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Severe storms 2015 general chatter

Ian

By Ian,
in Mid Atlantic

Corn fuel  

64 members have voted

  1. 1. When will DCA report its first spring thunder?

  2. 2. How many days with severe weather watches in the subforum in 2015?


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Amped

Amped

Posted
Posted

I hate west winds on severe days :(.

They could mix out some of the high dews. However, fast west winds aloft are what we need for derechos, and we have those tomorrow, so if a line can get going perpindicular to the front along the MD line tomorrow, we will have a good chance of severe wind.

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yoda

yoda

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West wind severe days can be big time overperformers so long as upstream initiation/organization is sufficient. Both the infamous 2012 derecho and the July 2010 screamer occurred on west wind days w/ mega-CAPE.

 

FWIW, 00z NAM sounding at 21z for KIAD is showing ~5000 SBCAPE with 3000+ MLCAPE 

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Eskimo Joe

Eskimo Joe

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If we can keep the debris clouds from PA out of here and not mix too much today could be fun.  I'm liking any place north of I-66 right now.  Best case would be quick development and maybe a categorical upgrade to a MOD risk for damaging winds given the decent bulk shear and PVA just to our northwest.  Some of the short term models continue to hint at two distinct robust multi-cell clusters rolling off the mountains and affecting DC western suburbs and Philly.  

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Kmlwx

Kmlwx

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Okay just this tidbit and then I'm going back to the thread for today - 

Thursday doesn't appear to have a problem with shear - it's instability. SREF (at range I know) has essentially NO instability north of DC and it's a super tight gradient. If that boundary is south of you your risk is little to none IMO. But it's so close we should continue to monitor of course. But SREF showing 50kt pockets of bulk shear...so if we can get the instability than it could be bonkers. 

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mattie g

mattie g

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Okay just this tidbit and then I'm going back to the thread for today - 

Thursday doesn't appear to have a problem with shear - it's instability. SREF (at range I know) has essentially NO instability north of DC and it's a super tight gradient. If that boundary is south of you your risk is little to none IMO. But it's so close we should continue to monitor of course. But SREF showing 50kt pockets of bulk shear...so if we can get the instability than it could be bonkers. 

 

It's just so rare for us to get shear and instability together in one nice package that it's hard to ever expect it to come together.

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