CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 But it doens't matter.. that "appeal" is decent to get winter back into the NP-GL-NE regions. Could use a bit more cross-polar look, but that's what we would get from a truer -EPO. Home grown cold should be sufficient tho, seeing as we have a well-developed cryosphere on this side of the Hemi - Well you don't want it too cold or too much of a -EPO. Besides the deep troughing in a pattern like that would climatologically favor the plains which would hopefully mean East Coast storminess. Combine that with the ENSO tendency of wanting to get the STJ going and it "could" be good. But, lets get the EC ensembles on board too..and lets get this within day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Nice hit interior on Euro for the 21st Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Nice hit interior on Euro for the 21st Last time I checked, it doesn't snow with 925 temps above +2C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Last time I checked, it doesn't snow with 925 temps above +2C. Let the weenies dream for a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Nice hit interior on Euro for the 21stcrashing heights deep low in GOM .great ski area look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Let the weenies dream for a day. I hate when they do this. Verbatim it's a little snow to start, but the airmass preceding is awful. I'm sure Steve will post some snow algorithm that is completely wrong to refute my post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Let the weenies dream for a day.you would get croaked but would fret about QPF all week in that look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Let the weenies dream for a day.Now we're taking 925's verbatim on a day 9 model prog.. I've seen it all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Now we're taking 950's verbatim in a day 9 model prog.. I've seen it all Wrong again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 12, 2014 Author Share Posted December 12, 2014 Damn! Squirrels are really fat in Chicagoland! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 I hate when they do this. Verbatim it's a little snow to start, but the airmass preceding is awful. I'm sure Steve will post some snow algorithm that is completely wrong to refute my post.you are looking at inland CT I am looking at ski areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Damn! Squirrels are really fat in Chicagoland! They must have seen the GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 you are looking at inland CT I am looking at ski areas It even rains there. However, semantics at day 9 are trivial...I am just stating what it shows because one of us doesn't know how to read models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 I hate when they do this. Verbatim it's a little snow to start, but the airmass preceding is awful. I'm sure Steve will post some snow algorithm that is completely wrong to refute my post. If the system comes out a day earlier this is snow to the coast IMO....remember the Euro tends to like hanging stuff out there too long so it very well may be a day earlier....the airmass this thing can tap in SRN Canada if it does cut under the ridge and transfer is more than cold enough I think, it just needs to eject earlier than the 12Z Euro shows. If the system on the 17th blows up more that could help as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 If the system comes out a day earlier this is snow to the coast IMO....remember the Euro tends to like hanging stuff out there too long so it very well may be a day earlier....the airmass this thing can tap in SRN Canada if it does cut under the ridge and transfer is more than cold enough I think, it just needs to eject earlier than the 12Z Euro shows. If the system on the 17th blows up more that could help as well. Well the different outcomes are one thing, but the output verbatim wasn't really an interior hit. It's silly to go over details at this stage...just nice to see something modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 It even rains there. However, semantics at day 9 are trivial...I am just stating what it shows because one of us doesn't know how to read models. It's an annoying solution for the thermal handling, no doubt - but, ur right. It's moot at D9. It's going to change, duh. One thing I will say, it's an odd handling relative to all in the geopotential medium, because you don't normally see type of phasing in the 40th parallel, when you see bona fide ridging poking up from the Caribbean into the SE U.S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 you would get croaked but would fret about QPF all week in that look Oh yeah of course on the NW fringe of anything that's usually the worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Oh yeah of course on the NW fringe of anything that's usually the worry. speaking of Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Now we're taking 925's verbatim on a day 9 model prog.. I've seen it all Well you are taking the storm verbatim and then changing other aspects of the solution. I haven't seen the run yet, but I'd bet Coastalwx is right with it being warm. It's a moot point so far out, but it agree that when talking about a specific model run verbatim that we should be truthful with what it shows. Maybe that would be colder than depicted, but it shows what it shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 speaking of We are all you should know that by now haha.But in reality if you guys were always on the NW side you'd worry about QPF over p-type. We all have our stuff that is cause for concern. In SNE it's usually p-type, not QPF. Up here in the farthest area from the Atlantic in New England, p-type isn't the concern, getting precip usually is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Last time I checked, it doesn't snow with 925 temps above +2C. Its a magical place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Its a magical place If anything, this last storm showed that +2C is a real problem, haha. Large difference between 0C and +2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 I love how Kevin posts an incorrect "verbatim" solution on the op Euro 9 days out... and when corrected that the "verbatim" solution is rain... he responds with a "lol" Nice hit interior on Euro for the 21st Last time I checked, it doesn't snow with 925 temps above +2C. Now we're taking 925's verbatim on a day 9 model prog.. I've seen it all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Well you are taking the storm verbatim and then changing other aspects of the solution. I haven't seen the run yet, but I'd bet Coastalwx is right with it being warm. It's a moot point so far out, but it agree that when talking about a specific model run verbatim that we should be truthful with what it shows. Maybe that would be colder than depicted, but it shows what it shows. with a deep low pressure in Boston Harbor with the column solidly below 0 with an 850 inflow like this, yea I wouldn't worry, and no its not warm for you or anyone in the Greens, Berks at this point.at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 If anything, this last storm showed that +2C is a real problem, haha. Large difference between 0C and +2. You certainly don't have to remind me of it that's for sure............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 with a deep low pressure in Boston Harbor with the column solidly below 0 with an 850 inflow like this, yea I wouldn't worry, and no its not warm for you or anyone in the Greens, Berks at this point.at all 925mb is a blow torch though close to +4c Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
masonwoods Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 with a deep low pressure in Boston Harbor with the column solidly below 0 with an 850 inflow like this, yea I wouldn't worry, and no its not warm for you or anyone in the Greens, Berks at this point.at all Does the Euro have the 24/25 system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Does the Euro have the 24/25 system? Does not go out that far, Only goes out to hr 240 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 925mb is a blow torch though close to +4c In vt? with 530 heights? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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