Stebo Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Liking this potential locally, could eek out a few inches if models hold. Looks like a concensus is starting to form for a nice little hit (1-3") locally. Only the Euro is a hair weak/south but it has been tending to be drier than reality with these systems as of late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Colts play at Denver Sunday so we don't have to worry about fans coming home here in Indy from anything but game parties. But I for one am concerned about freezing rain with this one, even if we don't have a good ne flow. As cold as it's been there could be a significant ice potential for the I-70 corridor or nearby Sunday eve into Monday. IND discussion still uncertain except for saying snow and ice possible. ILX has already issued a special weather statement concerning freezing rain for their CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2015 Author Share Posted January 9, 2015 .7 in my hourly .... Looks like a decently sharp cutoff somewhere around there. Some decent frontogenesis signals showing up with a deep layer of relatively steep lapse rates aloft. Sometimes those bands overperform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Looks like there's a possibility of about 0.2" liquid equivalent worth of snow, sleet, and freezing rain in Ohio and Indiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Looks like a decently sharp cutoff somewhere around there. Some decent frontogenesis signals showing up with a deep layer of relatively steep lapse rates aloft. Sometimes those bands overperform. Yeah i'm picturing a pretty solid band to my south that seems to just not move north at all....then maybe a thinner weaker band or 2 running through the chicago metro. But, yeah...that main band could provide some mini thumpin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 I know it sounds a bit cliche-ish and desperate, but the shortwave in question (just off the shore of California) for Sunday night won't be fully sampled until 12z tomorrow. It's going to be partially sampled for the 00z runs. So I wouldn't rule out any significant changes/shifts with this one just yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 9, 2015 Share Posted January 9, 2015 Also, FWIW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 10, 2015 Author Share Posted January 10, 2015 I know it sounds a bit cliche-ish and desperate, but the shortwave in question (just off the shore of California) for Sunday night won't be fully sampled until 12z tomorrow. It's going to be partially sampled for the 00z runs. So I wouldn't rule out any significant changes/shifts with this one just yet... 1/30/1982 was one of the dates on the CIPS analogs. Not happening, but hey, we can dream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 1/30/1982 was one of the dates on the CIPS analogs. Not happening, but hey, we can dream. There was an overrunning event I think took place in either 2008 or 2009 that may also be a good analog. It produced 2-4" of snow here before transitioning to ice/rain (it was a major ice storm for Ohio I believe), then we headed back into the freezer. A low didn't really wound up with it, as it was also a mainly strong frontogenesis event... I'll see if I can find the exact date it happened and post it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 10, 2015 Author Share Posted January 10, 2015 Here's the CIPS list fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 There was an overrunning event I think took place in either 2008 or 2009 that may also be a good analog. It produced 2-4" of snow here before transitioning to ice/rain (it was a major ice storm for Ohio I believe), then we headed back into the freezer. A low didn't really wound up with it, as it was also a mainly strong frontogenesis event... I'll see if I can find the exact date it happened and post it. I'm thinking of 12/23/08. It's actually evolved aloft fairly differently, so maybe not a good analog (at least not any more than 1/30/1982) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 10, 2015 Author Share Posted January 10, 2015 Slight alteration in the height fields on the 00z NAM so far...should allow a bump north from 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Slight alteration in the height fields on the 00z NAM so far...should allow a bump north from 18z. I don't see much difference...well, compared to the last "fully sampled/data ingested" run (12z). 18z though was a funner run for us, but isn't that always the case. And finally...it's the NAM. Trust it right now like I do the 18 hour map of the RAP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 A little less QPF on the snow side it looks like but precip does get a little further north. Would be an inch up to MBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 10, 2015 Author Share Posted January 10, 2015 I don't see much difference...well, compared to the last "fully sampled/data ingested" run (12z). 