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Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2

Trent

By Trent,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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NEOH
NEOH

Beautiful scenery out there this morning. Over 8" now as well. The trees are taking a beating though... Lots of branches coming down. Great way to start to December. The flake size has been rather sma

OHweather
OHweather

I was a little surprised to wake up and see the forecast from CLE and the watch. It seems like they've cut it back some today, and as Jim's post mentioned went with advisories which is probably the ro

NEOH
NEOH

This will likely be a top 10 storm IMBY for synoptic snow. The flake size with the lake enhanced band has increased and its dumping. Drove into the office and it seems the plows have given up for the

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Lightning

Lightning

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, NEOH said:

Got lucky with only 2.5" last night. Many flooded areas. We'll see what today brings but we've had more than enough rain. 

Got an 1".  Area just (couple miles) to my south got 2-6" with some flooding but I didn't see any significant on my way to work (just some large yard puddles and ditch flooding).

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dta1984

dta1984

Posted
Posted

After a dry start to summer, it's certainly turned into a wet one.  A lot of flooding and a few roof collapses from last night's rain, especially west side.  Looks like another round later this evening.  The yard is nice and green and having issues drying out as of late.  

I've also got a few trees getting some fall color already.  

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NEOH

NEOH

Posted
Posted
48 minutes ago, dta1984 said:

After a dry start to summer, it's certainly turned into a wet one.  A lot of flooding and a few roof collapses from last night's rain, especially west side.  Looks like another round later this evening.  The yard is nice and green and having issues drying out as of late.  

I've also got a few trees getting some fall color already.  

Definitely not common for the ground to be so wet this time of the year. Looks like a strong line will push through overnight. I noticed a few maples changing as well... mostly red colors. 

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NEOH

NEOH

Posted
Posted

Crazy storm last night. Looks like the line weakened as it pushed south across the lakeshore but the winds were strong with intense lightning. Most of Chagrin Falls is without power... wonder if there was a spin up given the extensive amount of tree damage. Only lost power for a short time at home.  

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dta1984

dta1984

Posted
Posted
18 hours ago, NEOH said:

Fall foliage is at or just past peak in this area. Seems a week or so later than last year. Rain the next few days should bring a lot of leaf fall as they are turning and falling quickly. 

Ya seems like some trees turned earlier this year, but others were delayed a bit.  I'm guessing due to the warmer temps earlier in the month.  Should hopefully have all leaves dropped before the first snow.  

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TheClimateChanger

TheClimateChanger

Posted
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Very impressive heat in Cleveland yesterday. The high of 78 and low of 65 were both the highest on record (tie for the maximum temperature).

More notably, the low of 65F has never been exceeded later in the calendar year and only matched twice - November 2, 2016 & incredibly on December 3, 1982.

The mean temperature of 71.5F has been exceeded only once later in the calendar year (72.5F, on 11-1-1950) and matched once (11-2-2016). Needless to say, yesterday was about as warm as it gets for this time of the calendar year.

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OHweather

OHweather

Posted
Posted

Looks like a nice burst of lake enhanced snow Tuesday night as a shortwave moves through. SW winds will shift NW, so probably just a gradually moving burst with the trough axis transitioning to weaker multi-bands behind the trough. It looks like activity shuts down pretty quickly into Wednesday morning. Instability with the setup is extreme, with lake to 500mb temperature differentials of about 50C along with good synoptic support. The band/burst that crashes ashore with the trough axis probably will be accompanied by some lightning. It seems like this burst could affect much of the snowbelt in NE OH/NW PA (both primary and secondary), along with the Cleveland metro and perhaps some counties farther west along the lakeshore. Most areas probably only see a couple hours of good precip, though sometimes these bands can pivot a bit and last a little longer in a localized area as they work through. 

Temperatures will be marginal, though with dew points away from the lake falling into the 20s and 925mb temps dipping to -2C I think it will be cold enough for this burst of precip to fall as mainly snow and graupel away from the lake and probably more graupel with some rain and wet flakes mixed in closer to the lake. Forecast soundings suggest there will be good flake production aloft. Along the lake it may be tough to accumulate much as the ratios will be very low, but inland a bit from the lake could see a 1-3" type accumulation across much of the metro area and snowbelt. There may be enough QPF to play with for some of the highest hills to get a little more than that, but they'd have to get lucky and have a band sit over them. 

It won't last long, but I'm pretty optimistic many of us wake up to some snow on the ground Wednesday morning. 

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NEOH

NEOH

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, LakeEffectOH said:

OHweather, what are your thoughts about the upcoming winter?  Hopefully it will be better than last winter.

Last Winter was about as bad as it gets... won't take much to be better :). Really glad most of the leaves came down over the past week if we do get a couple inches of snow tomorrow night.

