Snowstorms Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The only model giving me hope is the UKMET. Basically, atm 1 vs 3 (0z Euro still not out). Still alot of model mayhem, but we should hopefully get a clearer picture by 12z and 0z runs tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 lol @ ukmet P1_GZ_D5_PN_072_0000.gif It's loving those I-80 toll roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The totals map isn't out yet but adding up the frames, looks like a large area of 20+ mm Yes its quite amped. The northern stream dug a bit more than the other runs and this allowed the storm to track further north. Atm its the outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Crazy Uncle totals through 72 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 This is a bit OT, but based strictly on the verficiation charts, the ECMWF/UKIE lead the way in the short-range (<=3 days). http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Crazy Uncle totals through 72 hours PA_000-072_0000.gif Imagine those totals at 15:1 where the colder air sets in quicker.... Model mayhem continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Wow the Ukie is juicy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2015 Author Share Posted January 30, 2015 Crazy Uncle totals through 72 hours PA_000-072_0000.gif Wow. Very impressive. But some ensemble members from both the GFS and Euro have been showing these amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 00z Canadian looking very clipperish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Wow. Very impressive. But some ensemble members from both the GFS and Euro have been showing these amountsPretty much an ideal track for eastern IA, northern IL and northwest IN on that run. And with the stout high dropping southeast as the low deepens, wind is definitely gonna be an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Wow. Very impressive. But some ensemble members from both the GFS and Euro have been showing these amounts Check out the gfs ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 0z GFS ensemble mean has a low track along the OH river with 0.5"+ QPF to the IL/WI boarder and also extreme southern MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 To be honest I wouldn't rule the ukie out. With the moisture coming out from the SW and a good baro zone setting up, if the phase happens just a couple of hours earlier that is quite possible. But it does bring precip type issue over it's heaviest QPF areas. Rest assured not for ORD. What do I think the chances are? About 1 in 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2015 Author Share Posted January 30, 2015 Check out the gfs ensembles. Don't see them out yet on e-wall, where are you looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Don't see them out yet on e-wall, where are you looking? They're out on wxbell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Not sure if IND will pull the trigger on watches with the overnight package but I'd have to think it would be coming tomorrow afternoon at the latest if models hold up. I'll start feeling better after the 12z runs but at this point am thinking there's a shot at double digits here. If model qpf of .75-1" verifies, then even relatively subdued event average ratios of 12:1 would put us near or over 10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Don't see them out yet on e-wall, where are you looking? stormvista.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 GEFS mean similar to the 0z Ukie. SE Michigan thru SONT see 6-8" including Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Looking at AMwx model suite were all 21 members of the GEFS are available I would say about 14 are similar to the UKIE in some fashion, one even clocks MSP :lmao: Edit: some have the Low along the 540 line, some south and some north, but there is not doubt that they are trying to form some kind of surface low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Crazy Uncle totals through 72 hours PA_000-072_0000.gif Just for a laugh kc was in the mid 70s yesterday and the ukie would crush them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 More eye candy....take it for what it is. I think this is as far as Earls goes for this model. At least for the 0Z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Just 42 hours out but it appears that another bump north is forthcoming from the 0z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 0z ECMWF is already west and digging the northern wave more by 30hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2015 Author Share Posted January 30, 2015 Both beat me to it. It looks like it will be coming north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 This is going to be an amped up run. Sfc low forms over NE Kansas by hour 54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STL Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 This is going to be an amped up run. Sfc low forms over NE Kansas by hour 54 That's what I like to hear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Similar 500mb setup by 54hrs as was seen with that amped GFS run from Tuesday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 By hour 66 sfc low passing just south of St. Louis, moving essentially due east. Not sure if it'll turn more NE or not. Decent precip as far north as southern WI and southern MI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 This is going to be an amped up run. Sfc low forms over NE Kansas by hour 54 Nice digging by the northern wave and early phasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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