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Pittsburgh, PA Thread: Winter '14-'15


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So far the Canadian looks good.The storm to me seems to be slowing down which could give us our 10 incher if it can hold the track or move slightly South.

 

Still time for movement but we are on the edge.

Checking frame by frame it looks like approx 31 hours all snow Pittsburgh and North and some mixing issues Wash Co to WV Border but for only about 5 hours of the storm. My guess now would be 6-12 with 12 north and 6 south. 

As we all know still time to change but I believe worst case scenario will be 6 inches for all of us.

Let's hope we can stay snow down to Morgantown so we can all cash in.

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One product issued by NWS for: Pittsburgh PA


Winter Storm Watch
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA1206 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015OHZ039-048>050-057>059-PAZ021-029-073-075-WVZ001>003-310115-/O.NEW.KPBZ.WS.A.0001.150201T0900Z-150202T1700Z/TUSCARAWAS-COSHOCTON-HARRISON-JEFFERSON OH-MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-ALLEGHENY-WASHINGTON-WESTMORELAND-FAYETTE-HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW PHILADELPHIA...COSHOCTON...CADIZ...STEUBENVILLE...ZANESVILLE...CAMBRIDGE...ST. CLAIRSVILLE...PITTSBURGH METRO AREA...WASHINGTON...GREENSBURG...LATROBE...UNIONTOWN...WEIRTON...BETHANY...WHEELING1206 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGHMONDAY MORNING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGHMONDAY MORNING.* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH.* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO 6 INCHES.* SNOW/ICE BEGINNING...EARLY SUNDAY.* PERIOD OF MOST INTENSE SNOW/ICE...SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.* SNOW/ICE ENDING...MONDAY AFTERNOON.* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO  ACCUMULATION OF A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW AND ICE.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THAT SNOW OR ICE ACCUMULATION MAYSEVERELY IMPACT TRAVEL. PREPARE FOR WINTER WEATHER AND MONITOR THELATEST FORECASTS VIA THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOMEPAGE NOAAWEATHER RADIO OR OTHER NEWS MEDIA.&&
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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1206 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

OHZ040-041-PAZ007-013-014-020-022-310115-
/O.NEW.KPBZ.WS.A.0001.150201T0900Z-150202T1700Z/
CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-MERCER-LAWRENCE-BUTLER-BEAVER-ARMSTRONG-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CARROLLTON...SALEM...GROVE CITY...
NEW CASTLE...BUTLER...BEAVER...KITTANNING
1206 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...6 INCHES OR GREATER.

* SNOW BEGINNING...EARLY SUNDAY.

* PERIOD OF MOST INTENSE SNOW...SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.

* SNOW ENDING...MONDAY AFTERNOON.

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So far the Canadian looks good.The storm to me seems to be slowing down which could give us our 10 incher if it can hold the track or move slightly South.

 

Still time for movement but we are on the edge.

Checking frame by frame it looks like approx 31 hours all snow Pittsburgh and North and some mixing issues Wash Co to WV Border but for only about 5 hours of the storm. My guess now would be 6-12 with 12 north and 6 south. 

As we all know still time to change but I believe worst case scenario will be 6 inches for all of us.

Let's hope we can stay snow down to Morgantown so we can all cash in.

Canadian looks almost identical to the GFS.

 

We definitely want it to go south, even 50 miles would do it for most of us. One thing this storm has that is unusual is some serious arctic air pressing in so that should help so long as it doesn't go to far north.

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Canadian looks almost identical to the GFS.

 

We definitely want it to go south, even 50 miles would do it for most of us. One thing this storm has that is unusual is some serious arctic air pressing in so that should help so long as it doesn't go to far north.

I think if this thing is going to come south a bit it has to do it in the next 12-18 hrs. I recall mainly slight north shifts RIGHT before storms but could be wrong.

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img-resized.png Reduced: 68% of original size [ 978 x 695 ] - Click to view full image

lrm84ni.png

 

I think a lot of us would take this if it were to verify verbatim, but as we have been saying all day a 50 mile shift South would be great. Want to see that 12 inch run no further north than the M/D line. Does anyone know when all the players get fully sampled? I think 00z tonight, but maybe not until 12z tomorrow. I think we have narrowed in on the track today, but we are so close a minor change one way or another is going to make a major difference.

