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2015 Severe Weather Thread


Hvward
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1295
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1214 PM CDT SAT JUL 04 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC...FAR SE VA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

   VALID 041714Z - 041915Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS ERN NC AND
   FAR SE VA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR BOWING LINE
   SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF WIND DAMAGE AND THE AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A
   POTENTIAL WW.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS SEVERAL SUBTLE
   SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WLY/SWLY FLOW OF THE LARGE
   UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS. THE LEAD
   SHORTWAVE IS MOVING THROUGH WRN PA WHILE A TRAILING SHORTWAVE IS
   MOVING IN WRN WV. THE COMBINATION OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
   TRAILING SHORTWAVE AND A VERY MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS CNTRL/ERN NC HAS
   RESULTED IN INCREASED CONVECTION OVER THE PAST HOUR. THIS TREND IS
   EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES NEWD AND DAYTIME
   HEATING FURTHER DESTABILIZES THE AIRMASS.

   RECENT VAD DATA FROM RAX AND 12Z SOUNDING DATA FROM MHX SHOW
   MODERATE...UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW FROM ABOUT 1 TO 5 KM. WHILE THIS
   FLOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...IT SHOULD HELP PROMOTE AT LEAST
   SOME STORM ORGANIZATION AND A RESULTING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS
   WITH BOWING LINE SEGMENTS. GREATEST UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT IS
   STORM COVERAGE. TRENDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE MONITORED AND A WATCH
   MAY BE NECESSARY IF STORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE.

   ..MOSIER/MEAD.. 07/04/2015
 

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Looks like I am a little too far west at Lake Gaston. Not sure if that discussion includes this area or not.

This area being monitored for an upgrade to a warning. American Weather detected strong whining in the area with favorable conditions to promote upscale growth. Probability of an upgrade at 70%.

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The cell approaching me is borderline severe should be fun.....people up the street have like 5 tents up in their yard and 50 people there for the 4th....gonna suck for them

 

Especially since they didn't invite you. Storm looks pretty nasty heading your way.

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Especially since they didn't invite you. Storm looks pretty nasty heading your way.

 

Yeah I don't know em and I am cooking wings now getting ready to headto my brother in laws around 5 for chicken quarters and brats on the grill.....got 4-5 cases of beer and $400 worth of SC finest illegal fireworks to consume as well....

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Have a video camera ready. lol

 

I'm 20 miles to his west and had some solid and steady winds with it. Not severe by any means but just like a constant steady 30mph wind for 5-10 minutes. Seeing how bad our severe season has been it was at least a fun storm to experience. 

 

Why are some storms so electric with nonstop lightning and then some have no lightning?

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I'm 20 miles to his west and had some solid and steady winds with it. Not severe by any means but just like a constant steady 30mph wind for 5-10 minutes. Seeing how bad our severe season has been it was at least a fun storm to experience. 

 

Why are some storms so electric with nonstop lightning and then some have no lightning?

 

temps in the mid to upper levels mostly, last week it was colder aloft so more ice up top in the storms, so they were all really loaded with lightning, today its much warmer aloft so there isn't as much ice.....

 

Storm got a bit of a twist to it on the S side nothing to crazy but its trying to rotate there....

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Glad the flood watch got extended another day!

 

Turned out to be a nice day here.  Sunny, dry, and 86°.  Amazingly enough, HRRR has those storms in Alabama/Mississippi moving north of the upstate and missing all but the western fringe.  Hoping it's bias of keeping things too far north the last few days stays in play and keeps them over the upstate.

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Turned out to be a nice day here. Sunny, dry, and 86°. Amazingly enough, HRRR has those storms in Alabama/Mississippi moving north of the upstate and missing all but the western fringe. Hoping it's bias of keeping things too far north the last few days stays in play and keeps them over the upstate.

It's not the storms near Birmingham right now is it? Those are heading ESE, maybe a new batch that will go through ATL overnight and die in greenville , again
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temps in the mid to upper levels mostly, last week it was colder aloft so more ice up top in the storms, so they were all really loaded with lightning, today its much warmer aloft so there isn't as much ice.....

 

Storm got a bit of a twist to it on the S side nothing to crazy but its trying to rotate there....

 

Yep, it is believed that the transition from rain to grapel/snow in the upper atmosphere could be the reason for lightning, but it is my understanding that it is still somewhat of an unknown as to why lightning forms.  With the ground being positively charged, the ions in a cloud separate and the negatives move to the base of the cloud while the top anvil becomes positively charged.  When enough energy is built up, it must be released and the positive charge moves through the negative region of the base to connect with the positively charged ground.  Lightning is a very fascinating thing and something I am slightly obsessed with lol.  I love to discuss it.

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A severe Whining warning for northern Union county SC including the town of Jonesville.  :)

Hopefully that can be canceled by tomorrow evening. As far as severe weather goes, if we had gotten enough instability around here the last couple of days, things could have been rough with the 30-40 knot 850 jet we had.

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Turned out to be a nice day here. Sunny, dry, and 86°. Amazingly enough, HRRR has those storms in Alabama/Mississippi moving north of the upstate and missing all but the western fringe. Hoping it's bias of keeping things too far north the last few days stays in play and keeps them over the upstate.

The HRRR was apparently correct for once , when it shows the precip moving N of everybody !

Radar confirming that right now!

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