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nflwxman

2015 Global Temperatures

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Warmest November on record according to NCDC. 

Here is the NOAA year-to-date - 0.14C warmer than last year. Next year will likely be roughly 0.1C warmer.

post-1201-0-08071000-1450451328_thumb.pn

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Hard to really put where next year will land IMO. Depends on how quickly the +ENSO phase dissolves, and how quickly any potential -ENSO event takes over. 

Temperatures lag ENSO though, so a transition to strong nina conditions by winter 2016/17 would still produce a  record warm 2016, as in 1998, followed by a cooler 2017.  While this nino has peaked, there is no sign of a sudden collapse,  with a strong WWB currently underway,

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Temperatures lag ENSO though, so a transition to strong nina conditions by winter 2016/17 would still produce a  record warm 2016, as in 1998, followed by a cooler 2017.  While this nino has peaked, there is no sign of a sudden collapse,  with a strong WWB currently underway,

Yes but the lag w/ surface temps is only 3-4 months. So if we begin a faster collapse than 97-98 in the first half of the year then that would reflect on the second half of the year.

 

In addition I believe that the first half of 2015 was made warmer by the +ENSO conditions that were already prevailing. This is in contrast to 1997 which was -ENSO in the beginning. Thus, we may not experience the same temperature bump for that reason alone.

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Yes but the lag w/ surface temps is only 3-4 months. So if we begin a faster collapse than 97-98 in the first half of the year then that would reflect on the second half of the year.

 

In addition I believe that the first half of 2015 was made warmer by the +ENSO conditions that were already prevailing. This is in contrast to 1997 which was -ENSO in the beginning. Thus, we may not experience the same temperature bump for that reason alone.

 

There is uncertainty regarding 2016, but that cuts both ways, i.e. nino could also persist longer in 2016 vs 1998. Right now there is no sign of a rapid collapse. Temperatures exiting 2015 are higher than the 2015 average and still trending higher similar to the situation exiting 1997. For instance GISS averaged 47 in 1997, but 61 in the last three-months of 1997, and maintained those temperatures on   average in 1998 ending up at 61. This year GISS has averaged 84 through Nov but should end up averaging close to 105 for the last three months. So the temperature trend conditions exiting 2015 are roughly similar to 1997. Right now 100 is my rough estimate for 2016.

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There is uncertainty regarding 2016, but that cuts both ways, i.e. nino could also persist longer in 2016 vs 1998. Right now there is no sign of a rapid collapse. Temperatures exiting 2015 are higher than the 2015 average and still trending higher similar to the situation exiting 1997. For instance GISS averaged 47 in 1997, but 61 in the last three-months of 1997, and maintained those temperatures on   average in 1998 ending up at 61. This year GISS has averaged 84 through Nov but should end up averaging close to 105 for the last three months. So the temperature trend conditions exiting 2015 are roughly similar to 1997. Right now 100 is my rough estimate for 2016.

 

 

I agree there is uncertainty on how fast the Nino collapses and that it cuts both ways.

 

However, fall 1997 had an ONI around -.4 while fall 2014 had an ONI around +.4, almost a 1C warmer. I believe the +ENSO conditions last fall and winter have contributed to the warmth in 2015 relative to 1998. 

 

While it is interesting that 1998 maintained temperatures at what they were the final 3 months of 1997, three months is a short period and this is just one example. Those 3 months could have been cool relative to the ENSO state due to some other weather anomaly. We see a lot of monthly fluctuation that is not related to ENSO. 

 

I went back and looked at other Ninos (72-72, 82-83 and 09-10) and your rule does seem to hold. Temperatures the 2nd year of ENSO tend to be equal to or warmer than the final three months of the first year. 

 

The argument for warmth is a little less if you use the final 4 months instead of the final three because September 2015 was much cooler than O-N-D. But the argument is still pretty good. On the one hand we do appear to have experienced a bit of a stronger spike this O-N-D relative to the other Ninos, but on the other hand the other Ninos were on average warmer than the final three months (97-98 being only equal @ .63).

