BoulderWX Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 seems like final solution from NAM (not sure how it go there, havent looked) is a middle ground of GFS/EURO - very plausible and I think we would all take a 3-6"+ event... not too bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I think people are getting a little carried away here. Especially for the coast (including NYC's boroughs). To me this looks like a 2"-5" front end, followed by a 3-6 hour period of sleet/mix/rain and then depending on where the 500mb low closes off, then the CCB will go from mix/rain to heavy snow for everyone. Euro has the 500mb low closing off just south of LI. In that scenario, the CCB would probably drop 4"-8" alone. If we can get the 500mb low to close off even further south, then we can be looking at higher amounts. But if it closes off too late, like the GFS at 12z did, then the CCB would be 2"-5" type of snow fall. A good early forecast, IMO, would be 4"-8" with rain/mix at the coast at the surface low's closest approach. While Jan. 26-27, 2011 scenario looks fairly similar, the 500mb low closed off well south of the area, allowing for the CCB to be well developed by the time it got here and thus dropping 8"-14" in that band alone. I actually told the mail lady today that my preliminary guess was 4-8", though also said we had a chance for more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day3_psnow_gt_04.gif http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1421873810296 you know I roll with you DM - but they are always a little gun-shy with probs on D3 with those outlooks - I'm not saying widespread 4"+ but I would give the area they have in 10% better odds than that.. again my very humble opinion.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I think that even if we just get a 4-6" event..everyone here will be pretty much happy. This winter has been terrible until now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 you know I roll with you DM - but they are always a little gun-shy with probs on D3 with those outlooks - I'm not saying widespread 4"+ but I would give the area they have in 10% better odds than that.. again my very humble opinion.. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/prec_f096_usbg.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Looks good to me Coastal sections would have mixing issues with 700 low west of them. It introduces sleet into the scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane11 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Are we seriously taking the NAM into consideration right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I actually told the mail lady today that my preliminary guess was 4-8", though also said we had a chance for more. That's exactly what I relayed to my peeps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfpfd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I actually told the mail lady today that my preliminary guess was 4-8", though also said we had a chance for more. I like this preliminary guess. Lets please stray away from the talks of 30 inches. I know everyone is excited because this is the first good storm chance in a while but lets keep expectations realistic. If it gets to that point within 24 hours and it's looking like a massive snowfall, have at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Upton saying that they are now going to start downplaying a snow event for the nyc metro as it looks to be mainly a mixed precip event as most models now show a surge of warm air aloft!!! They say mixed precip will change to all snow Saturday night before ending!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Coastal sections would have mixing issues with 700 low west of them. It introduces sleet into the scenario. It does not close off or deepen like the Euro . Even with the Euro`s intensity it mixes but is overcome by its dynamics and everything will cool in the end . So anything short of the Euro has to mix E of I 95 . I am just saying I like the track and I am not looking to the NAM at 72 to tie up all lose ends at that range . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=us&pkg=uv250&runtime=2015012112&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=400 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Upton saying that they are now going to start downplaying a snow event for the nyc metro as it looks to be mainly a mixed precip event as most models now show a surge of warm air aloft!!! They say mixed precip will change to all snow Saturday night before ending!!!! UPTON is just playing it conservative at this point. Can that happen? YES, but unlikely. They even have the mention of ICE all the way up into the Hudson Valley which I see very unlikely and even mention rain in the forecast for me 30 miles North of NYC.... If all stays same I am sure they will change their tune late tonight into tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Upton should know better. Freezing rain in a bombing coastal is almost never ever seen. Sleet, yes, freezing rain? Would almost guarantee that doesn't happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Upton should know better. Freezing rain in a bombing coastal is almost never ever seen. Sleet, yes, freezing rain? Would almost guarantee that doesn't happen Yeah I agree completely you're never going to see freezing rain with this it's likely going to be rain or snow with maybe a period of sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 six.gif