north pgh Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Check out where the heaviest band is at the back end of this storm. It almost cuts Allegheny County in half. Don't give up yet. This system has 30+ hours of straight precip and somebody around I-80 and just south will score a foot. Odds are it will still be North of us but remember the models are not 100% correct and 50 miles or so will make a big difference. Yes I am hugging this model but this model has done the best with these larger storms over the last several years if that low goes under us and precip rates are heavy we could still burst snow big time. If this goes north tomorrow afternoon then I will be worried. Until then we are mostly still in the game for a big event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 We are going to shunt south gradually in the next 30 hrs. The nam and gfs Are underestimating that H to our north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Polar Vortex 2014 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 After further review, here is my revised first call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I wonder if a more west to east orientation means less warm air as long as SLP winds below the M/D? Thinking of an analog Dec '03. I think that was a more of a bowling ball but real similar west to east type track with a southern stream system. Went *just* south of the border. I was super lucky living in Penn Hills at the time - 13". It was otherwise an 8-12" snowfall where mixing had been a potential issue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 12/5/03 - 850 low was definitely south so that could be a key Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Lol, the 6z NAM is a nightmare. It is so far north we get dry slotted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Lol, the 6z NAM is a nightmare. It is so far north we get dry slotted.Hopefully the northern tier and southern tiers of ny still get in the game. I'm in rochester, so i've been watching this northern trend with interest. but i hope it STOPS soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 This is going to be slop guys. Time to accept it I'm afraid. The north trend continues. The NWS is only calling for 1-3 in my area tomorrow before the mixing begins, which will be in the afternoon. Back to snow late tomorrow night so maybe another inch or two after that if I'm lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tsteel Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 0z euro is also more northern track but not as much as Gfs/NAM. The track of the low will probably continuing to trend north with today's model runs, which would mean milder air pushing even further north. So I think that PGH metro and South will be counting on backend snow, because it's likely a slop mess with the initial precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Well as far I feel this winter is over for me. I can't continue to track storms 10 days out only to be disappointed 2 days before. I am canceling my subscription and just stepping away. Hopefully we can pull off a miracle but to the north it goes. Goodbye all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rdd9108 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Before I go here is JBs thoughts on the north trend. He is wrong When I laid this storm out earlier in the week, when models were well south, the call was for a low to get to southern Ohio, then reform on the coast and head out s of New England. GIven that the corridor of heaviest snow is now closer to I-80 than I-70, there has been a north adjustment, not so much in the position of the low over Se Ohio, but further east. But should that continue. I dont think so, it may continue on the models till tomorrow then come back south again. Why? The negative NAO right now the track will be influenced. The GFS, perhaps correctly, simply bully the storm through the mountains . This looks wrong. First of all cold dry air is drilling south off the east coast. This air will be pulled back in as the storm comes in, and though it would have warmed on its journey south, it cools coming back if moistened. 2cnd. Where ever the precip breaks out, the cold air will fight, even if the fresh cold to the north has not arrived. This is a cold air mass, its still cold advecting, Hard to believe within 48 hours and after so much precip, its routed. 3rd. The front from the north. This is going to keep pressing east of the mountains and as it does it will be drawn in. The fact is that a storm pulls air from every where, including in front of it, toward it. If you think about how that works, the wind blowing from higher pressure to lower pressure in the low levels, when the rate of Warm advection is greater than rate of warming in the low levels, is what leads to upward motion. Have a reason for the low levels to fight, there is greater overrunning which in turn changes the pressure field. Moral: Watch where it starts as snow.. chances are any place more than 100 miles north of that stays snow ( with some sleet at the height of the storm) The ECMWF ensemble shows what I am talking about, as it has the "damming" look for the low, with the warm front being the boundary the low goes too There is something that does bother me, the trough is really getting strong here.. I knew it would be stronger than the models that shoved this south had from early in the week, but this is bombing out. The waterloo though is on the east coast, for the negative NAO that so many of you hold so dear, should favor the storm reforming rather than just bowling straight through. a rounded low like that will push warm air further north, but the damming idea woutd keep the baroclinic zone north of the Mason Dixon line there. Its my idea that this moves along the boundary between increasing warmth and old cold and then once to the mtns, pulls in the new cold air and then tracks east. The GFS seems to simply run it along the boundary then goes to where it thinks the new cold boundary is, which would be further north if there is no damming, just a rounded low Get ready to play this out again in about 10 days, whether the system in the midweek fizzles or not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Time to pull hard for the Euro per NWS: LARGELY KEPT THE QPF PLACEMENT AND NUMBERS THE SAME...BLENDING THELATEST WPC GUIDANCE WITH THE PREVIOUS NUMBERS. THE WARMER AIRINVADING UP THE WRN SLOPES OF THE RIDGES WILL WORK TO KEEP OUR SERNZONES RAIN LONGER AND ULTIMATELY CUT INTO SNOW TOTALS FOR THEDURATION OF THE EVENT. HOW FAR NORTH THAT WARM AIR IS ABLE TO INVADEIS ANOTHER QUESTION. IF THE H85 LOW FOLLOWS THE CURRENT ECMWFTRACK...THE PGH METRO WILL STAY NEARLY ALL SNOW. IF IT FOLLOWS THEMORE NORTHERN TRACK...SEVERAL HOURS OF RAIN DURING THE TIME OF BESTPRECIPITATION COULD CUT INTO THE PGH METRO TOTALS AS WELL. This really is a shame, I mean we will be well below average on temperatures for the next 7-10 days except possibly for the 6 hour period of most intense precipitation Sunday night into Monday. Euro Map, at this point I'd take that verbatim if I could just to cut my losses but it seems ridiculous that we can't get a 50 mile shift South that would put almost everyone into some sort of decent snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Hopefully the northern tier and southern tiers of ny still get in the game. I'm in rochester, so i've been watching this