 

If the final 3 months of this year average 1.05 then I would agree with your prediction of 1.0 for next year. Maybe a few hundredths higher. I still think that the +ENSO last fall and winter may cause the warming to be able to peak a bit earlier than normal which is why I wouldn't go with +1.05-1.10 which is how other Ninos progressed from OND of the previous year.

 

If we do get 1.0-1.05 that would be a very impressive jump.

 

Also the data I looked at said 97-98 was .63 for both '97 OND and for 1998 annual not the .61 you posted. Not sure why there is a discrepancy.

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My GISS values above are in error - thanks for correcting. Note also that the UKMet office is  forecasting an 0.12 rise for HADCRUT next year vs 2015 year-to-date. The UKMet uncertainty range is plus or minus 0.12 so anywhere from no increase for 2016 vs 2015 to a 0.24C increase is within the uncertainty range.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2015/global-temperature

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Pretty impressive warmth at the North Pole for the end of December.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/12/30/freak-storm-has-pushed-north-pole-to-freezing-point-50-degrees-above-normal/

 

 

On Wednesday morning, temperatures over a vast area around North Pole were somewhere between 30 and 35 degrees Fahrenheit, and for at least a brief moment, surpassed the 32-degree threshold at exactly 90 degrees North, according to data from the GFS forecast model.

Data from the International Arctic Buoy Programme confirms that temperatures very close to the North Pole surpassed the melting point on Wednesday. A buoy (WMO ID Buoy 6400476) at a latitude of 87.45 degrees North hit a high temperature of 0.7 degrees Celsius — or 33 degrees Fahrenheit.

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Pretty impressive warmth at the North Pole for the end of December.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/12/30/freak-storm-has-pushed-north-pole-to-freezing-point-50-degrees-above-normal/

On Wednesday morning, temperatures over a vast area around North Pole were somewhere between 30 and 35 degrees Fahrenheit, and for at least a brief moment, surpassed the 32-degree threshold at exactly 90 degrees North, according to data from the GFS forecast model.

Data from the International Arctic Buoy Programme confirms that temperatures very close to the North Pole surpassed the melting point on Wednesday. A buoy (WMO ID Buoy 6400476) at a latitude of 87.45 degrees North hit a high temperature of 0.7 degrees Celsius — or 33 degrees Fahrenheit.

Has that ever happened during this time of year? If zo, how many times in the past did it occur and when?

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NCEP reanalysis for December broke the previous record set in 2006 by 0.35C. December was also a record warm anomaly for any month. Until this year, December hadn't warmed as much as Sept - Nov., which have had a boost from low sea ice.

 

post-1201-0-78653300-1451826563_thumb.pn

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I agree there is uncertainty on how fast the Nino collapses and that it cuts both ways.

However, fall 1997 had an ONI around -.4 while fall 2014 had an ONI around +.4, almost a 1C warmer. I believe the +ENSO conditions last fall and winter have contributed to the warmth in 2015 relative to 1998.

While it is interesting that 1998 maintained temperatures at what they were the final 3 months of 1997, three months is a short period and this is just one example. Those 3 months could have been cool relative to the ENSO state due to some other weather anomaly. We see a lot of monthly fluctuation that is not related to ENSO.

I went back and looked at other Ninos (72-72, 82-83 and 09-10) and your rule does seem to hold. Temperatures the 2nd year of ENSO tend to be equal to or warmer than the final three months of the first year.

The argument for warmth is a little less if you use the final 4 months instead of the final three because September 2015 was much cooler than O-N-D. But the argument is still pretty good. On the one hand we do appear to have experienced a bit of a stronger spike this O-N-D relative to the other Ninos, but on the other hand the other Ninos were on average warmer than the final three months (97-98 being only equal @ .63).

If the final 3 months of this year average 1.05 then I would agree with your prediction of 1.0 for next year. Maybe a few hundredths higher. I still think that the +ENSO last fall and winter may cause the warming to be able to peak a bit earlier than normal which is why I wouldn't go with +1.05-1.10 which is how other Ninos progressed from OND of the previous year.

If we do get 1.0-1.05 that would be a very impressive jump.

