DAFF Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I must admit the whole 0Z GFS run was action packed let alone this system. Anyone have any thoughts of when the storm will be most intense? I'm thinking when the temps drop below 19°F and the winds pick up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Up to 1.6" here. LSR is probably well under 10:1 at this point. Very dense/wet snow accumulation so far. All the trees are caked in wet snow. Winds have been near calm for awhile now. LSRs will get above 10:1, and more intense precip will make for much better rates going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boogieman Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Looks like 40MPH gusts for my neck of the woods. I wonder if DTX will issue any blizzard warnings .... Just my 2₵ worth... if it was my call, I'd pull the trigger on a BW and take whatever that brings, knowing that I erred on the side of humanity. As was said, it's not a "normal" Sunday and I'd make my best efforts to keep as many people out of this mess as I could. It would be far too easy for people to get stuck in a mess like this and perish a long, cold and miserable death from hypothermia or CO poisoning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I must admit the whole 0Z GFS run was action packed let alone this system. Anyone have any thoughts of when the storm will be most intense? I'm thinking when the temps drop below 19°F and the winds pick up... Here? Probably late Sunday evening / early Monday morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robPAwx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Webcams anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 6z RAP looks like it's just north of Indy at 0z tomorrow night down to 1000mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 6z RAP looks like it's just north of Indy at 0z tomorrow night down to 1000mb. Hour before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Man the trees are really caked with thick snow right now with this very wet snow falling in near calm conditions. Sure wish it was daytime so I could get some good pics of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Hour before Untitled.png 35 kt sustained winds over the lake. Gotta think that's gonna produce gusts up to 45 kt. Will be good times on LSD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Man the trees are really caked with thick snow right now with this very wet snow falling in near calm conditions. Sure wish it was daytime so I could get some good pics of it. Oh yeah here too last time I was out about a half hour ago. Looks awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Hour before Untitled.png Nice... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 SN for the first time of the event. Really coming down nicely with beefy dendrites floating down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 35 kt sustained winds over the lake. Gotta think that's gonna produce gusts up to 45 kt. Will be good times on LSD. And 925 mb winds of 50 kts in N IL at 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 And 925 mb winds of 50 kts in N IL at 00z.If that occurs and we tap into that, not just gonna be GHD lite lol.Edit: Sounding for that hour says we do tap into that 925 mb jet. Mixed layer gets up to 900 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 And 925 mb winds of 50 kts in N IL at 00z. Untitled.png About to the point where I'd be kinda shocked if we don't get a blizzard warning. I'd guess Kane county and eastward for the lakeside counties Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 If that occurs and we tap into that, not just gonna be GHD lite lol. lol true Looks much stronger than NAM valid same time, and even a bit stronger than GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BadgerStateWX Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 nearing 2" Not going to be anything like GHD Blizz here but it sure kinda has that feel to it and we sure reeled this one in just like it. Not going to be a fun ride in to work tomorrow. Enjoy all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 KDTW 010738Z 00000KT 1SM -SN OVC011 M01/M03 A3019 RMK AO2 SNB09 P0001 RVRNO $ Been snowing down at Metro for almost 40 mins now, still waiting here but it should be within the next 20 mins for a start here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 About to the point where I'd be kinda shocked if we don't get a blizzard warning. I'd guess Kane county and eastward for the lakeside counties I'd consider doing from Porter to LaSalle and north. Tons of wide open spaces in the west and northwest CWA and winds look pretty hellacious out there too. Then for Lake and Porter, you'd have the frictionless winds right onto the shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Going back and looking at GHD 2011, it looks like 925 mb winds in N IL were around 50-60 kts, but limited amount of data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I'd consider doing from Porter to LaSalle and north. Tons of wide open spaces in the west and northwest CWA and winds look pretty hellacious out there too. Then for Lake and Porter, you'd have the frictionless winds right onto the shore. Do you think the "blowability" is any concern? I mean, the longer temps stay around freezing, the less snow there would be to blow around. Though I guess this may be less of a concern in the northern cwa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Going back and looking at GHD 2011, it looks like 925 mb winds in N IL were around 50-60 kts, but limited amount of data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Do you think the "blowability" is any concern? I mean, the longer temps stay around freezing, the less snow there would be to blow around. Though I guess this may be less of a concern in the northern cwa. If things stayed like they are now, but we should get into improving ratios in the deformation. Also, wonder if the layer put down hardens a bit even and serves as a surface for the fluffier snow to blow along. Or maybe the wet snow now just dries out and everything gets unleashed this afternoon and evening lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 6z NAM will continue to follow other guidance and step north and stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 ghd sounding.jpg Cool...did you save that or do they have archived soundings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 As impressive as the latest snowfall rates are here, this is not even close to what we saw during GHD '11. This is a much different setup compared to that one of course, so that's not a surprise. Winds will eventually get pretty gusty, on the order of 35-45mph gusts, but during GHD '11 we had frequent gusts between 50-60mph. Snowfall intensity is pretty impressive, but GHD '11 was way more intense in that regard. Even though the end result could be very significant snowfall accumulation wise, the relative ferocity of this storm is not even close to GHD '11. This is more of an long-duraton classic snowstorm to me, with some strong winds at the end of it for effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 2.2" here thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 The Weather Channel is calling for 13-21" of snow here 5-8" on Sunday and 8-12" Sunday Night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Bullseye over Metro Detroit on NAM is nuts, 18-22" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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