http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=us&pkg=uv250&runtime=2015012112&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=400 Your posts/graphics definitely add some insight to the discussion, but I wonder if people wouldn't be so put off if you actually further explained why you are posting "said" map and how it pertains to the system in question. Just my 2 cents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Yeah I agree completely you're never going to see freezing rain with this it's likely going to be rain or snow with maybe a period of sleetI understand not going bullish on the storm 72 hours out but upton is being ridiculous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 UPTON is just playing it conservative at this point. Can that happen? YES, but unlikely. They even have the mention of ICE all the way up into the Hudson Valley which I see very unlikely and even mention rain in the forecast for me 30 miles North of NYC.... If all stays same I am sure they will change their tune late tonight into tomorrow. There is a time on the 12z ECMWF where the 850 mb freezing line pushes northward to somewhere between Newburgh and White Plains. White Plains has an 850 mb temperature of +0.4°C at 18z on Saturday while Newburgh has a reading of -1.3°C. So clearly, at least for a time, there is a push of warmer air aloft. Still, there are many runs to go before the details are resolve and even if there is a period of mixing, it does appear likely that this will be the region's biggest snowstorm so far this winter. Sleet is certainly a threat for a time. In and around the City, some rain is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=us&pkg=T850a&runtime=2015012112&fh=72&xpos=0&ypos=453.3333 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I understand not going bullish on the storm 72 hours out but upton is being ridiculous 72 hours out in the NWS world is an eternity, they purely are interested in letting the public know a winter storm is likely at this time, the type of precip is somewhat for their grids and zone forecasts only right now and to emphasize uncertainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 There is also no +2C spike at 850mb that Upton refers to...I'm not sure what they're getting at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I think people are getting a little carried away here. Especially for the coast (including NYC's boroughs). To me this looks like a 2"-5" front end, followed by a 3-6 hour period of sleet/mix/rain and then depending on where the 500mb low closes off, then the CCB will go from mix/rain to heavy snow for everyone. Euro has the 500mb low closing off just south of LI. In that scenario, the CCB would probably drop 4"-8" alone. If we can get the 500mb low to close off even further south, then we can be looking at higher amounts. But if it closes off too late, like the GFS at 12z did, then the CCB would be 2"-5" type of snow fall. A good early forecast, IMO, would be 4"-8" with rain/mix at the coast at the surface low's closest approach. While Jan. 26-27, 2011 scenario looks fairly similar, the 500mb low closed off well south of the area, allowing for the CCB to be well developed by the time it got here and thus dropping 8"-14" in that band alone. Best post of the afternoon. So much wish casting going on with some of the "analysis" in this forum. This event is so thread the needle. 850's from the city east are far less than ideal, yes I know they crash but there is going to be taint involved and maybe significant taint. Also, most of the "snow maps" are for 10:1 ratios and include sleet/mix. This is not a 10:1 event from start to finish and like I said there will be mix/change for a while perhaps as much as 30-40 miles inland over NNJ. I think 10:1 or greater will have to wait until CCB get going and you need to be under it to get good intensity. I don't mean to be downer, I love snow as much as the next guy just trying to keep it real. This is not a text book KU or biblical event here. It has the POTENTIAL to be a major (8-14") event for SOME if all goes perfectly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 temps.gif http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=us&pkg=T850a&runtime=2015012112&fh=72&xpos=0&ypos=453.3333 If you need help clearing up some muddy waters . This is the 12z Euro at NYC Hour 72 850`s MINUS 2 . BL 30 Hour 78 850`s PLUS 1 BL 32 .6 Hour 84 850`s MINUS 3 BL 33 .7 So is this OTS or so close it has to rain ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2015 Author Share Posted January 21, 2015 18z GFS, surface low over FL Panhandle hour 54. It's a touch more amplified than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2015 Author Share Posted January 21, 2015 Hour 57 near SE GA. Moisture knocking on the door of DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2015 Author Share Posted January 21, 2015 Hour 60 over coastal SC. It's SE of the Euro position by about 50 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2015 Author Share Posted January 21, 2015 Hour 63 over the Outer Banks. Precip almost up to TTN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2015 Author Share Posted January 21, 2015 Hour 66 trough going negative tilt. Surface low just E of OBX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2015 Author Share Posted January 21, 2015 Hour 69 NE of OBX. Steady precip up to ACY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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