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NOT DC/NOVA discussion


JMU2004
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I'm very surprised that there hasn't been more discussion about the potential for ice and power outages in this thread. .. Personally I still believe we are going to have a few long hours of just sleet in my part of Glen Allen Va but this could easily turn into a ice storm for many.. Its also going to be a heavy & wet/windy snow in some places that could cause power outages. .. I definitely would be careful on what u stock up on at the grocery store if your in area that can easily lose power and u have no backup....

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I'm eyeballing about 16 inches in Richmond, thanks Yoda. Interesting because NAM has been, by far, the warmest model for the area. In fact the 0z really pushed back accumulations in the city. Richmond will ride the line on this one, I would expect a long period of heavy sleet almost for sure. That's just based on experience 

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA

1027 AM EST THU JAN 21 2016

...THREAT CONTINUES FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM FRIDAY THROUGH

SUNDAY MORNING...

VAZ048-061-062-064-509>511-212330-

/O.UPG.KAKQ.WS.A.0001.160122T1200Z-160124T1200Z/

/O.NEW.KAKQ.WS.W.0001.160122T1200Z-160124T1500Z/

FLUVANNA-CUMBERLAND-GOOCHLAND-CAROLINE-WESTERN LOUISA-

EASTERN LOUISA-WESTERN HANOVER-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GOOCHLAND...LOUISA...MINERAL...ASHLAND

1027 AM EST THU JAN 21 2016

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 10 AM EST

SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS ISSUED A WINTER

STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM

FRIDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN

EFFECT.

* AREAS AFFECTED: PIEDMONT OF CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

* HAZARDS: HEAVY SNOW...GUSTY WINDS.

* ACCUMULATIONS: 12 TO 20 INCHES OF SNOW...WITH LOCALLY 2 FEET

POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF LOUISA AND FLUVANNA

COUNTIES.

* TEMPERATURES: FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

* WINDS: NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH FRIDAY...BECOMING NORTH

AND INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTY FRIDAY NIGHT AND

SATURDAY.

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Wakefield is always so conservative. Always the last WFO in the region to make a call. We're less than 24 hours away, make a call.

Yeah I mean it's kind of nitpicking but they could have at least upgraded the next row of counties east, including Richmond, from what they did. Every single model is showing easily warning level impacts there.

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Yeah I mean it's kind of nitpicking but they could have at least upgraded the next row of counties east, including Richmond, from what they did. Every single model is showing easily warning level impacts there.

Its ridiculous. State of Emergency, every model screaming huge snowstorm.... and we are still under a WATCH? 

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Watching from afar today but I can't help myself but to respond. Honestly, the call has already been made...i'm fairly certain of that. It's just a question of coordinating and communicating internally. There's a lot of internal politics that so many people aren't aware of that the weather office faces every single day. And of course there are media briefings, etc. Further, looking at the Soundings and bufr data, this is nowhere near as slam dunk as it appears. RIC will have mixing and transition issues after the initial (strong) WAA bump. Always do. We've had far better setups that have blown up with SEly flow aloft. Anyway, just wanted to weigh in real quickly. Honestly, all this griping is why I don't even bother to post much anymore. Just my 2 cents. Flame away.

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I wouldn't so much say its griping, but some questions about why AKQ does seem to be slower than other surrounding offices on updating forecast and issuing products. Trust me, I get the need for coordination and preparation. Just seems like AKQ can sometimes be hesitant to move. And, given that I grew up here, I do fully understand why they probably take a pessimistic view on things. I fully anticipate mixing in this storm, that happens every big event in the area.

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I wouldn't so much say its griping, but some questions about why AKQ does seem to be slower than other surrounding offices on updating forecast and issuing products. Trust me, I get the need for coordination and preparation. Just seems like AKQ can sometimes be hesitant to move. And, given that I grew up here, I do fully understand why they probably take a pessimistic view on things. I fully anticipate mixing in this storm, that happens every big event in the area.

 

Well, realize that ours is an incredibly complex CWA; Huge, varied marine, coastal plain, piedmont...throw in 3 metro areas and a few high visibility neighbors and collaboration is a herculean task almost daily. Not complaining, it's part of the job...but it goes to why everything takes so long. By the book, we need to have our stuff in by around 4pm to meet media crunch, 3:30 if possible. I think they'll meet that. The lowest hanging fruit for WSW (easiest to verify) was the CHO area. That went first. We'll see what happens next, but I'm sure everyone will be more than satisfied (my Vince Gambini voice from My Cousin Vinny).

 

In any case, this mixed phase stuff is climo for us. We struggle with this more than our neighbors due to our location. If we bust high (*and I suspect quite a few will) east of town, those urging us to rush will be the first ones to complain that we busted. It's a double edged sword. I think, frankly we do have a tendency to rely TOO much on the science; To get the forecast precisely correct rather than go for "awareness". Call me old fashioned, but I honestly love our approach. Could we do it faster some times? Perhaps. I wouldn't change our M.O. for anyone, however.

