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Winter 2014-2015 Pattern Discussion Thread II


JoshM

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Ridge was broken down by 150/153 last run...ridge still strong at 168hrs this run...this cold is going to slowly creep in...

 

PV is pretty much stationary above the hudson....if we can get it to drop sooner with this ridge it would be a good track, this run is probably not going to cut it.

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No OMG this time. :( The 0Z GFS is disappointingly reverting back to the warmer solutions of runs before 12Z with the trough down into the SW US. I wonder when the models are going to make up their minds. Hopefully, the King will not back away from its great 12Z run though I have a bad feeling right now.

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No OMG this time. :( The 0Z GFS is disappointingly reverting back to the warmer solutions of runs before 12Z with the trough down into the SW US. I wonder when the models are going to make up their minds. Hopefully, the King will not back away from its great 12Z run though I have a bad feeling right now.

You have the GFS done? PV starting to drop @183....ridge still in place trough should adjust. Don't have high hopes but it can still end up looking good or OMG.

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No OMG this time. :( The 0Z GFS is disappointingly reverting back to the warmer solutions of runs before 12Z with the trough down into the SW US. I wonder when the models are going to make up their minds. Hopefully, the King will not back away from its great 12Z run though I have a bad feeling right now.

Not really...just a step down

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You have the GFS done? PV starting to drop....ridge still in place trough should adjust.

No, but it is definitely coming in much warmer through hour 168 without that great +PNA look. The run may get interesting later but I'd prefer it not back away from the great look of the 12Z as of days 5-7.

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No, but it is definitely coming in much warmer through hour 168 without that great +PNA look. The run may get interesting later but I'd prefer it not back away from the great look of the 12Z as of days 5-7.

yeah we can't have to cold that far west too soon but it will happen with a ridge looking like that from the get go, tilted east like that. Yeah this run sucks compared to others but not compared to yesterday's.

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After 204 we stay in the icebox but it just looks weird to me. Nothing crazy cold in Canada. 

The cold exited stage right in canada at 216...the core of the cold took way too long to drop to the hudson or further south of it this run and it was part of the demise.

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Good news is there is still a SSW event in the strat maps.  I don't believe energy sitting over the SW half the time.

Yeah I'm hoping it stays through the 144hr time frame and just doesn't get pushed back...unfortunately a lot is riding on the SSW

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Why do you think it dumps more east than what is shown tonight?

There are many, but I will give you one..... The southeast ridge should be of less influence during a Nino year. Without a southeast ridge, there is nothing to hold the cold air at bay. With highs dropping down as strong as what's being modeled, it must come east.

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No OMG this time. :( The 0Z GFS is disappointingly reverting back to the warmer solutions of runs before 12Z with the trough down into the SW US. I wonder when the models are going to make up their minds. Hopefully, the King will not back away from its great 12Z run though I have a bad feeling right now.

I've never seen so much b+++++++ in my life . yesterday the runs sucked and today everything switched to colder runs and now we have an op run that shows a different evolution and people b++++ and moan .

The difference this run was the western ridge . it was further west vs 18z and 12z

12Z and 18Z were so perfectly sexy (as you might put it) that this 0Z run was likely going to disappoint since the runs typically fluctuate. I wouldn't be surprised if 12Z/18Z returns in a later run. Yes, it is nothing like that garbage 0Z of two days back!
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