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OHweather

OHweather

Posted
Posted
11 hours ago, LakeEffectOH said:

OHweather, what are your thoughts about the upcoming winter?  Hopefully it will be better than last winter.

Here are my comments from the other Ohio thread regarding this winter...I think there's a reasonable chance that we locally see more snow than last winter, but it's hard to expect average or above snowfall IMO.

"Off the cuff, I've had some mixed feelings but unfortunately am leaning pessimistic for our region. Now, could it be somewhat better than last winter? Sure. But much more than that probably is asking a lot. It is looking increasingly likely that this winter will feature a strong, east-based or traditional El Nino. Water temperature anomalies are already near +1.5C in Nino region 3.4, and don't appear likely to start cooling anytime soon. And the warmest anomalies are closer to South America, making this a more traditional El Nino. This likely means the sub-tropical jet will be quite active and that Pacific air will frequently flood the continent, making it hard to build up true cold air over Canada. This will be an El Nino with a -QBO (easterly wind anomalies in the stratosphere), which is a good combination for possible disruptions to the stratospheric polar vortex. That could lead to a -AO/-NAO trend later in winter. So, if we do see a period of blocking and the sub-tropical jet is active perhaps there's some potential for a larger system to produce snow out of the sub-tropical stream. However, I think the strong El Nino and lack of Arctic air will lead to fewer clippers than normal and generally less snow than normal, unless we get lucky with some sub-tropical jet help.

There has been a lot of talk that this isn't a winter to use strong El Nino climo for the winter outlook, and I understand some of the reservations as the pattern hasn't acted like a developing strong El Nino this summer. I think the lingering affects on the atmospheric circulation after 3 years of La Nina, aided by a strong -PDO, and the anomalous warmth of the Atlantic offset the atmospheric response to the developing El Nino...however, I believe we're starting to see the atmosphere respond to the borderline strong El Nino and strong positive Indian Ocean dipole. Tropical forcing is beginning to become more persistent over the western Indian Ocean and the Pacific. While perhaps the lingering oddities can lead to a random cold shot in later November or December if we briefly get some help from the MJO before the El Nino pattern truly locks in, I'm thinking this winter does act like an El Nino, leading to my overall pessimism. With that said, I've been wrong about these things for sure, and I'll try to look more in-depth over the coming weeks."

 

As for the LES event Tuesday night into early Wednesday, the instability is extreme and the synoptic support is quite good. I think a band of very intense precip, with plenty of lightning, will come crashing onshore late in the evening from the Cleveland metro points east and slowly sag inland. It'll be moving but it'll be very intense. Capable of multiple inches of snow in an hour or so of time, especially in the higher terrain. Model soundings show very strong lift in the DGZ, along with cold 925mb temperatures of -2 to -4C and surface dew points a bit below freezing. I think this argues for locations more than a few miles away from Lake Erie seeing the bulk of this precip fall as snow. It'll be a quick burst with the trough. Instability remains strong into Wednesday morning, and there are hints winds get aligned out of the NNW for a few hours around sunrise, which may allow for a few narrow multi-bands to develop after a lull behind the initial trough passage and burst of snow. There will be a Huron connection somewhere in NE OH that may be a bit more organized/intense Wednesday morning. Activity should weaken more substantially and change back to rain or a mix by Wednesday afternoon. 

I think it'll be a general 1-3" deal, with up to an inch of slop near the lake but generally struggling to change to snow near the water. Accums should get as far south/west as Lorain/Medina/Wayne Counties and down into the Akron/Canton/Youngstown areas. With good synoptic support, the activity should persist well inland though it will lose some intensity as it gets farther from the lake. There may be spots where the band hangs up a little longer, or where the narrow multibands set up early Wednesday. If these aligns with the higher elevations, hi-res models all spit out upwards of 0.75" of QPF in spots. Even if that is somewhat overdone, there's enough QPF to play with to get 4 or 5" of wet snow where bands are most persistent away from the lakeshore. Hopefully enough leaves have come down to mitigate tree/power-line issues, but there may be a few. 

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NEOH

NEOH

Posted
Posted

First advisory of the season... leaves are about 90% down in this area so tree damage should be limited. 

  

..WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO
10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of
  3 to 4 inches.

* WHERE...Geauga county.

* WHEN...From 8 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Wednesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A cold front moves across the area this
  afternoon, with lake effect precipitation developing this
  evening. Precipitation may briefly begin as a rain/snow mix
  before quickly becoming all snow. The heaviest snow is expected
  between 11 PM and 3 AM when snowfall rates of up to 1"/hr will
  be possible.
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NEOH

NEOH

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, Speedskater said:

Overnight snow near Lakewood Park. I would guesstimate about 1/4 inch.  The temperature, dipped to 32°F at about 2 AM,  but at 8 AM it's up to 37°F and much of the snow has melted.

Definitely tough to accumulate near the lakeshore this time of year. Lake temps are still very "warm". 

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