northern trend with interest. but i hope it STOPS soon. Yeah, in this hobby one regions loss is usually another regions gain and we have all been on both ends of that situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Well as far I feel this winter is over for me. I can't continue to track storms 10 days out only to be disappointed 2 days before. I am canceling my subscription and just stepping away. Hopefully we can pull off a miracle but to the north it goes. Goodbye all. I just think about all of the time I waste tracking these storms that are out of my control. I must be insane. Its like the person throwing his paycheck at the lottery. Its such a long shot its plain stupid. I know our climate is not conducive to 6+ inch storms yet I come here waiting for the next one. It took a while but this storm opened my eyes to how much time I waste. I need a new hobby or be committed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderhead Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Well as far I feel this winter is over for me. I can't continue to track storms 10 days out only to be disappointed 2 days before. I am canceling my subscription and just stepping away. Hopefully we can pull off a miracle but to the north it goes. Goodbye all. My advice is to not track individual storms 10 days out. I know we have model solutions that go out 4 weeks, but that doesn't mean they are as accurate as a forecast with 24-hour lead time! For storms, focus on the 48 hours lead time. Taking solutions verbatim earlier than that is just asking for a bust. There have been instances in the past where solutions have locked in with a longer lead time, but they probably occurred in different background flow regimes (i.e. slower!) in which the vort max was over North America for a longer period of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 My advice is to not track individual storms 10 days out. I know we have model solutions that go out 4 weeks, but that doesn't mean they are as accurate as a forecast with 24-hour lead time! For storms, focus on the 48 hours lead time. Taking solutions verbatim earlier than that is just asking for a bust. There have been instances in the past where solutions have locked in with a longer lead time, but they probably occurred in different background flow regimes (i.e. slower!) in which the vort max was over North America for a longer period of time. Thunder what do u think will happen?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 NAM is ever so slightly South. FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 NAM is ever so slightly South. FWIW A tick south is a a giant first step Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderhead Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Thunder what do u think will happen?? I think the 850 low tracking north of PIT is a signature of a changeover to rain for Allegheny County and points south. Even the 0z Euro shows this track. The 0z Euro did not have temps going above 0C for PIT, but I think that will change with time. The warm air advection on the eastern side of the 850 low should be too strong to keep temps below 0C at PIT. Early call is 1-3" snow during daylight hours of Sunday. Then PIT changes to plain rain for much of Sunday night. Dry slot moves through (look at 700 hPa relative humidity, and the dry slot showing up in southwesterly flow) late Sunday night/early Monday morning. Some back-edge snow showers could then occur late Monday morning-midday hours before the main shortwave trough axis propagates east of PIT. Additional accumulation Monday < 1" at PIT. Of course, north of I-80 different story...some places that stay all snow could get to 8". I know this scenario is annoying for snow lowers in PIT, but climo is climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Polar Vortex 2014 Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 After further review, here is my revised first call. snowstorm.jpg The Weather Channel posted a map for the Pittsburgh metro area live on air about 10 minutes ago. It looked very similar to my revised first call. They had 1" at Waynesburg, 2" at Washington and Morgantown, 3" at Latrobe, 4" at Pittsburgh, and 7" at Beaver Falls. A couple other 5-7" totals north of the city but I didn't catch the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I think the 850 low tracking north of PIT is a signature of a changeover to rain for Allegheny County and points south. Even the 0z Euro shows this track. The 0z Euro did not have temps going above 0C for PIT, but I think that will change with time. The warm air advection on the eastern side of the 850 low should be too strong to keep temps below 0C at PIT. Early call is 1-3" snow during daylight hours of Sunday. Then PIT changes to plain rain for much of Sunday night. Dry slot moves through (look at 700 hPa relative humidity, and the dry slot showing up in southwesterly flow) late Sunday night/early Monday morning. Some back-edge snow showers could then occur late Monday morning-midday hours before the main shortwave trough axis propagates east of PIT. Additional accumulation Monday < 1" at PIT. Of course, north of I-80 different story...some places that stay all snow could get to 8". I know this scenario is annoying for snow lowers in PIT, but climo is climo. Ok. Thank u. Sounds like a good forecast, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Nam is noticeably south... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 NAM is ever so slightly South. FWIW Yeah, very marginal probably makes very little difference to sensible weather at the surface. Could just be run to run variance or its just coming into line with the slightly more southern solutions or it could be the start of a marginal correction south that we may see in the rest of the 12z models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I'm done. Ready for warm weather. Worst Winter Ever!! Sent from my iPhone You just got about 7 inches of snow earlier this week, as did most of us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 Yeah, very marginal probably makes very little difference to sensible weather at the surface. Could just be run to run variance or its just coming into line with the slightly more southern solutions or it could be the start of a marginal correction south that we may see in the rest of the 12z models. While ny. City was rain now all prozen per nam. That's a lot nothing. ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 I'm praying gfs comes a little south ,,,,not much. Are luck in this area. Is south trend keep going and we end up fringed .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinkbugspecialist Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 We have 3 things in our favor, H to the north during this entire storm.. At night when change over is supposed to happen , then our snow pack and ground temperatures.. Keep hope alive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 GFS says we are done. Time to move on to the next one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 31, 2015 Share Posted January 31, 2015 GFS says we are done. Time to move on to the next one. Yep, its over if GFS is right. I-80 may even see rain this run. Worst outcome, bitter cold, followed by 1 inch of rain to wipe out the snow pack then bitter cold again. Now we wait for NWS to drop watches........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.