SR Airglow Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 We tried this with the last event and it seemed like people enjoyed it, so we'll do it again for this one and hopefully we'll get some more people to join in on the fun. The official rules and scoring guidelines are below, but basically, your goal is to forecast the amount of snow that falls at some of the major climate and reporting stations in our region, as well as the jackpot amount and location. I think it's a fun way to both quantify your thoughts and see how accurate you were, and it's definitely made me a better regionwide forecaster as a result. If you want to give it a try, leave a post in this thread with your predictions for each of the stations and the jackpot amount/location by 1201 PM Saturday and I'll add it all up when the event is over(I've got a program that does all the calculations and scoring so it's a simple task) and let you all know how you did. Inaugural AMWX NE Snowfall Forecast Contest Official Rules Goal: Earn as few points as you can by predicting snowfall as close to the actual number as possible. How does it work?Below is the list of stations that will participate in the contest. ALBBTVPWM GYXBOS BOXORHBDLBDR Also, for a bonus Jackpot amount Jackpot location(Must be a city, state combo or the scoring program will reject it and you will be disqualified from the bonus). How do you get points? (This is a bad thing, you don’t want points!)For each event, submit an exact guess for each station by the deadline posted. You will get three points for every inch you bust, high or low, rounded to the nearest tenth of an inch. If calls are submitted after the deadline, you will be charged a penalty of 10% of your subtotal score per hour the call is late, no exceptions.If you do not make a prediction for a station, you will be charged the highest differential of any of the stations that you did make guesses for.If a station does not report to NWS and it is clear that they received accumulation, I will use an average of the three PNS reports geographically closest to the missing station.If a station is clearly over or under reported, I will accept an observation from a known poster on any weather forum or a series of nearby observations refuting it from a PNS. It must be a poster who is known to be legitimate, and you must post the post/observation in this thread. I will not be reviewing reports, you must bring them to my attention.How can you lose points?(Which is a GOOD thing!)Perfect: If you guess exactly right on a station (defined as within .1” either way), you will get 2 points removed from your score. Jackpot: Every person should choose an amount that they think will be the jackpot, as well as a location where they think it will be(City/Town name and state preferred). This is for all New England/Northeast NWS offices, that is, ALY, BTV, BOX, GYX, OKX, PHI, and CAR (Any part of these offices CWA’s is acceptable, including if it falls outside of New England).Points can be removed as follows:The person closest to the jackpot total, high or low, will receive a 5 point deduction from their score.The person closest to the jackpot location will receive a 5 point deduction from their score. Please ask any questions you may have, and good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 ALB -- This one is Albany. I know this one. -- 3"BTV -- Burlington, Vermont? Two for two! -- 2"PWM -- Pwimmouth. I'm thinking Pwimmouth. -- 17" GYX -- This is where the Steve live. -- 17"BOS -- Airport Upon Sea, Massachusetts -- 7" BOX -- Taunton. Did you think you would trick me? -- 6"ORH -- This one is Will's house in Worcester. -- 6"BDL -- No clue -- 3"BDR -- Probably not even real -- 4.5" Also, for a bonus Jackpot amount: You used a banned word -- 30" Jackpot location: You are now banned -- Brunswick, ME I must say with Maine and NH in the game more than anyone, it seems logical to include stations like Bangor, for instance. Also I got 7/9 right so I deserve snacks. EDIT: I actually participated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Here we go then ... note edited at 0520 EST. ALB __ 4.5"BTV __ 3.5"PWM __ 23.7* GYX __ 25.0 "BOS __ 17.2" BOX __ 13.3"ORH __ 15.2"BDL __ 8.9"BDR __ 5.7" max will be 36" Machias ME Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 ALB: 4" BTV: 4"PWM: 12" GYX: 20"BOS: 14" BOX: 11"ORH: 12"BDL: 6"BDR: 5" Extra Credit: PVD: 8" CHH: 10"Max Snowfall: Pembroke, ME - 