1234snow Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Some on our board (sw VA) may work themselves into a front end thump of some kind. That part will be interesting to follow for them. I hate relying on anything on the backside of a storm system. They almost never work out. I never do well with these types of systems. Always marginal and turns out mostly rain. I'll take anything though at this point. Now points of higher elevation in SWVA may do well especially further east toward Roanoke. We definitely need to root for something weaker and flatter with this. Similar to what the UKMet is showing, not the Euro and GFS. I agree,we don't want to see this wrap up I agree with y'all. It is going to be hard to keep the track suppressed with the trough digging so far into the desert southwest states. I would like to see a more zonal look instead of a amplified look. I would also like to see the trough axis further east. So far it has been trending west on the GFS,Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 And the 12z Cycle of the Euro is here to tease again.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 And the 12z Cycle of the Euro is here to tease again.... Let the south trend commence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Looks like 9 to 10 inches from 40 north in west TN, 6 to 9 on the plateau, and 3 to 5 elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Goes to rain for us...quick couple of inches then to ice then to heavy rain....bleh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Will be interesting to see the spread on the ensembles later. It appears things may be settling back south. Hope we can get rid of some of the more wound up northwest solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Euro got cold didn't it? -22,7 C on my text Edit:that would be -9F..LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 That is on top of serious snow cover....we will see about that....It will still be nasty cold though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 BNA.pngMEM.pngTRI.pngTYS.png Thanks for sharing the text. That is the one and only thing I miss about AccuPro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Crazy amount of moisture for Knoxville...comes out to 4" of snow...0.5" of ZR/IP then bring on the 1.4" of rain followed by a finish of snow....that is one helluva a storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Crazy amount of moisture for Knoxville...comes out to 4" of snow...0.5" of ZR/IP then bring on the 1.4" of rain followed by a finish of snow....that is one helluva a storm! No doubt, the text data looks CRAZY. with the cold air coming behind it, would make for a crusty and yucky mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 if I'm looking at the low tracks correctly on the ensembles it looks like about half cut and half ride south of us. The mean snow certainly looks good with about a 3 to 6 inch gradient south to north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 if I'm looking at the low tracks correctly on the ensembles it looks like about half cut and half ride south of us. The mean snow certainly looks good with about a 3 to 6 inch gradient south to north. Looks like a cluster of lows, many of them south of us day 6.5 (Euro EPS), The low locations seems to favor northern GA at day 6.5. The mean is "beefy" for the state of TN with the 2 inch line down in northern MS,AL, and GA and the control is also on board. I hope this run isn't a blip, but with the GGEM, the UKMET, and the EURO all giving us chances for frozen it's easily the best under 7 day look we have seen this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 meant to add the discussion PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKSNWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD300 PM EST WED FEBRUARY 11 20156-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 17 - 21 2015TODAY'S ENSEMBLE MEAN AND DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ONTHE 500-HPA MEAN CIRCULATION PATTERN FORECAST OVER MOST OF THE NORTH AMERICADOMAIN FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. A DEEP TROUGH IS EXPECTED OVER THE BERING SEA. A SPLIT FLOW IS FORECAST OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS, WITH AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER ALASKA AND A TROUGH DIRECTLY SOUTH OF IT OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH IS FORECAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THE MANUAL BLEND CHART INDICATES ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER ALASKA AND THE WESTERN CONUS, WHTH BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS INDICATE MODERATE SPREAD ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN.THERE ARE ENHANCED ODDS FOR BELOW-NORMAL MEAN TEMPERATURES OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS, DUE TO THE EXPECTED PROXIMITY OF THE 500-HPA TROUGH, BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS, AND NORTHERLY ANOMALOUS FLOW. ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE ANTICIPATED OVER ALASKA AND WESTERN NORTH AMERICA FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR CALIFORNIA, THE GREAT BASIN AND ALASKA.BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS AND THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE. THIS IS DUE MOSTLY TO THE FORECAST PRESENCE OF A 500-HPA RIDGE. TROUGHING OVER THE BERING SEA AND/OR SOUTHERLY ANOMALOUS FLOW ENHANCES CHANCES OF ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR WESTERN AND NORTHERN ALASKA. BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS, THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND UPPER GREAT LAKES, WHILE INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST, SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES, THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS, THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, AND MOST OF THE EASTERN CONUS, CONSISTENT WITH NAEFS AND GEFS REFORECAST GUIDANCE. TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 For what it's worth, that 12z GFS came in at nearly 2 inches at TYS with a cobb of about 2.7. TRI at 2.5 with a cobb of 3.3. BNA at 1.2 cobb 1.8. MEM at 1.7 cobb 2.5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BNAwx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 For what it's worth, that 12z GFS came in at nearly 2 inches at TYS with a cobb of about 2.7. TRI at 2.5 with a cobb of 3.3. BNA at 1.2 cobb 1.8. MEM at 1.7 cobb 2.5. Sadly, I'd take the cobb total at this point. Haven't had a memorable storm here since Jan '10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I'm on my phone but the Euro Ensembles looked about the same as the op. The control looked good but the mean looked a little less. What can y'all tell about the ensembles that have the data? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I'm on my phone but the Euro Ensembles looked about the same as the op. The control looked good but the mean looked a little less. What can y'all tell about the ensembles that have the data? Synopsis, All of Kentucky and all of SW VA are 6+ on the euro mean through day 8. Control is 5-6 for all of northeast TN and all of SW VA, 6+ in the mountains. Good clustering of lows south and east, less clustering north and west. Good trends, but still a LONG way away on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 12z UKMET is in. TN is covered in mostly 2 to 4 inches, a little less in the west. Northern half of GA is covered in 3 to 5. NC and SC do pretty good as well. Definitely in a different camp than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Whether it happens or not, I figured I would just throw out some day 8 ensemble information from the 12z Euro. BNA - 2+ is on 42/51 members and 6+ is on approx 25/51 TYS - 2+ is on 38/51 members and 6+ is around 17 members TRI - 2+ is on 40/51 members and 6+ has around 20 of 51 members.I was just eyeballing, but there is a great signal there for at least SOME wintry weather next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 12z UKMET is in. TN is covered in mostly 2 to 4 inches, a little less in the west. Northern half of GA is covered in 3 to 5. NC and SC do pretty good as well. Definitely in a different camp than the GFS. It is interesting to note, it lines up pretty well with the Euro and it's not close to done by 144. Still a LOT of precip yet to come through. Low pressure is in northern AL it appears at 144 and it shows a second light wave in Oklahoma and Arkansas. Would probably turn to rain, but looks to be a pretty good front end thump to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 UKMET precip at 144. Looks like a long duration event, with probably a mixed bag of everything including the kitchen sink if you extrapolate beyond the end of this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 UKMET precip at 144. Looks like a long duration event, with probably a mixed bag of everything including the kitchen sink if you extrapolate beyond the end of this run. Thanks for posting this; definitely interesting. I want to believe but we've been burned many times this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Getting a better look on the 18z, though not where we want it yet. Good trends today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Very icy look to the 18z GFS. Takes some time to scour the temps from NE TN. I don't like that HP is not in place. However, a powerhouse 1040 is on its heals. The models are trying to reel in a big storm. Don't know where it is going, but looks signifcant at this point for somebody west of the Apps. Could be Columbus, OH. Could be Knoxville, TN. I would be liking my chances for the northern Plateau, SE KY, SW VA(mtns), and maybe the NE corner of TN along the I-81 corridor. Nashville is looking decent right now as well. MRX seems to think the cold air bolts pretty quickly. I don't know. We are on the southern edge of guidance IMO. We really need a HP to keep this sliding eastward. From a synoptic standpoint, can anyone give me a reason this doesn't come north and trends south? I can't at the moment. But right now, I would say a long duration ice event is looking possible...though not certain by any means. Six days out...it is pretty significant on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 CPC is buying at this point. We are listed now as potential hazard for icing and heavy precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Better look this afternoon indeed.The GFS dampened out that piece to the W that was showing winter down south earlier it looks like the HP caught up with it.Still days to go but it's good that most of the models are hinting at something for a change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 18z GEFS snow mean through day 8. Nice trend, eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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