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Severe storms 2015 general chatter

Ian

By Ian,
in Mid Atlantic

Corn fuel  

64 members have voted

  1. 1. When will DCA report its first spring thunder?

  2. 2. How many days with severe weather watches in the subforum in 2015?


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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
359 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE MIDWEST WILL REACH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
TODAY...THEN DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOW
PRESSURE LOOKS TO PASS NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE WAS SLIDING EAST OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHILE A COLD FRONT LAY TO OUR NORTHWEST
EXTENDING FROM A LOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO SOUTHWESTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARDS CHICAGO...ST. LOUIS...AND OKLAHOMA
CITY. AT THIS HOUR THERE ARE PLENTY OF STORMS STILL GOING ON WITH
THE FRONT OVER ILLINOIS AND MISSOURI...BUT STORMS FURTHER
NORTHEAST ARE WEAKENING TO SHOWERS. NEVERTHELESS...CLOUD DEBRIS IS
ALREADY STARTING TO MOVE OVERHEAD...SO THE QUESTION OF HOW MUCH
INSOLATION WE CAN GET TODAY FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS A VALID
ONE.

SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE GFS SHOW PLENTY
OF CAPE...SHEAR...AND HELICITY...SO THERE IS DEFINITELY POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER *IF* STORMS CAN GET FIRED UP. MODELS
SUGGEST SOME EARLY CELLS MAY POP ACROSS OUR CWA IN THE AFTERNOON
BUT THE MAIN LINE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP CLOSER TO THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON APPEARS MORE LIKELY TO HOLD OFF TIL VERY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE...TODAY WILL FEATURE SOME TIMES OF SUN AS SOME BREAKS
DEVELOP IN THE DEBRIS CLOUDS...AND THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE WELL INTO THE 80S. HUMIDITY WILL
ALSO INCREASE...SO A MORE SUMMERY DAY IS ON TAP FOR SURE.

STORMS WHICH DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WILL ARRIVE
THIS EVENING. WITH PLENTY OF WIND ALOFT DEFINITELY POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AT THE LEAST...ASSUMING THE STORMS ARRIVE BEFORE
CAPE BEGINS TO SIGNIFICANTLY WANE AFTER SUNSET. ONCE THAT BEGINS
TO HAPPEN...STORMS ARE LIKELY TO START WEAKENING TO SHOWERS AND
LOSE THEIR SEVERE POTENTIAL. THE FRONT ITSELF WILL BE SLOW AND
WON`T TRULY ENTER THE CWA UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH

CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP LOWS UP INTO THE SULTRY 70S ALONG I-95.

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
402 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ011-013-014-016>018-508-VAZ052>057-081515-
CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
PATAPSCO RIVER INCLUDING BALTIMORE HARBOR-
CHESTER RIVER TO QUEENSTOWN MD-EASTERN BAY-
CHOPTANK RIVER TO CAMBRIDGE MD AND THE LITTLE CHOPTANK RIVER-
PATUXENT RIVER TO BROOMES ISLAND MD-
TANGIER SOUND AND THE INLAND WATERS SURROUNDING BLOODSWORTH
ISLAND-DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-
ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-SOUTHEAST HARFORD-
PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-
402 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY...TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
CENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE DISTRICT OF
COLUMBIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...PARTICULARLY FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA.
SEVERE THREATS ARE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES.

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high risk

high risk

Posted
Posted

   it's an awesome looking set of simulated reflectivity plots for sure, but I wonder if the early line may be bogus.   The mode has a bias for heating too quickly and allowing convective temps to be reached, and the 2-m temperature forecasts show low 90s by early afternoon west of DC that allows the line to form.    That may be too hot, and initiation may not occur until later.     But I certainly can't rule out the early storm scenario.

 

 

10z HRRR brings a line through between 3 and 4pm... than another line between 7 and 8pm

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snowfan

snowfan

Posted
Posted

4K seems to focus on central/southern PA for the best of it. Regular NAM does bring a larger line through our area like you mentioned. 

12z NAM composite radar has a huge line (squall line? QLCS?) entering DCA around 8/9 PM and then another at 11PM... or are they the same line?

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Eskimo Joe

Eskimo Joe

Posted
Posted

The 12z sounding from IAD has a convective temp of 91 degrees.  That's going to be incredibly difficult to achieve given the cool start to the morning and persistent mid and high level clouds.  Even with the little bit of clearing that we have been seeing over the past hour, things are going to have to really cook today.  MOS guidance only has IAD and DCA topping out in the mid 80s at best.

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

The 12z sounding from IAD has a convective temp of 91 degrees.  That's going to be incredibly difficult to achieve given the cool start to the morning and persistent mid and high level clouds.  Even with the little bit of clearing that we have been seeing over the past hour, things are going to have to really cook today.  MOS guidance only has IAD and DCA topping out in the mid 80s at best.

 

I have blue skies here pretty much... some high-level clouds still

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Ian

Ian

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Convective temp prob doesn't matter much. Maybe hurts for isolated cells out front but that's never a good bet anyway. Still looks about the same to me. Should get at least a line of storms through much of the area.. Timing questionable but we'll see.

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

1630z OTLK from SPC is out early... relevant part for us:

 

 


..WV/PA/MD/VA    WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A WELL-DEFINED UPPER TROUGH ROTATING ACROSS  THE MID MS VALLEY. WHILE THE MAIN COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS  TROUGH IS BACK ACROSS PARTS OF MO/IA...SEVERAL PRE-FRONTAL BANDS OF  CONVECTION ARE NOTED THIS MORNING.  ONE BAND CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM  EASTERN OH INTO WESTERN KY.  STRONG HEATING AHEAD OF THIS CONVECTION  WILL LIKELY RESULT IN INTENSIFICATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE  STORMS CROSS THE APPALACHIANS...POSING A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS TO  PARTS OF PA/MD AND NORTHERN VA.  SOME POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR MORE  ISOLATED STORMS TO FORM AHEAD OF THE LINE.  RELATIVELY STRONG  EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND A RISK  OF A TORNADO OR TWO FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA.
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