toxictwister00 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 FFC is very interested... AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA253 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2015 .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...SHORTWAVE IS EXITING THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH JUSTSOME LINGERING POPS IN EXTREME NORTH AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA.NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSUREDEVELOPING EARLY IN THE WORKWEEK WILL PROVIDE FOR FAIRLY BENIGNWEATHER WITH SLOWLY INCREASING TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER WEAKSHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND HAVECONTINUED TREND OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...WITH OVERNIGHTTEMPERATURES TOO WARM FOR ANY P-TYPE CONCERNS.BEYOND THAT...MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN DIVERGING FOR THE NEXT SYSTEMPOTENTIAL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. 12Z ECMWF CONTINUES THETREND OF THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF WITH SPREADING MOISTURE FROMTHE GULF ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNINGFROM A STRONG SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE PLAINS. 12Z GFS HOWEVER DOESNOT PHASE THE PLAINS SHORTWAVE WITH THE GREAT LAKES LONGWAVETROUGH AND KEEPS THE POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JETS SEPARATE...LEAVING GEORGIA IN A DRY SUBSIDENT REGIME. 12Z GFS IS ALSOTRENDING COLDER BUT BY DOING THIS IS ACTUALLY MORE IN LINE WITHTHE 00Z ECMWF TEMPS...WITH THE 12Z MEX INDICATING 33 FOR ATL /00ZMEX WAS 38...00Z ECM WAS 34/. SO...ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA...WITHTHESE TEMPS PLUS MOISTURE INDICATED ON THE MORE CONSISTENTECMWF...HAVE ADDED A RAIN/SNOW MIX GENERALLY NORTH METRO ATLANTATO THE STATE LINE FOR FRIDAY MORNING. CANNOT OVER-EMPHASIZE THEAMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME /WE ARE TALKING DAY 6 AFTERALL/ SO THIS WILL BE ADJUSTED AND REFINED AS WE GET CLOSER.TDP http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=FFC&issuedby=FFC&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 This is what KCAE currently thinks: (I'm currently in 100% agreement with this) THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA. AS WE GET INTO THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING AND MOVING EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THATS WHERE THE DIFFERENCE START. THE GFS BRINGS THE SYSTEM THROUGH DRY ON FRIDAY...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF MOVES IT THROUGH RATHER WET DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT IF THE ECMWF IS RIGHT AND THE SYSTEM IS WET...TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE...WITH OVERNIGHT READINGS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. READINGS ON FRIDAY ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO AROUND 50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 16, 2015 Author Share Posted January 16, 2015 What I didn't like about today's 12Z runs as regards 1/23 is the overall less cold leading up to it. Hopefully, these runs were a blip and colder trend will resume to get this to be a much more widespread snowstorm like was seen at 0Z. Today's model consensus really backed off of cold in much of the E US for late Jan vs early yesterday! Not what I wanted to see at all. Hopefully, the models will go back to colder soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 I agree Larry, it will be nice to see the push of cold right ahead of the "storm". We need some cold source or it won't matter what storm or not storm is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 18z GFS *yes I know* is looking better, and I don't think its going to bury the energy back there. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Plenty of cold air on the 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 It's colder for a lot of areas. System, idk about.. looks squashed from surface maps. just quickly glancing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 The cold air is there on the front side of the storm, but it has to phase in the s plains, else there is no storm and you don't get the crashing heights to maintain the cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Didn't hang back Chris but it's still getting suppressed in the GOM at hr 159 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 welll....I take that back...gonna so suppressed its crazy..This is actually where I like the GFS being. IF* it still has its bias of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Didn't hang back Chris but it's still getting suppressed in the GOM at hr 159 yup...its possible! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 16, 2015 Author Share Posted January 16, 2015 As always, everything has to be so perfect to get a widespread SE snowstorm. Otherwise, they wouldn't occur only once every couple of years on average. Although cold enough on the 18Z GFS, there is no moist WSW 500 mb flow above the cold air to bring in the moisture and bring a Miller A ENEward over the N GOM. If we can only go back to those beautiful runs of yesterday's GFS/Euro. That was a near perfect setup for a SE snowstorm! A cold enough Arctic high to the north extending just enough influence to the SE to make it cold enough (850's 0C or colder) while there is WSW 500 mb flow and a weak Miller A traversing the N GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 "Honestly the biggest thing I wanted to see from the OP and ENS is the time frame start getting closer and closer with this potential threat. Ie, I won't want to see it always in the D8-10 timeframe...so, IMHO its at least a good sign the time is getting shorter and shorter. We are about D6-7 for the most part now." Chris, that's why I'm happy to see it running down around Fla with suppressed glee. I hate seeing it as good as it can get out early. I want some suppression so I can urge it north, and get warm so I can try to pull the cold down Mind over weather...makes 'em special when you can help make it happen, lol. I love this pattern the GFS is showing us. Storms wrapping up in the gulf instead of dragging across, and cold air hovering around to the north. Get that going in winter, and one will hit, maybe two. I think any time it rains down here now, there's at least a chance. Got close yesterday. Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 That was a real fantasy storm at the end of the GFS 18z run... Especially that high over the eastern part of the country! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 The 12z JMA has a beastly storm. Might be a little warm, though I'd guess it's at worst a mixed precip event bere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 18z GEFS has several big hits for next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 18z GEFS has several big hits for next weekend. who, what, where and how ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 18z GEFS has several big hits for next weekend.who are you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 The 12z JMA has a beastly storm. Might be a little warm, though I'd guess it's at worst a mixed precip event bere. JMA would be a big hit, nice looking winter storm. First time that I recall the JMA showing anything at all this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 who are you? LOL...not saying it's going to happen, just saying what it shows. Not bad ENS run, about half the members show something and several oud good hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 17, 2015 Author Share Posted January 17, 2015 JMA would be a big hit, nice looking winter storm. First time that I recall the JMA showing anything at all this winter. Pack, Nice hit for whom? Also, where is the 0C 850 line? Where does the low track? Is it a Miller A? Does it look like those great runs of yesterday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 who, what, where and how ... 3 of the members have snow down in north FL too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 3 of the members have snow down in north FL too. Any way you can post a map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Pack, Nice hit for whom? Also, where is the 0C 850 line? Where does the low track? Is it a Miller A? Does it look like those great runs of yesterday? Miller A....Looks like SLP tracks right over HAT after this. I don't have surface but 540 line is in southern VA at 180 but temps crash as the SLP tracks over HAT. Looks like rain to snow would be a guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Any way you can post a map? 2 other members look similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 17, 2015 Author Share Posted January 17, 2015 Miller A....Looks like SLP tracks right over HAT after this. I don't have surface but 540 line is in southern VA at 180 but temps crash as the SLP tracks over HAT. Looks like rain to snow would be a guess. Thanks. What about the 0C 850 line from AL to SC/NC? Where does it line up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 2 other members look similar. Yikes! and mexico looks like a road trip - fast and furious (pun definitely intended) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Thanks. What about the 0C 850 line from AL to SC/NC? Where does it line up? This is all I can see.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 I'm gonna cash out with the jma. Fwiw the navgem has an apps runner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 2 other members look similar. Chase to Brownsville FTW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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