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Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2


Trent
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1 hour ago, amt5626 said:

Can't say an Enhanced Outlook over Ohio was on my Winter Bingo Card this season.

day1otlk_1300.gif

Severe in mid Jan is never high on the list. Clearing out nicely down in Central OH. Too bad the late weekend system is fading southeast. Big changes with that system on the models the past couple of days. 

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1 hour ago, NEOH said:

Severe in mid Jan is never high on the list. Clearing out nicely down in Central OH. Too bad the late weekend system is fading southeast. Big changes with that system on the models the past couple of days. 

Looks like the Canadian/Rgem and Nam still bring a bit of snow in on Fri and again Sunday. Temps still marginal though. 

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8 minutes ago, dta1984 said:

Looks like the Canadian/Rgem and Nam still bring a bit of snow in on Fri and again Sunday. Temps still marginal though. 

Its definitely not ideal with the marginal temps. The way this Winter is going I will take back to back weekends with snow. 

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18 hours ago, NEOH said:

Its definitely not ideal with the marginal temps. The way this Winter is going I will take back to back weekends with snow. 

Absolutely agree, take what we can!

Severe thunderstorm warning last night and accumulating snow this morning.  Crazy lol. 

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41 minutes ago, dta1984 said:

Absolutely agree, take what we can!

Severe thunderstorm warning last night and accumulating snow this morning.  Crazy lol. 

Just quick burst of strong winds last night IMBY. Nothing special. Ground is covered this morning with the wet snow sticking to everything. 

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5 minutes ago, WHEATCENT said:

another 37-41 degree  January rainstorm next week what garbage. 

Yeah not looking good for us.  The Euro was giving me some hope but I see the 12z finally caved NW.  Hopefully you guys in the snow belt can cash in on some lake effect.

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18 hours ago, vpbob21 said:

Yeah not looking good for us.  The Euro was giving me some hope but I see the 12z finally caved NW.  Hopefully you guys in the snow belt can cash in on some lake effect.

Far too early to call it. Take a look at the ensemble’s… they all have the low in far eastern OH/western PA. Worst case with that solution would be a front end thump then a short changeover. Still a long ways out. 

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Cute little system tomorrow into tomorrow night...it's progressive, but there is respectable jet support and moisture to work with, and lapse rates in and above the DGZ may support some slantwise convection for a few hours in the afternoon. Basically, the synoptic snow won't last too long and it will be on either side of freezing, but there could be a period of 0.5-1" per hour rates and large flakes that roughly comes up along or just southeast of the I-71 corridor beginning late morning in southern OH and getting into northeast OH in the afternoon. There's a period late Sunday night into Monday morning where lingering synoptic moisture and "cool" northwest flow may allow for some lake enhancement to flare-up in the higher terrain southeast of the lake. I'm guessing it's a general 1-3" with the synoptic snow...maybe a localized 4" lollipop if heavier rates impact the higher terrain where it'll accumulate best...followed by a coating to 2" of lake enhancement/upslope in the favored areas. I'm actually kind of looking forward to it! Though, that's more of a product of me liking snow and not getting much of it this winter. 

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I didn't think this one would have much, but maybe I can take some nice pictures of snowflakes and snow cover. I didn't really take a picture of the outside with the Dec 23-24 ground blizzard, as there was some grass showing, and it was a wind chill of -29 and stuff like that.

HREF says 4-6" in coming! ha ha ha. That's the max value of the CAM models, so yeah, it's too high. Honestly I think observations might be 1.5" or 2.0" by tomorrow night or Monday.

snowfall_024h_maxmwf036001.jpg

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Slightly less than 1" new overnight pushing me to slightly less than 6" for a storm total. Should clear the 6" mark with the lingering activity this morning. Wednesday's system looks like a snow to rain to wrap-around/LES situation. It'll be quite spread out but the snowbelt should get a pretty decent amount between Wednesday morning and Thursday night. 

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1 hour ago, amt5626 said:

Liking were I'm at in Perrysburg for the mid-week storm. Feel comfortable saying we get 5-8" here. Seems like good consensus on timing in the guidance. Amounts a bit more variable but seems good enough for WSWs to eventually go out.

You should be ok out west. Looks quite sloppy in this area. Snow to rain then back to snow. Hoping for a bump east in the models today but there's pretty good consensus with the track at this point. Models haven't exactly been performing well so who knows but the WTOD is rarely denied.

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5 hours ago, OHweather said:

Slightly less than 1" new overnight pushing me to slightly less than 6" for a storm total. Should clear the 6" mark with the lingering activity this morning. Wednesday's system looks like a snow to rain to wrap-around/LES situation. It'll be quite spread out but the snowbelt should get a pretty decent amount between Wednesday morning and Thursday night. 

What's your thoughts on the wind direction for les later in the week?  Thought I saw mention of WNW in one of the cle discussions.

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37 minutes ago, Baum said:

headed to northern ohio for work. What's best shot at ground zero for this event? Toledo, Avon, or N, Canton? Leaning Toledo.

At this point Toledo looks like the best place. Should be a good thump on the front end in all locations but Toledo looks to remain all snow. 

 

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