Weathergun Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Interesting how that system looks very sheared to an extent on the 06Z GFS and Euro...possibly the Pac jet at work again despite the SE ridge. An ULL or spoke of the PV is swinging over SE Canada as well. That could cause more confluence, dependent on timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Temper you expectations..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Temper you expectations..... A neg EPO is exactly what you want to see with a SE ridge . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 A neg EPO is exactly what you want to see with a SE ridge . if we could keep the SE ridge weak with a stormy STJ track and a negative EPO we'd be in business especially the further north you are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Very gradient like pattern but hopefully it's more like 93/94 than 07/08. The coming period post 27/28 still looks decent and it will probably be our best chance at getting a snow event. It will be a case where a little luck and timing may go a long way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 A neg EPO is exactly what you want to see with a SE ridge . wow interesting. can you explain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 wow interesting. can you explain? If you build the heights from Alaska through Western Canada you force the cold off Asia into Canada and it will press south. A SE ridge in the absence of a Pos PNA is the only mechanism you will have to turn a SW North. . Too much ridge and the coast floods w warm air. However the euro ensembles weaken the MJO amplitude and Wana kill it in phase 5. So for me the ridge shouldn't over power. As a neg EPO delivers low level cold air into Canada it likes it to sink to the base of the trough. So you can set up a baroclinic zone in which you hope you are on the right side of . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 if we could keep the SE ridge weak with a stormy STJ track and a negative EPO we'd be in business especially the further north you are. Yeh does it set up at 195 I80 or the mass tpke. That no one can know for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 I've been tracking the GFSx on and off for days. The latest anomaly +11.1degs. over next 7 days, a degree better (less) than yesterday and finally it shows a below normal temperature, a high of 38 instead of 40, but you'll have to wait a whole week for that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Believe it or not, the 06Z GFS tries to produce a NYD's snowstorm in central Texas!, while we are being shafted up here. The snow does not remain on the ground for long as CAA sweeps northeast. Some other facts (truths) about cold season so far: Lowest temp. 22 Nov. 19 this month so far 24 Dec. 08 --- may just be able to beat these during last 48hrs. of the month/year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 12z 4k NAM has surface wind gusts to 55kts over coastal NJ and the south shore of LI late tomorrow night. Could be very windy for a period of time. The model also surges PWAT's to >1.75" in spots and even gets some scattered CAPE up to 250 J/KG overnight. Would not be shocked to see the resemblence of a low topped squal line cross the area early Christmas morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Upton for next week FOR NOW GOING WITH CHANCE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MONDAY TO REFLECT POTENTIAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE S...WITH MAINLY SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS N ZONES...AND RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS S ZONES. STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT TIMING/STRENGTH/TRACK AND NUMBER OF THESE WAVES. FOR NOW BEST TO CHARACTERIZE WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED...WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOW THAN RAIN AT MOST LOCATIONS...IF ANY THING FALLS AT ALL. GIVEN LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY...IT IS TO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON WHAT...IF ANY IMPACT THERE WILL BE FROM THESE POTENTIALLY MULTIPLE COASTAL LOWS PASSING TO THE South Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Upton for next week I agree . I think there are 2 systems . They are snow or no . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 12z GFS is a lot weaker and further north with the Pacific jet this weekend. Not sure how much of a difference that will make but if true it would be a signficant change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 The changes at H5 on the GFS for a 120hr forecast are remarkable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 If you build the heights from Alaska through Western Canada you force the cold off Asia into Canada and it will press south. A SE ridge in the absence of a Pos PNA is the only mechanism you will have to turn a SW North. . Too much ridge and the coast floods w warm air. However the euro ensembles weaken the MJO amplitude and Wana kill it in phase 5. So for me the ridge shouldn't over power. As a neg EPO delivers low level cold air into Canada it likes it to sink to the base of the trough. So you can set up a baroclinic zone in which you hope you are on the right side of . Yes, and like Coastal alluded to in the NE thread, a +NAO isn't a death sentence in this case since the PV is on our side of the globe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Yes, and like Coastal alluded to in the NE thread, a +NAO isn't a death sentence in this case since the PV is on our side of the globe. Unfortunately, the dividing line can set up right over the area or even a bit to the north in a +NAO, depending on its orientation and strength of the SE Ridge. Waterbury is much better than Brooklyn in many cases... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Big changes regarding the Pacific jet on the 12z PGFS as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Old gfs shears out the first wave on the 29th...gives dca accumulating snowfall... The gefs look promising last night with not breaking down the epo ridge in the long range...euro ens was not that bad either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Old gfs shears out the first wave on the 29th...gives dca accumulating snowfall... The gefs look promising last night with not breaking down the epo ridge in the long range...euro ens was not that bad either Para is coming in further north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Para is coming in further north Se ridge flexes its muscles on the para...rain from nyc-south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Para is coming in further north It's also getting sheared out and it looks warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 It's also getting sheared out and it looks warm. Still better than the GFS. We can work with this a week out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Still better than the GFS. We can work with this a week out. It's not a bad run if you live north of 80 and west of 287 but you're also fighting subsidence on the northern edge as well. You would go from several inches in Sussex County NJ to basicailly nothing in portions of NW Orange and Sullivan Counties, the cutoff probably ends up sharper than what the GFS shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 The take away here . There are 2 systems over the next 9 days to watch . 1 or both may work for most of the area . Sort the details later . The SE ridge will turn the SW`s North and then it`s matter how much low level cold air can drill into the coastal plain as a result of the NEG EPO . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Not a bad airmass to our north to work with either...we have that going for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Is it just me or did the longrange get really snowy/cold all of a sudden...GFS looks really good once to next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Is it just me or did the longrange get really snowy/cold all of a sudden...GFS looks really good once to next weekend It did but the GFS still has a cold bias in the long range so we may not see the cold as far south as it shows. I don't know what to believe right now...as a whole the Euro ENS seem to be edging towards the GFS idea the last couple of runs. I still think we don't know where we're headed til 1/10 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Unfortunately, the dividing line can set up right over the area or even a bit to the north in a +NAO, depending on its orientation and strength of the SE Ridge. Waterbury is much better than Brooklyn in many cases... Touche. The devil is in the details, of course. I was just pointing out that you can get yourself in trouble by just looking at some bar graph of indices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 23, 2014 Share Posted December 23, 2014 Euro has the Pv over the Midwest...Se ridge pumps for the 29th...pretty much a rain event up and down the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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