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I think a lot of us would take this if it were to verify verbatim, but as we have been saying all day a 50 mile shift South would be great. Want to see that 12 inch run no further north than the M/D line. Does anyone know when all the players get fully sampled? I think 00z tonight, but maybe not until 12z tomorrow. I think we have narrowed in on the track today, but we are so close a minor change one way or another is going to make a major

The namedifference.

Nam and gfs. Were sampled last night ,,

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I really want this to bump a little more south so we can ALL cash in for a change.

Yep. Looks like even a 25-50 mile shift south will do it.  I live right on the Peters/Wash Co.  line and looks like the 3-5  inch line is right there.   At least I have my expectations set so I won't be as disappointed when we get a big F you from the warm tongue....

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PIT:
 

CODE
ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: PIT    LAT=  40.50 LON=  -80.22 ELE=  1224

                                            12Z JAN30
                 2 M     SFC     SFC     850     700    6 HR     500    1000 
                 TMP     DEW     PRS     TMP     RHU     QPF     HGT     500 
                 (F)     (F)    (MB)     (F)    (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK 
FRI 12Z 30-JAN                                                                  
FRI 18Z 30-JAN  21.4     8.8    1027     1.5      16    0.01     534     514    
SAT 00Z 31-JAN   8.9     3.6    1031     0.2      11    0.00     540     516    
SAT 06Z 31-JAN   0.4    -3.5    1032     7.8      54    0.00     541     517    
SAT 12Z 31-JAN  -4.6    -9.1    1031     7.5      94    0.00     543     520    
SAT 18Z 31-JAN  26.5    12.7    1027    15.1      71    0.00     549     528    
SUN 00Z 01-FEB  18.4    14.4    1026    17.9      13    0.00     553     532    
SUN 06Z 01-FEB  18.5    15.1    1024    19.0      39    0.00     552     533    
SUN 12Z 01-FEB  23.2    21.1    1023    19.5      98    0.03     550     532    
SUN 18Z 01-FEB  29.6    26.5    1019    23.5      97    0.12     548     533    
MON 00Z 02-FEB  30.2    29.5    1012    25.6     100    0.22     546     536    
MON 06Z 02-FEB  31.8    31.0    1004    27.3     100    0.40     541     537    
MON 12Z 02-FEB  29.0    27.1    1002    23.9      99    0.19     531     529    
MON 18Z 02-FEB  19.2     9.7    1014    10.5      83    0.12     528     517
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PIT:

CODE

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: PIT LAT= 40.50 LON= -80.22 ELE= 1224

12Z JAN30

2 M SFC SFC 850 700 6 HR 500 1000

TMP DEW PRS TMP RHU QPF HGT 500

(F) (F) (MB) (F) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK

FRI 12Z 30-JAN

FRI 18Z 30-JAN 21.4 8.8 1027 1.5 16 0.01 534 514

SAT 00Z 31-JAN 8.9 3.6 1031 0.2 11 0.00 540 516

SAT 06Z 31-JAN 0.4 -3.5 1032 7.8 54 0.00 541 517

SAT 12Z 31-JAN -4.6 -9.1 1031 7.5 94 0.00 543 520

SAT 18Z 31-JAN 26.5 12.7 1027 15.1 71 0.00 549 528

SUN 00Z 01-FEB 18.4 14.4 1026 17.9 13 0.00 553 532

SUN 06Z 01-FEB 18.5 15.1 1024 19.0 39 0.00 552 533

SUN 12Z 01-FEB 23.2 21.1 1023 19.5 98 0.03 550 532

SUN 18Z 01-FEB 29.6 26.5 1019 23.5 97 0.12 548 533

MON 00Z 02-FEB 30.2 29.5 1012 25.6 100 0.22 546 536

MON 06Z 02-FEB 31.8 31.0 1004 27.3 100 0.40 541 537

MON 12Z 02-FEB 29.0 27.1 1002 23.9 99 0.19 531 529

MON 18Z 02-FEB 19.2 9.7 1014 10.5 83 0.12 528 517

I dont know how to read this. Care to explain?
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I think its a thump at the airport verbatim...lots of posters in the zone where things get tight. Here is to 50 miles south

From my understanding of that chart. You need to look at the 540 line in addition to the 850 line.  If you look at the 540 line  the good thump comes right above that 541 so that may be a mix at times.  Anything falls below the 540 line should be all snow.

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