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December Forecast Discussion


REDMK6GLI

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wow interesting.  can you explain?

If you build the heights from Alaska through Western Canada you force the cold off Asia into Canada and it will press south.

A SE ridge in the absence of a Pos PNA is the only mechanism you will have to turn a SW North. . Too much ridge and the coast floods w warm air. However the euro ensembles weaken the MJO amplitude and Wana kill it in phase 5. So for me the ridge shouldn't over power.

As a neg EPO delivers low level cold air into Canada it likes it to sink to the base of the trough.

So you can set up a baroclinic zone in which you hope you are on the right side of .

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I've been tracking the GFSx on and off for days.   The latest anomaly +11.1degs. over next 7 days, a degree better (less) than yesterday and finally it shows a below normal temperature, a high of 38 instead of 40, but you'll have to wait a whole week for that!

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Believe it or not, the  06Z GFS tries to produce a NYD's snowstorm in central Texas!, while we are being shafted up here.   The snow does not remain on the ground for long as CAA sweeps northeast.

 

Some other facts (truths) about cold season so far:    Lowest temp.   22    Nov.  19

                                                                       this month so far       24     Dec.  08 --- may just be able to beat these during last 48hrs. of the month/year.

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12z 4k NAM has surface wind gusts to 55kts over coastal NJ and the south shore of LI late tomorrow night. Could be very windy for a period of time. The model also surges PWAT's to >1.75" in spots and even gets some scattered CAPE up to 250 J/KG overnight. Would not be shocked to see the resemblence of a low topped squal line cross the area early Christmas morning.

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Upton for next week

 

 

FOR NOW GOING WITH CHANCE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MONDAY TO REFLECT POTENTIAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE S...WITH MAINLY SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS N ZONES...AND RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS S ZONES. STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT TIMING/STRENGTH/TRACK AND NUMBER OF THESE WAVES. FOR NOW BEST TO CHARACTERIZE WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED...WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOW THAN RAIN AT MOST LOCATIONS...IF ANY THING FALLS AT ALL. GIVEN LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY...IT IS TO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON WHAT...IF ANY IMPACT THERE WILL BE FROM THESE POTENTIALLY MULTIPLE COASTAL LOWS PASSING TO THE South
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If you build the heights from Alaska through Western Canada you force the cold off Asia into Canada and it will press south.

A SE ridge in the absence of a Pos PNA is the only mechanism you will have to turn a SW North. . Too much ridge and the coast floods w warm air. However the euro ensembles weaken the MJO amplitude and Wana kill it in phase 5. So for me the ridge shouldn't over power.

As a neg EPO delivers low level cold air into Canada it likes it to sink to the base of the trough.

So you can set up a baroclinic zone in which you hope you are on the right side of .

 

Yes, and like Coastal alluded to in the NE thread, a +NAO isn't a death sentence in this case since the PV is on our side of the globe.

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Yes, and like Coastal alluded to in the NE thread, a +NAO isn't a death sentence in this case since the PV is on our side of the globe.

 

Unfortunately, the dividing line can set up right over the area or even a bit to the north in a +NAO, depending on its orientation and strength of the SE Ridge.  Waterbury is much better than Brooklyn in many cases...

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Still better than the GFS. We can work with this a week out.

It's not a bad run if you live north of 80 and west of 287 but you're also fighting subsidence on the northern edge as well. You would go from several inches in Sussex County NJ to basicailly nothing in portions of NW Orange and Sullivan Counties, the cutoff probably ends up sharper than what the GFS shows.

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The take away here . There are 2 systems over the next 9 days to watch . 1 or both may work for most of the area . Sort the details later .

The SE ridge will turn the SW`s North and then it`s matter how much low level cold air can drill into the coastal plain as a result of the NEG EPO . 

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Is it just me or did the longrange get really snowy/cold all of a sudden...GFS looks really good once to next weekend

 

It did but the GFS still has a cold bias in the long range so we may not see the cold as far south as it shows.  I don't know what to believe right now...as a whole the Euro ENS seem to be edging towards the GFS idea the last couple of runs.  I still think we don't know where we're headed til 1/10 or so.

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Unfortunately, the dividing line can set up right over the area or even a bit to the north in a +NAO, depending on its orientation and strength of the SE Ridge.  Waterbury is much better than Brooklyn in many cases...

Touche. The devil is in the details, of course. I was just pointing out that you can get yourself in trouble by just looking at some bar graph of indices.

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