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Winter 15-16 Discussion


griteater

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Pack - I just looked through a compare of the Oct and Nov releases of the UK (the UK Met Office GPC)

 

The pattern improved on the Pacific side, but was a little worse with the NAO (more noticeable for DJM than JFM).  Euro and UK suggesting we will continue to fight NAO issues this winter.  

Pac pattern for Jan-Mar avg is dynamite though on the UK...NCSnow says that's all we need  :snowman:

Aleutian Low with big ridging in NW Canada into the Arctic.  That would drop cold high pressures through central Canada into the Great Lakes.

 

Do you have a link to the N America view like you posted above?  I can't find them on the UK site

 

 

 

I'm not big on seasonal models and trying to analyze every minute detail but things like what I bolded are very important for both of our regions. One of the ways we can do ok this winter (assuming blocking is so-so at best) would be to not have the Pac jet just slamming into NA and screwing up our source region. SNE's latitude helps them quite a bit with a crappy pac because they can do just fine with a cold SE canada. We can't unfortunately. As you already pointed out, our good air masses for snow (generally speaking) drop down from central Canada into the OHV. This is especially important when there isn't a block. Then it comes down to timing of course but given enough chances even with a progressive flow it should probably produce at times. 

 

OTOH- We can survive a mildly hostile Pac as long as we have a block to keep things underneath us. Speaking the obvious of course but these details are really important and if we are going to focus on anything other than "good god will the AO/NAO ever be negative in winter again?!" we should keep our eyes peeled on heights in NW canada and how active the STJ storm track is. 

 

As a side note, GEFS ensembles are hinting towards a breakdown of the near record breaking +AO going on right now and potentially moving towards negative. It's muddy and far out there in time. Could mean nothing but worth watching. We absolutely don't want to start December like we started Nov. Ack. There are also signs of the beginnings of a trough getting carved out south of the aleutions. Probably the rosy weenie glasses taking over but I still have a hunch we get a wintry type pattern to start Dec. +PNA / -EPO kinda stuff. 

 

Thanks JoMo for posting the UK seasonal directory, here is the home directory too....

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images/prob_ensemble/

 

The NAO is dead to me, maybe after 2020 we will see a winter NAO again.  Plus the last time the NAO went super negative in a winter with a +NINO it just brought a bunch of heart ache (yes that little light green dot in central NC is MBY in the pic below).  Would rather have a 97/98 or 94/95 than another 09/10.

 

All I want is a low just SW of the aleutians and higher heights in NW Canada and let the chips fall where they may...I am sure we (central NC) will have several 35F rains but we should be able to squeeze out an event or two of slop.

post-2311-0-79676200-1447091505_thumb.pn

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That's right Grit. John Wayne only needed one bullett as well as americas greatest crime stopping deputy "Barney Fife". The big ridge taking up shop in the northeast pac will bring big snows, even in Apex. Forget the nao. It's the pretty girl in grade school that sticks her nose up at us every winter. She'Ll never give us SE boys the time day. Hasn't in 5 years and this one will probably be no different

 

Mixing metaphors?

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I'm not big on seasonal models and trying to analyze every minute detail but things like what I bolded are very important for both of our regions. One of the ways we can do ok this winter (assuming blocking is so-so at best) would be to not have the Pac jet just slamming into NA and screwing up our source region. SNE's latitude helps them quite a bit with a crappy pac because they can do just fine with a cold SE canada. We can't unfortunately. As you already pointed out, our good air masses for snow (generally speaking) drop down from central Canada into the OHV. This is especially important when there isn't a block. Then it comes down to timing of course but given enough chances even with a progressive flow it should probably produce at times. 

 

OTOH- We can survive a mildly hostile Pac as long as we have a block to keep things underneath us. Speaking the obvious of course but these details are really important and if we are going to focus on anything other than "good god will the AO/NAO ever be negative in winter again?!" we should keep our eyes peeled on heights in NW canada and how active the STJ storm track is. 