18z though was a funner run for us, but isn't that always the case. And finally...it's the NAM. Trust it right now like I do the 18 hour map of the RAP. I did say slight. Certainly not big and could go back the other way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 10, 2015 Author Share Posted January 10, 2015 A little less QPF on the snow side it looks like but precip does get a little further north. Would be an inch up to MBY Nasty cutoff on this simulated reflectivity. Precip makes good northward progress and then hits a brick wall before collapsing. Obviously exact placement still up in the air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 0z 4km NAM has a nice weenie band for La Salle, Grundy, Will, and far southern Cook...Lake and Porter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 0z GFS bumped north too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 10, 2015 Author Share Posted January 10, 2015 00z NAM has just over .25" precip as freezing rain at IND. Temps flirt with freezing some of the time but highest 3 hourly precip is only around .1, which would be good for maximizing accretion. Looks like the 00z GFS is drier there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 10, 2015 Author Share Posted January 10, 2015 0z GFS bumped north too. 00z GGEM gets the "weenie band", as Tim called it, into Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 First and last call for QC- nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 00z GGEM gets the "weenie band", as Tim called it, into Chicago. Wagons north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 The Euro bumped north too. Not GEM north but a decent wagon trip from the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Not a surprise given the gem...but the rgem looked to be setting up nice locally as well. I was expecting to be watching the main band "rip" just to my south...a shot at overhead seems to be on the table via today's guidance. Haven't been watching...whats triggering the nudges north? Timing/strength of HP coming down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Not a surprise given the gem...but the rgem looked to be setting up nice locally as well. I was expecting to be watching the main band "rip" just to my south...a shot at overhead seems to be on the table via today's guidance. Haven't been watching...whats triggering the nudges north? Timing/strength of HP coming down?Slower timing of the surface cold front is key. But the fact that it's not a strong synoptic system but more gradual northerly cold advection oozing in helps keep the baroclinic zone hung up enough for the stronger fgen to remain farther north even as the surface front does shift south. Also the slower onset of CAA keeps the column more moist. Finally, looking at 850 mb on the NAM, there's a sign of convergence overnight as northerly winds at that level start to push into far northern IL while just to the south winds remain generally out of the west. So this is what the general trend has been tonight and will have to happen to get good snow into the heart of the metro. Will be interesting to see if the Canadian guidance leads the way again like with yesterday's system, because the GGEM was also farther north in the 12z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Slower timing of the surface cold front is key. But the fact that it's not a strong synoptic system but more gradual northerly cold advection oozing in helps keep the baroclinic zone hung up enough for the stronger fgen to remain farther north even as the surface front does shift south. Also the slower onset of CAA keeps the column more moist. Finally, looking at 850 mb on the NAM, there's a sign of convergence overnight as northerly winds at that level start to push into far northern IL while just to the south winds remain generally out of the west. So this is what the general trend has been tonight and will have to happen to get good snow into the heart of the metro. Will be interesting to see if the Canadian guidance leads the way again like with yesterday's system, because the GGEM was also farther north in the 12z suite. Thanks RC....a few cycles left to see if those trends hold in the area...i will have to start watching things a little closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Thanks RC....a few cycles left to see if those trends hold in the area...i will have to start watching things a little closer It's not on the CIPS analog list but this setup reminds me of 1/4/14. That was the day prior to the 'PV Blizzard' that nailed Indiana, when much of northern IL had solid fgen driven snows as the sfc Arctic front and 850 mb front only slowly progressed southward. Progged surface, 850 and 500 mb fields for Sunday night are quite similar to 1/4/14, including the path of the h5 vort max. If you click around the SPC Meso archive and compare to the model fields for Sunday night, the similarities are definitely apparent, though surface high is stronger and farther east in this case. Timing is key though, so things could still shift back south. If 12z guidance is similar or better, we're likely in line for some decent snow given banding potential in this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Work to do but this is showing some similarity to the long duration fgen events we saw last winter. Edit: I see this is covered above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 RGEM also looking north with the fgen band. I know its usually too amped in its longer range but globals are almost always too far south in these setups and the NAM has been north of the globals as well. Meso's may end up closer to reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 12z NAM definitely came in north of 6z with the precip shield/Fgen banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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