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That was a really great response. Thanks for laying that all out there, and it does make total sense. Very complicated region for sure, heck even the small mileage between Petersburg and Short Pump can mean huge differences in observable weather.

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Well, realize that ours is an incredibly complex CWA; Huge, varied marine, coastal plain, piedmont...throw in 3 metro areas and a few high visibility neighbors and collaboration is a herculean task almost daily. Not complaining, it's part of the job...but it goes to why everything takes so long. By the book, we need to have our stuff in by around 4pm to meet media crunch, 3:30 if possible. I think they'll meet that. The lowest hanging fruit for WSW (easiest to verify) was the CHO area. That went first. We'll see what happens next, but I'm sure everyone will be more than satisfied (my Vince Gambini voice from My Cousin Vinny).

 

In any case, this mixed phase stuff is climo for us. We struggle with this more than our neighbors due to our location. If we bust high (*and I suspect quite a few will) east of town, those urging us to rush will be the first ones to complain that we busted. It's a double edged sword. I think, frankly we do have a tendency to rely TOO much on the science; To get the forecast precisely correct rather than go for "awareness". Call me old fashioned, but I honestly love our approach. Could we do it faster some times? Perhaps. I wouldn't change our M.O. for anyone, however.

 

I apologize if my post was harsh, was just wondering why AKQ was usually behind the other WFOs in the region. Your response makes perfect sense. You guys definitely have a tough job, every major storm your stuck working out the details of the changeover area.

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 a fewe points   

  the warmest model  sounding is the  12Z NAM which   has   RIC  with brief  bubble of    +1.0c  over  RIC at  42 hrs    by   48  hs  12z  sat the entire column is below zero C and all the  precip is snow  into  saturday am/ midday

Never mind  all every model is colder   12z  Thursday cycle and has  increased  snow  amounts and    shive the dry slot  east  as well as the warm layer

 perhaps  of the   starting  point    wasnt    the  initial view   from Monday that     " all of central   VS  all day  will see all  rain on friday ?

Ok i can see why one might think that  for RIC but calling  for rain all day friday  for   Farmville  and    Lake Anna region ? 





 

Watching from afar today but I can't help myself but to respond. Honestly, the call has already been made...i'm fairly certain of that. It's just a question of coordinating and communicating internally. There's a lot of internal politics that so many people aren't aware of that the weather office faces every single day. And of course there are media briefings, etc. Further, looking at the Soundings and bufr data, this is nowhere near as slam dunk as it appears. RIC will have mixing and transition issues after the initial (strong) WAA bump. Always do. We've had far better setups that have blown up with SEly flow aloft. Anyway, just wanted to weigh in real quickly. Honestly, all this griping is why I don't even bother to post much anymore. Just my 2 cents. Flame away.

 

post-9415-0-63431700-1453408471_thumb.jp

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 a fewe points   

  the warmest model  sounding is the  12Z NAM which   has   RIC  with brief  bubble of    +1.0c  over  RIC at  42 hrs    by   48  hs  12z  sat the entire column is below zero C and all the  precip is snow  into  saturday am/ midday

Never mind  all every model is colder   12z  Thursday cycle and has  increased  snow  amounts and    shive the dry slot  east  as well as the warm layer

 perhaps  of the   starting  point    wasnt    the  initial view   from Monday that     " all of central   VS  all day  will see all  rain on friday ?

Ok i can see why one might think that  for RIC but calling  for rain all day friday  for   Farmville  and    Lake Anna region ? 

 

 

Frankly, the way you've thrown a few of my co-workers under the bus this week, I'm not even interested in discussing this with you. Dave, you're a smart guy and you're very aware of our setup. I'm not going to go round and round with he said, he said stuff, because it won't get anyone anywhere. The inflammatory rhetoric I've heard this week from our "public" callers has been some of the most profane, unprofessional stuff I've ever heard. I'm not interested in starting or participating in a battle with you. I'm just not going there.

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Looks like we will ride the line as always in Richmond but trends are good.

 

Question for folks here. All the forecasts in this area are for very little additional snow Saturday, which seems to go against what models are showing. How we feeling about the ULL and what comes behind the snow up front on Friday?

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I thought the AKQ AFD this morning was really well done.  Not sure how much was model interpretation and how much was is climo for the region given the synoptic setup.  

 

I did notice there was restraint in making a specific forecast at the time for the Richmond metro, given the inevitable uncertainty either way.  So many reasons this could bust high or low on snowfall totals and lots of second guessing either way.

 

Hope the storm turns out well and my tenant occupied former residence in Powhatan is no worse for wear when it's all done.  Lots of pine trees to ice up and fall over.

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