NCSNOW Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I want to root for the phase and jackpot. But that ukie run scares me , cause if it phases to soon it could climb the ladder fast. That's been the trend this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Does the UK has a SLP off HAT or is that an old run? http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&ech=72&carte=1021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Does the UK has a SLP off HAT or is that an old run? http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&ech=72&carte=1021 That is tonight's run. Nice shift by it... Looks like it has a 1010 mb LP south of Louisiana on the prior frame (hr 96). Of course, it's hard to say for sure what happens in the intervening 24 hours, but it would seem to be interesting upon first look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 That is tonight's run. Nice shift by it... Not sure I want that day 5, more like 36 hours out, LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Someone screen capture this and post it, nice snow map. Love the snow hole. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navm.html?model=gfs®ion=seus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2015020100&fh=138&xpos=0&ypos=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Not sure I want that day 5, more like 36 hours out, LOL. We can't be picky. Got to take 'em when we can. That french crap is harder to read then the black n white canadian. It's a great site, though. It gets all of the maps faster than anywhere else I've seen (including the GGEM, UKMET, and NAVGEM). AmericanWx's GGEM is as fast, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 The GFS was so cold b/c it scooted that northern system out so fast that it allowed high pressure to build in the Northeast in advance of our storm.... If we can get that to happen along with a phase of our northern energy with the southern wave we would seriously be in business. IMO, It looks like the Ukmet is showing a phase, but it doesn't push the northern system out ahead of it so there won't be any CAD, probably rain for everyone east of the Apps in that scenario unless NC can switch to snow on the backside before it moves out. That is my guess based off the pathetic maps we have to go by anyways... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Does the UK has a SLP off HAT or is that an old run? http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&ech=72&carte=1021 The 12z had slp off hat just a tad warm, can't load that link on my phone though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 KJZI is a better representation for charleston than CHS, just FYI guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 That was an improved run of the GFS in every way. Northern stream was faster with getting high pressure in quicker (as burrel noted earlier today)...baja low was slower...backside wave held. Now let's get more modeling on board with that look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 The GFS is nothing if not consistent- still skeptical but who knows....stranger things have happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 The 12z had slp off hat just a tad warm, can't load that link on my phone though Looking over the 12z on WB, it's not really a Gulf Low in a way, though. It's like a Miller B transfer mess or something on the 12z run. There's some secondary low over SE TN or something with another weak low in the Gulf. Strange look, but I don't have a lot of maps to look at. This run is also a lot stronger. (WB has the UKMET now with 6-hour panels, but it takes hours to come out.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 126 Hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 132 Hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 KLRO is Mount Pleasant. They get about 7" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I'm willing to bet the CMC is going to be a phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Yea james, ukie did same dance at 12z. It miller b's but way futher south. T his storm has huge potential to phase at the right time and paste some folks or blow up in our faces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 00z NAVGEM ticked north and delivers the goods. Really hammers eastern NC/SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Damn, the 00z NAVGEM is a plastering. Destroys E NC/SC, but is also a big storm all the way back to the mountains. Check, please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Damn, the 00z NAVGEM is a plastering. Destroys E NC/SC, but is also a big storm all the way back to the mountains. Check, please? This is probably how it will play out b/c you know PGV has to get the jackpot.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 CMC was about as close to the perfect track as you can get but it's too warm...brings the southern energy out too fast...if it didn't phase it was about as close to one as you could get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 This is probably how it will play out b/c you know PGV has to get the jackpot.... Every damn time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Actually CMC might be a changeover to snow for a few hours for CLT east...it was really close to an awesome solution. Also had snow for GA/SC as well but it was light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Hard to tell if cmc was a phase w/out the 5h maps but it had to be close. The main problem was the high didn't have time to get into position and looks warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Yeah, the Canadian is just a touch too fast. Even without the phase, it would have been a decent 3-6" type hit for many if it had been a little colder. Not a bad look. Probably rain-to-snow for some as it is, though we know how that usually works out. Looks like Boston gets a decent hit from it. I'm sure no one is surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Hard to tell if cmc was a phase w/out the 5h maps but it had to be close. The main problem was the high didn't have time to get into position and looks warm. The cold can't catch the Baja low, it's a delicate balance. Need the baja low to get caught before hitting the Atlantic, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Of course here in GA I prefer the GFS solution over the Canadian, but still want to see the Euro come on board for any of us to get too worked up over this system... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Here's a model recap of where we stand now: GGEM/UKMet look similar with no CAD and a wound up storm... maybe rain to snow for some. NAVGEM/GFS/JMA build in CAD and have wintery weather extending deep into southern GA/SC. EURO has no storm at all... I would say any of those 3 scenario's have about an equal chance right now. (Edit: Maybe less chance for the Euro solution after the information posted today that showed it correcting to the Northwest on the last couple of storms.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I'll take my chances with this. (00z UKMET, hr 120) BTW, Happy Fab Feb to all. May it be a memorable one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Of course here in GA I prefer the GFS solution over the Canadian, but still want to see the Euro come on board for any of us to get too worked up over this system... Bugs me to no end that the EURO is no where near the GFS. I will say though that the GFS has not wavered except for the 18z. So there is that.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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