Stovepipe Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I like very much where we are at modeling wise as we move into the 5 day window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The 18z GFS looked to have about the same exact setup as this one but around hour 240 or so. We may be setting up for multiple big overrunning events in the next few weeks. This run looked better to me than 12z. The biggest runs of the year so far will be tonight. My likely guess as to what happens is front end snow to sleet/zr to rain back to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The 18z GFS looked to have about the same exact setup as this one but around hour 240 or so. We may be setting up for multiple big overrunning events in the next few weeks. This run looked better to me than 12z. The biggest runs of the year so far will be tonight. My likely guess as to what happens is front end snow to sleet/zr to rain back to snow. Euro at 12z had that setup again at 240 too fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 0z Euro ensemble mean snow is even beefier than 12z for the Tuesday storm. The low cluster farther south as well. The control run is similar to the op but even farther south. Euro and UKMet are just ridiculous. If this holds at 12z it's going to get wild around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 MRX says model consistency is good for this storm....to provide rain for us all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 06z has a bit more snow than 00z had, still has everyone going over to rain for part of the event. But north of 40 gets 3-6 inches with 1-3 south of 40. That shifted about 100 miles south from 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 JKL's take on the system. ON MONDAY A LARGESCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE ROCKIES AS AWAVE DROPS SOUTH FROM CANADA. THIS WILL LEAD TO SURFACE LOWDEVELOPMENT OVER NM OR TX ON MONDAY...WITH THE LOW THENTRANSLATING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATE. BOTH THE ECMWFAND GFS TAKE THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW JUST EAST OF THEAPPALACHIANS IN THEIR LATEST RUNS...WITH A TRACK FAVORABLE FORSIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IN OUR AREA. WHILE THERE IS PLENTY OFTIME FOR FORECAST CHANGES TO OCCUR...THIS SYSTEM DOES BEARPOTENTIAL TO END THE SNOWFALL DROUGHT OF THIS WINTER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 MRX says model consistency is good for this storm....to provide rain for us all. Is Matt Hinkin working at MRX now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 0z Euro ensemble snow breakdown through hour 240, out of 51 members, big dog = 6 inches or more: Memphis Some snow - All 2+ inches - 32 Big Dogs - 12 Deterministic - 16 inches Mean - 4 inches Jackson Some snow - All 2+ inches - 38 Big Dogs - 15 Deterministic - 16 inches Mean - 4 inches Nashville Some snow - All 2+ inches - 44 Big Dogs - 21 Deterministic - 19 inches Mean - 5 inches Crossville Some snow - All 2+ inches - 49 Big Dogs - 20 Deterministic - 13 inches Mean - 6 inches Knoxville Some snow - All 2+ inches - 35 Big Dogs - 12 Deterministic - 10 inches Mean - 4 inches Chattanooga Some snow - All 2+ inches - 37 Big Dogs - 8 Deterministic - 9 inches Mean - 3.8 Bristol Some snow - All 2+ inches - 49 Big Dogs - 21 Deterministic - 8.8 inches Mean - 6 inches Asheville Some snow - All 2+ inches - 44 Big Dogs - 18 Deterministic - 6.2 Mean - 4.8 Huntsville Some snow - 49 2+ inches - 24 Big Dogs - 4 Deterministic - 8.8 Mean - 2.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 Or... and I know, I'm not technically in your area... Atlanta! :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Or... and I know, I'm not technically in your area... Atlanta! :-) Sure! Atlanta Some Snow - 41 2+ inches - 9 Big Dogs - 1 Deterministic - 1.1 inch Mean - 1.2 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 Thank you sir! much appreciated! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I know I'm not in your area either. Can you give the numbers for Fayetteville, AR and Joplin? Thanks!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I know I'm not in your area either. Can you give the numbers for Fayetteville, AR and Joplin? Thanks!!!! Fayetteville Some Snow - All 2+ inches - 48 Big Dogs - 17 Deterministic - 10 inches Mean - 5 inches Regarding the UKMET, that last run was ALL snow for the TN valley, no mix or rain to contend with. That was it's 3rd run in a row showing significant snowfall for our area. Someone in the SE forum posted some verification charts that showed that model has been more accurate than the GFS. Let's see if it can go for 4 in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Thanks for the quick reply!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 Bastardi just said : "I must point out the UKMET which has been doing a good job on recent events, keeps the wave train south next week hanging onto cold air over the glacier forming in the northeast." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Fayetteville Some Snow - All 2+ inches - 48 Big Dogs - 17 Deterministic - 10 inches Mean - 5 inches Regarding the UKMET, that last run was ALL snow for the TN valley, no mix or rain to contend with. That was it's 3rd run in a row showing significant snowfall for our area. Someone in the SE forum posted some verification charts that showed that model has been more accurate than the GFS. Let's see if it can go for 4 in a row. thanks a lot for all the info you provide the forum! The Ukie is intriguing. It's just so hard to buy into anything yet given how the models have generally trended from here on out this year. All the models have come south but I can just feel a northward trend coming soon. It almost always happens lol. I sure hope I'm wrong. FWIW the JMA and NAVGEM are well north of all other guidance. It was pointed out that the JMA only updates out to 144hr at 12Z so that run is almost 24hr's old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Significant change on the 12z GFS... much farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 In meetings, do we really have our first real threat about to materialize?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Looks like the GFS went S again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Significant change on the 12z GFS... much farther south. Very encouraged now... Seeing the GFS come further south is starting to finally get me a little excited. Though I still am still tempering enthusiasm... I'm still wary of our last storm moving way northward to give Chicago and Detroit all of our snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 In meetings, do we really have our first real threat about to materialize?? Lawdy mercy, we done got a winter storm on our hands with this 12z GFS. Low tracking through south central GA into central SC. Much of TN has 4-5 inches (less in NW TN) and it's still coming down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 12z GFS snow totals Wednesday morning: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 gfs looked a lot more like the 00Z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Far from a consensus, but the GFS is in our camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 when looking at this possible storm, you have a massive, strong, cold HP push in ahead of this threat, and one coming in behind. This seems like it would have to thread the needle to end up giving rain this time... which is completely the opposite of what we normally deal with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 when looking at this possible storm, you have a massive, strong, cold HP push in ahead of this threat, and one coming in behind. This seems like it would have to thread the needle to end up giving rain this time... which is completely the opposite of what we normally deal with. Yeah I agree its looking harder and harder to get rain from this. It also looks like a snow that doesn't melt the next day which is also typical of our snows. That part makes me happy. I hate that most snows we get are gone by end of the next day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I don't quite understand what MRX considers "model consistency" but it'll take some creative writing in their next AFD to ignore the trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 If the low tracks where the 12Z GFS has it, that is all snow for Chatt and Knox....of course in the wheel house this far out is not good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I don't quite understand what MRX considers "model consistency" but it'll take some creative writing in their next AFD to ignore the trends. Yeah I can't wait to see that. A couple days back they felt it ok to say "Significant" snow possible, then over the last couple days became extremely conservative in wording. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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