Also the data I looked at said 97-98 was .63 for both '97 OND and for 1998 annual not the .61 you posted. Not sure why there is a discrepancy.

There is a massive WWB underway from the dateline to 150E that bleeds all the way to 120E at times

This will generate a massive Kelvin wave.

So I doubt the nino collapses very quickly.

This might even strengthen it

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CFS is currently running at ridiculously high levelslevels are global temperatures for global temperatures.

areas of North America and the Artic basin are running upwards and above 20 degrees Celsius so far for January above normal El Nino is still raging in the Far East subtropical Pacific Ocean is absolutely absurdly above normal.

With a huge area of 28-30C water from mexico to the equator.

Incredible.

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Per our discussion above on 2016 vs 1998. Chart below is from Eric Blake on twitter. Compared to this date in 1998, cooling in the west Pacific subsurface is less extensive this year, so this years nino will probably weaken more slowly than 1998.

 

post-1201-0-44271900-1452086964_thumb.pn

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Surface, Lower Troposphere Warmest on Record in 2015: RATPAC...

 

The RATPAC data revealed that the global surface temperature anomaly and lower troposphere (surface to 500 mb) anomaly were the warmest on record in 2015. The data is as follows:

 

Surface: +1.02°C (beat the record of +0.74°C from 2014)

 

Lower Troposphere: +0.81°C (beat the record of +0.68°C from 2010)

 

Lower Troposphere (excluding the surface): +0.74°C (narrowly beat the record of +0.72°C from 2010)

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Hard to believe this dataset doesn't have something going on without a larger spike from this nino by now.

With UAH v6 global temp not even reaching the 2010 Nino peak peak I have serious doubts. That even RSS is higher should tell you something.

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Hard to believe this dataset doesn't have something going on without a larger spike from this nino by now.

Considering that UAHv6.0 still has not gone to peer review and has a statistical linear cooling trend over time, I'm not surprised that the current El Niño's impact isn't really registering on that dataset. Considering its much larger impact on RATPAC (not to mention the surface datasets), I'm not sure whether UAHv6 in its present state is very useful.

 

I also have some concerns about the indirect microwave measurements (RSS and UAH) in general. Why are they consistently cooler than the other data and even at odds with the radiosonde measurements? Given scientific theory related to lower tropospheric warming, I suspect that it is more likely than not that the microwave data is too cool than the RATPAC data is too warm. Of course, my biggest concern lies with UAHv6.

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UAH V5.6 was 0.55 for December up 0.08 from November.  For the year it was 0.35 up 0.08 from 2014 and coming in 3rd behind 2010 0.40 and 1998 0.42

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Has anyone tried to verify all these global temperature data sets and compare them? It's nearly impossible to confirm all time historical records without comparing to its own data. Why are they so different? I came across two charts from Climate Central reports showing two different global temperature graphs. Wouldn't one expect the trend lines to be more similar?

 

2015 report: http://www.climatecentral.org/news/warming-spurt-looms-will-it-change-minds-on-climate-change-18716

12_19_14_upton_IPO_temperatur_anomoly_72

 

2016 report: http://www.climatecentral.org/news/earth-experiences-global-warming-spurt-19877

1_5_16_upton_PDO_Trenberth_720_335_s_c1_

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The

 

Has anyone tried to verify all these global temperature data sets and compare them? It's nearly impossible to confirm all time historical records without comparing to its own data. Why are they so different? I came across two charts from Climate Central reports showing two different global temperature graphs. Wouldn't one expect the trend lines to be more similar?

 

The charts are consistent. The top chart is annual averages and the second chart is monthly. The top chart is from a 2014 publication and ends in 2012. The bottom chart is recent and includes data since 2012, capturing the current surge to record levels.

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Here comes the Niño spike...

JMA Dec 2015 global temp anomalies jumped up to an amazing +0.67C above the 1981-2010 baseline.

The anomaly relative to the pre-industrial baseline is ~+1.4C.

dec_wld.png

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The monthly anomaly for Jan 2016 is currently running much warmer than the previous month at around +0.8C relative to 1981-2010 baseline. Will be interesting to see where the dallies go from here for the rest of Jan.

days.png

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