 

As a side note, GEFS ensembles are hinting towards a breakdown of the near record breaking +AO going on right now and potentially moving towards negative. It's muddy and far out there in time. Could mean nothing but worth watching. We absolutely don't want to start December like we started Nov. Ack. There are also signs of the beginnings of a trough getting carved out south of the aleutions. Probably the rosy weenie glasses taking over but I still have a hunch we get a wintry type pattern to start Dec. +PNA / -EPO kinda stuff. 

Yeah Bob no interest in seeing a mega AO Nov go into Dec.  I'm mostly interested in how the seasonals are trending as we get closer....particularly the Euro, EuroSips, and UK

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Thanks JoMo, I appreciate it

 

The NAO is dead to me, maybe after 2020 we will see a winter NAO again.  Plus the last time the NAO went super negative in a winter with a +NINO it just brought a bunch of heart ache (yes that little light green dot in central NC is MBY in the pic below).  Would rather have a 97/98 or 94/95 than another 09/10.

lol Pack, you are always in the green dot.

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Thanks JoMo for posting the UK seasonal directory, here is the home directory too....

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images/prob_ensemble/

 

The NAO is dead to me, maybe after 2020 we will see a winter NAO again.  Plus the last time the NAO went super negative in a winter with a +NINO it just brought a bunch of heart ache (yes that little light green dot in central NC is MBY in the pic below).  Would rather have a 97/98 or 94/95 than another 09/10.

 

All I want is a low just SW of the aleutians and higher heights in NW Canada and let the chips fall where they may...I am sure we (central NC) will have several 35F rains but we should be able to squeeze out an event or two of slop.

Basically what the CFSv2 is trending towards the last 7 days

post-785-0-47802600-1447096794_thumb.png

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If we get another year with a -EPO/+PNA combo wouldn't that bring in much colder air than expected? Also, when was the last time there was a -NAO/-EPO combo and what kind of weather would that produce? I think someone said a full latitude trough but don't remember.

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If we get another year with a -EPO/+PNA combo wouldn't that bring in much colder air than expected? Also, when was the last time there was a -NAO/-EPO combo and what kind of weather would that produce? I think someone said a full latitude trough but don't remember.

 

It would look like this....heh...

 

gfs_z500a_nhem_53.png

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As we have stated the PNA is going to be key this winter; especially with the strong el nino. If it's not positive, I think our chances will be near zero.    

 

I agree, strong PNA would be the only thing to defend against the heat of the EL NINO!!! (I keep picturing Chris Farley)  NAO to me is more about storm track and less about cold air delivery, but I could be wrong.  With our nino STJ, I think we'll get plenty of systems riding south.  PNA/EPO will give us our trough and cold air. 

 

It would look like this....heh...

 

 

 

Hopefully it'll look like that in January....not betting on it coming to fruition in November.  (Is that what's called an "omega block" by the way??)

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CWG just went warm and slightly below snow

Makes sense, no denying how strong this Nino is and the lack of -AO (strat is not helping, atleast for awhile) is a death knell to any cold. I am leaning to more of 91-92, 94-95 blend. I would take a 97-98 right now, atleast we got 2-3". Would be shocked if JB doesn't throw in the towel with his final update.

CFS FTW?

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Makes sense, no denying how strong this Nino is and the lack of -AO (strat is not helping, atleast for awhile) is a death knell to any cold. I am leaning to more of 91-92, 94-95 blend. I would take a 97-98 right now, atleast we got 2-3". Would be shocked if JB doesn't throw in the towel with his final update.

CFS FTW?

 

Matt and the CWG are always conservative in general when it comes to snow. And they should be because our area is almost always make or break by getting lucky with 1-2 events. Fail on those and fail on winter. The last 2 years here were without question flukes on all levels. Felt like stealing  in a way. Back to back years with significant March snow is just plain weird. 

