John1122 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I'm not going to crack double digits. The sun is now going behind the mountain. It's exceedingly rare to stay under 10 degrees at any point here. Let alone for mid to late February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 MRX didn't change to a warning yet, I guess they'll hold off until tomorrow morning. Mainly because they are going with the Euro and not the NAM/GFS, thus bringing in precip later in the night. They bumped up my snow totals in gate city a little bit, now they say 1-2 inches friday night, 2-4 inches of snow, .1 of FRZ rain, saturday before 1. So 3-6 inches of snow .10 inches of Frz, hmmm that's not grounds for a winter storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 18z NAM meteograms show: TYS: Snow - trace Ice - .44 Sleet - .35 TRI: Snow - 7.2 Ice - .23 Sleet - trace CSV: Snow - .7 Ice - .81 Sleet - .5 CHA: Snow - trace Ice - .08 Sleet - .5 BNA: Snow - .4 Ice - .35 Sleet - .2 MEM: Snow - none Ice - .49 Sleet - .14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 MRX didn't change to a warning yet, I guess they'll hold off until tomorrow morning. Mainly because they are going with the Euro and not the NAM/GFS, thus bringing in precip later in the night. Euro has been on a hot streak. But I bet moisture pushes out ahead. I felt like the NAM handled precip onset and surface freezing line well for the last storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Second NAM run in a row to put ridiculous amounts of freezing rain in Crossville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 18z NAM meteograms show: TYS: Snow - trace Ice - .44 Sleet - .35 TRI: Snow - 7.2 Ice - .23 Sleet - trace CSV: Snow - .7 Ice - .81 Sleet - .5 CHA: Snow - trace Ice - .08 Sleet - .5 BNA: Snow - .4 Ice - .35 Sleet - .2 MEM: Snow - none Ice - .49 Sleet - .14 Thanks for posting these. That would be quite the winter storm for the Tri-Cities. With the Euro not really on board to that extent, it's hard to go all in on it, but the potential is fun. One thought I have is the initial thump of precipitation for east TN being mostly frozen, and then going to light rain or drizzle until the main low comes through. Might help parts of northeast TN hold onto snow on the ground if it happens that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I'm not going to crack double digits. The sun is now going behind the mountain. It's exceedingly rare to stay under 10 degrees at any point here. Let alone for mid to late February. They mentioned in their comments that criteria might be met... MRX comments.... OTHERWISE...ADJUSTED SNOW AND ICE AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY TO SHOW MORE SNOW NORTH OF I-40 AND JUST A LITTLE MORE ICE ACCUMULATION FOR SE TN... ALL IN LINE WITH NEIGHBORING NWS OFFICES AND WWD GRPAHICS. WINTER STORM WATCH WAS EXPANDED NE TO INCLUDE NE TN AND SW VA...WITH A LATER STARTING AND ENDING TIME TO MESH WITH JKL/RLX/RNK WATCH TIMING. THE POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY THERE TO GET WARNING AMOUNTS OF ICE OR SNOW BEFORE THE CHANGE TO RAIN OCCURS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 15z SREF Snow: The SREF plume mean snow for TRI is about 3 inches. As you go up I-81 the means ramp up quickly, as that map shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Second NAM run in a row to put ridiculous amounts of freezing rain in Crossville. With the freezing rain already on trees...this could be pretty bad if it verifies - especially for you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I was just going to say the 15z SREF isn't nearly as enthused as the NAM/GFS, though amounts (specifically for southwest VA) were bumped up from the prior run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I can't imagine how the ground will look here if we get .5+ ZR on top of the snow/sleet we have and another inch or two we may get. MRX seems to be downplaying ice amounts here compared to what the models are showing. It's usually very hard to scour out cold air here, especially such extreme cold. They aren't committing to any type of accumulation in the watch, just saying that a significant amount is possible. Normally their terms are: Light: 1-3 inches of snow/up to .10 ice Moderate: 2-4 inches of snow/ up to .25 ice Significant: 4+ inches of snow/.25+ ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 15z SREF Snow: The SREF plume mean snow for TRI is about 3 inches. As you go up I-81 the means ramp up quickly, as that map shows. I felt like the SREF did ok with the last storm...but seemed to miss on temps. But it is not too far off from my thinking. Ice should be the main concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Anyone have UKMET or Canadian? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Anyone have UKMET or Canadian? Ukie 2-4 for much of TN but there is a line from about Cookville over to I-81 and up that has 10+ inches on the clown. SE KY with 10+ as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I guess 3-5 inches of snow here per my current forecast with not a lot of ice. I fear MRX may be heavy on the snow and underestimating the ice but they are the pros. FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.SNOW LIKELY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO1 INCH. HIGH 24. SOUTH WINDS 10 MPH OR LESS. CHANCEOF SNOW 60 PERCENT..FRIDAY NIGHT...SNOW IN THE EVENING...THEN SNOW...LIGHT SLEET ANDLIGHT FREEZING RAIN AFTER 1 AM. BRISK. NOT AS COLD. SNOW ANDSLEET ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE. ICE ACCUMULATION OFUP TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE AROUND23. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100PERCENT..SATURDAY...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...VERY LIGHT SLEET...RAIN AND ACHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.BRISK. NOT AS COLD. LIGHT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.HIGH 39. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH.CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Anyone have UKMET or Canadian? The Canadian frozen qpf pretty much shows .25 snow, .25 freezing rain, and .3-.4 of sleet over most of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Anyone have UKMET or Canadian? A visual. I wanted to provide this because this seems to show the snow totals are only limited by the trajectory of the precipitation. Wherever that "tongue" of heavier qpf goes is likely where the bigger snow totals will be in the state of TN. It matches up very well. Graphics courtesy of Weatherbell. I highly recommend their site and will gladly give them a plug for their model suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 A visual. I wanted to provide this because this seems to show the snow totals are only limited by the trajectory of the precipitation. Wherever that "tongue" of heavier qpf goes is likely where the bigger snow totals will be in the state of TN. It matches up very well. Graphics courtesy of Weatherbell. I highly recommend their site and will gladly give them a plug for their model suite. Excellent post. Interesting to see the NAM trend south today. What are the trends on the other models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 I would have them wait for sure. Wx looks pretty bad out that way...pretty much the whole mixed bag and a lot of it. Thinking if they can maybe get to Bowling Green by 9pm tomorrow, stay there overnight and leave for GA in the morning hoping it warms up enough. But not sure of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Excellent post. Interesting to see the NAM trend south today. What are the trends on the other models? Someone else will have to tackle that question. I have been swamped today and haven't had time to look. I think most modeling has slipped to the south and east a bit with the low pressure and track. Maybe in response to the models now seeing the dense cold air?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 15z SREF Snow: The SREF plume mean snow for TRI is about 3 inches. As you go up I-81 the means ramp up quickly, as that map sho SREF and NAM couldn't possibly be on further ends of the playing field...this will be super interesting to see. The synoptics of this event make it kind of rare so iI guess it shouldn't suprise me that snow totals are going to be all over the place for this. As bad as I would love to see the NAM win out, it just looks too freaky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Someone else will have to tackle that question. I have been swamped today and haven't had time to look. I think most modeling has slipped to the south and east a bit with the low pressure and track. Maybe in response to the models now seeing the dense cold air?? 24 hrs ago the NAM shifted E the GFS SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 18z GFS clown: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 This looks to be a very minor event down here if the NAM and GFS are correct. We get a lull in the precip after getting about 1 inch of snow, then when it resumes, it is just plain rain with maybe an hour of ZR. Will probably cause a headache for the afternoon rush, but as long as it doesn't trend south, I can't see verifying a warning down here for snow or ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Interesting 18z RGEM depiction of precip type (it's through the entire frozen period now): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Excellent post. Interesting to see the NAM trend south today. What are the trends on the other models? I don't know how much further it can go, but the GFS at 18z is about 200 miles S and E of where it was at 00z last night. Last night it went from N Texas, Oklahoma, far NW Arkansas. 18z goes from SE Arkansas up through Middle TN into central Kentucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Hi-Res NAM precip types through HR60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 19, 2015 Share Posted February 19, 2015 Hi-Res NAM precip types through HR60. That would be one helluva highland rim/plateau ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 That would be one helluva highland rim/plateau ice storm. I find it interesting that the dominant precip type appears to be sleet for the Valley while as you noted the freezing rain threat is very high for the plateau, with not much snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 NWS Morristown Graphic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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