aldie 22 Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Hasn't every storm been canceled the night before by the 0z nam? Man we are a gullible group Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 18Z GFS was earlier in with the good precip than 18Z NAM.... Of course they could still look different on the 0Z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 There are general rule of thumbs to look for with thicknesses. Google each of the ones I gave you to get the general numbers for freezing/snow etc. soundings are much better to look at but thicknesses are another tool. Good evening for learning in our sub-forum. http://www.theweatherprediction.com/winterwx/thicknesscriteria/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 nothing has fallen according to the computer that's virga huh? http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_015_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=00¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=015&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150301+00+UTC&ps=area&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 I do wonder how accurate your map will be, but yeah, that radar is whacked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Hasn't every storm been canceled the night before by the 0z nam? Man we are a gullible group 1.2-3.2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Probably can cut the QPF in half, but 00z NAM with the soundings verbatim make it look almost WSW/ISW worthy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 I do wonder how accurate your map will be, but yeah, that radar is whacked well, it's the ncep map sooooo.... also, per NAM numbers, only .04" falls by 1PM....note the run isn't finished, but it's currently out to 36 hrs. (this is BWI) http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_kbwi.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Hasn't every storm been canceled the night before by the 0z nam? Man we are a gullible group I thought we were just discussing the NAM....anyone suggest that anything is, in fact, a fail? We can't even agree what the NAM says, let alone deem it accurate! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Non event on the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Probably can cut the QPF in half, but 00z NAM with the soundings verbatim make it look almost WSW/ISW worthy LOL...it's already cut them in half Yoda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Non event on the nam Exactly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Exactly Perhaps out there... but not at DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 I thought we were just discussing the NAM....anyone suggest that anything is, in fact, a fail? We can't even agree what the NAM says, let alone deem it accurate! lol It's wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Perhaps out there... but not at DCA I'll bet it's more of an event here when it's said and done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 It's wrong Why is it wrong? Not trying to be an @$$, just asking your opinion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 well, it's the ncep map sooooo.... also, per NAM numbers, only .04" falls by 1PM....note the run isn't finished, but it's currently out to 36 hrs. (this is BWI) http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_kbwi.txt So..you get a 1/4" of snow, more than a dusting. That's something, isn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Somebody here wrote 0.4 inches at BWI at hr 24. That seems like an icy event to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 It's wrong well, nobody can say for certain if it's right or wrong, but since it does have the 0Z data unlike any other models, I think we'd probably have to wait for the other models to trickle in before laying any particular odds one way or the other Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Why is it wrong? Not trying to be an @$$, just asking your opinion Because it's been so variable today. I'm half joking Yoda. How would I know if it's wrong. I just place more faith in stability Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Somebody here wrote 0.4 inches at BWI at hr 24. That seems like an icy event to me I said DCA in my post if we were to accept NAM verbatim We will see what 4km NAM says in a few Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 So..you get a 1/4" of snow, more than a dusting. That's something, isn't it? don't know if the .04 is all snow since the 850 temp at 1PM is +.6C and I haven't looked at soundings yet probably sleet/snow mix verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Because it's been so variable today. I'm half joking Yoda. How would I know if it's wrong. I just place more faith in stability Ah ok, sorry if i came off harsh. Hope we all get some decent wintry precip tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 It's the nam, guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 I said DCA in my post if we were to accept NAM verbatim We will see what 4km NAM says in a few So you think .38 qpf into 30.5 2m temps with a bunch of other levels roasting in early March at 2pm is an ice event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 It's the nam, guys It's radar and water vapor loop and wet finger in the air time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 I know I'm sick to death of that precip hole constantly showing up out here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 So you think .38 qpf into 30.5 2m temps with a bunch of other levels roasting in early March at 2pm is an ice event? During the "heaviest" FZRN, DCA is 28 degrees at surface, so yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 I'll bet it's more of an event here when it's said and done Please take that kind of talk to the Frederick Co. , VA subforum. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 We aren't getting an ice storm. No one near the cities or in the immediate suburbs will get anything more than slush. Impactful ice storms around the cities require massively thick cloud decks during peak climo with powerful highs seeping in fresh cold air. I am not talking about something that impacts the boonies and breaks some branches in the forest. That isn't an ice storm in the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 It's the nam, guys I don't know what to make of the gfs getting wetter all day and the nam getting drier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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