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June 2015 Discussion & Observations


dmillz25

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Even if we get more CAPE into the region the greatest lift is going to be over upstate NY closer to the shortwave. That doesn't mean we won't get a storm or two but it should be a pretty quick moving hit or miss type deal. Not like yesterday where we had multiple lines congeal into a big convective mass, that will be 300 miles North of us.

 

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15Z HRRR Composite Radar outlook does show some heavier showers starting>>> 2:15PM and ending within an hour @ NYC.

16Z HRRR keeps the same theme.   But current radar  does not look as bad as indicated at 60min mark (present time) on the output.  However the theoretical convective temp. of about 80 has nearly been reached now.

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West of the city has done well.   We've had some .05-.15 type deals since then, but nothing of significance.

I'm awfully glad to not be the one currently getting the shaft. Two thunderstorms at home today since sunrise, almost 1.5" in the bucket in the last 36 hours. Closing in on 4" for the month.

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All NYC stations are above average for June rainfall (not that it matters much at this point) because of the rain on the 1st, YTD is about -2.5-3.5 across the board. I'm not really worried about not getting storms the past week as it looks pretty wet going forward, it's the summer and people always get Shaffer left and right. I just hope we get a nice areawide tropical system (or remnants, for those who are a little touchy because of sandy) at some point during the summer.

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