30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 ALB -- This one is Albany. I know this one. BTV -- Burlington, Vermont? Two for two! PWM -- Pwimmouth. I'm thinking Pwimmouth. GYX -- This is where the Steve live. BOS -- Airport Upon Sea, Massachusetts BOX -- Taunton. Did you think you would trick me? ORH -- This one is Will's house in Worcester. BDL -- No clue BDR -- Probably not even real Also, for a bonus Jackpot amount: You used a banned word Jackpot location: You are now banned I must say with Maine and NH in the game more than anyone, it seems logical to include stations like Bangor, for instance. Also I got 7/9 right so I deserve snacks. You win, everyone else is now playing for second. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 ALB - 5"BTV - 2"PWM - 22" GYX - 20"BOS - 16" BOX - 12"ORH - 11"BDL- 8"BDR - 5" Jackpot: Eastport, ME - 28" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 How does it work? Below is the list of stations that will participate in the contest. ALB 2 BTV 3 PWM 15 GYX 13 BOS 9 BOX 7 ORH 6.5 BDL 4.5 BDR 3.5 Also, for a bonus Jackpot amount 29 Jackpot location(Must be a city, state combo or the scoring program will reject it and you will be disqualified from the bonus). Eastport, ME Zeus, I considered changing the stations, but decided to keep it the same so that at the end of the winter, if I decide to total up season-long stats, it's a level field for all events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 ALB - 3" BTV - 3" PWM - 18" GYX - 17" BOS - 11.5" BOX - 9.5" ORH - 9" BDL- 6.5" BDR - 5.5" Jackpot: Eastport, ME - 32" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 ALB - 4.0"BTV - 2.2"PWM - 18.5" GYX - 18.0"BOS - 12.5" BOX - 11.0"ORH - 10.5"BDL- 7.8"BDR - 6.1" Jackpot: Eastport, ME: 27.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 ALB: 3.2"BTV: 1.5"PWM: 17.7" GYX: 16.6"BOS: 10.4" BOX: 9.1"ORH: 7.2"BDL: 6.6"BDR: 6.9" Jackpot location: Ellsworth, Maine Jackpot Total: 31.6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 ALB : 3.3" BTV : 2.6"PWM: 14.4" GYX: 15.2"BOS: 13.4" BOX: 13.1"ORH: 10.4"BDL: 4.8"BDR: 5.3" Jackpot amount: York, Maine 23.2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 ALB 5BTV 3PWM 16 GYX 13BOS 14 BOX 12ORH 12BDL 10BDR 7 jackpot eastport maine 25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 ALB: 4.5"BTV: 3"PWM: 11" GYX: 10"BOS: 9.5" BOX: 8"ORH: 9"BDL: 7.5"BDR: 4.5" Jackpot location: Eastport, Maine Jackpot Total: 27.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowciopath Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 ALB: 3 BTV: 3 PWM: 10 GYX: 9 BOS: 9 BOX: 9 ORH: 8 BDL: 7 BDR: 5 Jackpot location: Lubec, Maine Jackpot total: 21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 ALB __ 3.0 BTV __ 4.0 PWM __ 13.0 GYX __11.0 BOS __9 BOX __8 ORH __ 7 BDL __ 7 BDR __4 max will be 17 PSM Just got out of work ! 630-1200 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 ALB: 5"BTV: 3.5"PWM: 18" GYX: 14"BOS: 10" BOX: 9"ORH: 8"BDL: 7"BDR: 4.5" Jackpot location/amount: Eastport, ME - 29" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 Results? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 17, 2015 Author Share Posted February 17, 2015 Results? Before the night is out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 17, 2015 Author Share Posted February 17, 2015 Congratulations to ma blizzard for taking the win in this contest! Overall, across the board, scores were significantly higher(that is, worse) than the last one, which is to be expected considering the massive bust at a couple of stations. Unsurprisingly, no one really called that(Every single player had double digits at PWM and so took at least a 20 point hit there). The jackpot was in Robbinston, ME, 13 miles away from the majority of your choices(Eastport, ME), but BristolRIWx was just 8 miles away with his choice of Pembrooke, ME and therefore got the 5 point deduction there. ruNNAWayIcEberG got the jackpot amount of 28 right on the nose and as a result got a 5 point deduction as well. Here are the final numbers from the stations, the final results are attached below. ALB 5.9 BTV 2.2 PWM 2.3 GYX 2.3 BOS 16.2 BOX 14.1 ORH 10.1 BDL 5.3 BDR 1.3 Thanks to all who played! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 thanks for doing this, I enjoy it. Next winter maybe keep a running tally and crown a seasonal weenie champ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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