• Member Statistics

    16,105
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    corvairbob
    Newest Member
    corvairbob
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
PSUBlizzicane2007

Tropical Storm Erika

Recommended Posts

Would really love if recon could make a pass near that potential low level center near St. Croix. They found a 1008mb center much farther south...TISX has gusted as high as 54 knots recently. Pressure starting to rise there again.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It'll go directly over Hispaniola and entrain a ton of dry air, the circulation will be sloppy for days after that. Will be a nice wet tropical storm for Florida though.

 

I've literally never seen a tropical cyclone hit hispaniola and still pose a significant threat to florida.

 

It's not impossible it'll end up going south of Florida too if it really gets demolished.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It'll go directly over Hispaniola and entrain a ton of dry air, the circulation will be sloppy for days after that. Will be a nice wet tropical storm for Florida though.

 

I've literally never seen a tropical cyclone hit hispaniola and still pose a significant threat to florida.

 

It's not impossible it'll end up going south of Florida too if it really gets demolished.

Jeanne 2004.  I remember tracking that storm and we wrote it off several times, especially when it made landfall in the Dominican Republic (where over 3000perished in Haiti).  Ended up striking Fl. around Stuart as a major.  Had to drive down and evacuate my elderly uncle and it was a very violent storm at landfall.  Very similar track so far to Erika.  Not saying Erika is a Jeanne, but interaction with Hispaniola doesn't always mean poof it's gone and they can and have gone on to have substantial impacts in Fl. and elsewhere.  Granted its less common than not

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That LLC on PR Radar isn't the same center the RECON is flying. There are multiple LLC's within the wave axis.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

No ... untrue. 

 

It briefly entered Cat 5 status approximately 400 KM E of the Leeward Islands, and in fact, Hugo was never IN the Caribbean during that phase. 

 

Not trying to be a dink, just pointing things out.   word

 

Hugo_track2.png

Anyone who says this is Hugo doesn't know their history.  This isn't going to be a significant system.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That LLC on PR Radar isn't the same center the RECON is flying. There are multiple LLC's within the wave axis.

its about time we start calling it for what it is. a wave. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That LLC on PR Radar isn't the same center the RECON is flying. There are multiple LLC's within the wave axis.

This is quite disorganized right now. After finding a very loose 1008mb on their first pass, it appears as though they're having trouble finding that same center again.

 

post-525-0-01228100-1440725869_thumb.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The feature on Puerto Rico radar appears to be the dominant center. The pressure at the St. Croix airport fell to 1006mb at 0z before rising to 1013mb. Winds were out of the east at 0z and have recently shifted to out of the southeast.

That's doesn't look like it has any west winds either judging by radar. I'm sticking with my gone at 11pm call.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That's doesn't look like it has any west winds either judging by radar. I'm sticking with my gone at 11pm call.

Prolly will be gone. Was a fun system to track tho. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

its about time we start calling it for what it is. a wave. 

 

A wave that produced 45G64 mph winds in St. Croix 2 hours ago.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.