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Ghosts, Ghouls, Pumpkins, Autumn Chill?: October 2015 DISCUSSION/OBS


UnionWeatherWx

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It's possible that we may have to wait until the second half of October or even November to start making a small dent

in the precipitation deficits. But by next March, this should all just be a distant memory with the raging STJ pattern

that is expected.

Latest modeling and ensembles are pretty dry now through the end of next week. Hoping that the tropical system comes to fruition and that it can find a way to sneak up here, although I am not sure the pattern would necessarily favor that to happen.

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We may just have to rely on the STJ seasonal response increasing from the second half of the fall right into the spring.

Exact timing of drought endings are tricky to forecast. 

The period around the 18th is still pretty interesting. The 12z GFS has some snow potential for Upstate NY and NNE on the 16th with a PNA spike and a trough dropping through the lakes.

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Eh, the problem this week is the Atlantic not cooperating. You have a +PNA spike ongoing and a rebounding NAO. Joaquin really disrupted the entire pattern. 

IMO, Joaquin's evolution and track were part of the pattern which is related to among other factors the Atlantic's SSTAs. The continuing strong PDO favors the PNA+.

 

If one factors the Atlantic's sea surface temperature anomalies (standardized for the 1950-95 period) into the picture those standardized anomalies were relatively close to those of 1982 heading toward October.

 

 

ENSOQPF09232015.jpg

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IMO, Joaquin's evolution and track were part of the pattern which is related to among other factors the Atlantic's SSTAs. The continuing strong PDO favors the PNA+.

 

If one factors the Atlantic's sea surface temperature anomalies (standardized for the 1950-95 period) into the picture those standardized anomalies were relatively close to those of 1982 heading toward October.

 

 

ENSOQPF09232015.jpg

How about the pacific SSTA?

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At least the current 30 day period is showing some slow improvement.

 

attachicon.gif30dPDeptNRCC.png

Yes, however a large majority of this fell within a 72 hour period last week. 

 

I hope we can get this trough to dig deeper and capture the tropical system forecasted to emerge from the deep tropics.

 

gfs_z500_vort_eus_46.png

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We have been lucking out in the 2000's since the sea of warm has generally been missing the winters

with the exception of a few stinkers.

Yeah, for sure. Winter lovers have had some great times, especially last year, and the Summer lovers, well that goes without saying. This was definitely the Summer for those who like that kind of weather, myself included.

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We have been lucking out in the 2000's since the sea of warmth has generally been missing the winters

with the exception of a few stinkers. But even years like 05-06 where the warmth intruded in January,

February really delivered.

It's the perfect setup for extreme weather enthusiasts, torrid hot summers and then cold and snow for the winter with numerous KU events

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Upton's AFD mentions the possibility of 80 Friday, but all depends on cloud/shower arrival:

-

TEMPERATURES MAY BE A LITTLE TRICKY ON FRIDAY AS WARM ADVECTION
PATTERN AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ADVECTS WARM AND RELATIVELY HUMID AIR
INTO THE REGION. THE LATEST MET GUIDANCE WAS WARMER THEN THE MAVS BY
SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS NE NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. HAVE SIDED
WITH WARMER GUIDANCE OVERALL...BUT DID NOT GO AS HIGH AS THE MET DUE
TO CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
SOME LOCATIONS APPROACH 80 DEGREES WITH THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE FRONT EVEN WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

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I saw the chemical release from downtown Manhattan, which surprised me. It must've been very bright.

You would not have expected to see the rocket itself. Sounding rockets burn out at much lower altitudes than orbital rockets; they accelerate quickly and then nearly their entire flight path is a pure ballistic trajectory.

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