 

CWG made the important point that one or 2 storms that pan out can significantly change the seasonal outcome. So a disclaimer of sorts. Another point they made which I strongly agree with is a substantially lower # of events compared to the last 2 years. I'm ready to just let the chips fall and stop reading long range forecasts. Everything that can be said has already been said. Getting close to the point for "real time" analysis. Just a few weeks away really. 

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Makes sense, no denying how strong this Nino is and the lack of -AO (strat is not helping, atleast for awhile) is a death knell to any cold. I am leaning to more of 91-92, 94-95 blend. I would take a 97-98 right now, atleast we got 2-3". Would be shocked if JB doesn't throw in the towel with his final update.

CFS FTW?

 

lol. Panic already? It's still early-mid Nov. 

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lol. Panic already? It's still early-mid Nov. 

 

Not panic'd, relatively calm on our upcoming torch winter, LOL....in all seriousness I would be much more upbeat if it wasn't for the +QBO/low solar.  Also this nino is really really strong and only getting stronger, hard to ignore what happened in 98, regardless of where the forcing is going to setup.

 

looking-over-cliff-edge-grampians1.jpg

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Matt and the CWG are always conservative in general when it comes to snow. And they should be because our area is almost always make or break by getting lucky with 1-2 events. Fail on those and fail on winter. The last 2 years here were without question flukes on all levels. Felt like stealing in a way. Back to back years with significant March snow is just plain weird.

CWG made the important point that one or 2 storms that pan out can significantly change the seasonal outcome. So a disclaimer of sorts. Another point they made which I strongly agree with is a substantially lower # of events compared to the last 2 years. I'm ready to just let the chips fall and stop reading long range forecasts. Everything that can be said has already been said. Getting close to the point for "real time" analysis. Just a few weeks away really.

Agree 100%. It shouldn't come as a shock that 1-2 events can make or break Nino years especially for North Carolina. That's always been the case, and it inflates location specific snow totals in those years so when people are analyzing the analogs they forget to take # of events into account.
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Matt and the CWG are always conservative in general when it comes to snow. And they should be because our area is almost always make or break by getting lucky with 1-2 events. Fail on those and fail on winter. The last 2 years here were without question flukes on all levels. Felt like stealing  in a way. Back to back years with significant March snow is just plain weird. 

 

CWG made the important point that one or 2 storms that pan out can significantly change the seasonal outcome. So a disclaimer of sorts. Another point they made which I strongly agree with is a substantially lower # of events compared to the last 2 years. I'm ready to just let the chips fall and stop reading long range forecasts. Everything that can be said has already been said. Getting close to the point for "real time" analysis. Just a few weeks away really. 

 

I would be much more optimistic until I saw the relationship between w-QBO and low solar and SSW's.  But, still with that I think we see some snow this winter in Feb, we got snow in 95 and 98 and those winters sucked.   I was much more optimistic about last winter and that was a meh winter down here, this winter I always thought we would be in the 4-6" range, so roughly 75% of climo for us, a little better than 98.  Still looks like a reasonable guess for snowfall, I definitely don't see a blockbuster with lack of blocking most likely...

 

Top 10 Nino's and snowfall

 

1878 (not sure, this was very warm though)

1998 (2.5")

1983 (11.8")

1889 (12.2")

1973 (11.3")

1903 (0")

1897 (9.3")

1941 (0")

1966 (12.3")

1992 (0")

1958 (7.9")

 

4 Dud's, 5 above average and 1 avg (coin flip based on climo)

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Agree 100%. It shouldn't come as a shock that 1-2 events can make or break Nino years especially for North Carolina. That's always been the case, and it inflates location specific snow totals in those years so when people are analyzing the analogs they forget to take # of events into account.

 

Agree on less events and thus less snowfall, unless a freak miracle happens (ala 1973, 1980, 1988).  So from what you and Bob have said we are all in agreement that this winter will lack a consistent snowy pattern and that we will need a miracle storm in Feb/March if we are to see above average snowfall.  100% agree...

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