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Wednesday into Turkey Day Storm

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ECM didn't really cool down, slightly east low placement yet expanded precipitation field to the NW thus better for those deeper in interior PA. Only small changes with snow amounts upped in Berks and Lehigh and trimmed 1-2" in lower portions of SEPA.

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Excellent, held serve on the QPF and cooled down slightly. Similar to the NAM/RGEM, but not quite as robust. Great for I-95 and NW.

 

From the maps I've seen the gradient between good snows and no snows is so extremely tight.  My location just east of NE philly looks to in good shape but go like 10 miles SE and it's a different story...

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000
FXUS61 KPHI 250534
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1234 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

 

**WINTER STORM/EVENT OF WET SNOW AT HAND E PA AND NW NJ**

500 MB: THE LEAD SHORT WAVE THAT PRODUCES OUR WINTER STORM WILL
BE MOVING EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST TUESDAY EVENING THEN UP
THE EAST COAST LATE WEDNESDAY TO NEW ENGLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING.
IT PASSES THROUGH NJ AS AN INTENSIFYING 200M 12 HR 500MB HFC NEAR
06Z THURSDAY.

 

THE STORM...

OUR RECOMMENDATION: TO REACH YOUR HOLIDAY DESTINATION ON TIME WITH
PROBABLY A MINIMUM OF WEATHER RELATED TRAVEL DELAYS...AND ESPECIALLY
TRAVELING WEST OF I-95 INTO NORTHWEST NJ...EASTERN PA...TRAVEL SHOULD
BE COMPLETED AT THE LATEST...BY 10 AM WEDNESDAY.

NORMALLY THIS STORM WOULDN`T HAVE GARNERED SO MUCH LEAD TIME ATTENTION
BUT WE RESPONDED TO THE THE HEIGHTENED PUBLIC INTEREST ON WHAT IS
USUALLY THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAYS OF THE YEAR.

THE WATCH WAS EXPANDED TO JUST NW OF I-95 IN THE 330 PM FORECAST.

ITS POSSIBLE THAT THE SNOW AMOUNTS NEAR AND EAST OF I95 ARE A BIT
TOO LOW AND THAT THE WATCH MIGHT HAVE NEEDED A SLIGHT SEWD EXTENSION
INTO NE MD AND N DE. DEPENDS HOW FAST RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW THERE.

 

WEDNESDAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY EVENING...

THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON EVENING COMMUTE SHOULD BE PROBLEMATIC...ESPECIALLY
HILLS AND OVER THE KITTATINNY RIDGE IN NW NJ-POCONOS OF NE PA.

WEST OF I-95...MAINLY WHERE SOME BANDING AND ASSOCIATED SNOWFALL RATE
ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SE EDGE OF THE COMMA HEAD (THERMAL
AXIS OF PIVA AND FGEN). ACCUMULATION HERE MAY BE MORE ON THE ORDER
OF 12 TO 1? BANDING COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED GREATER THAN 10 INCH
AMOUNTS IN THE POCONOS AND NORTHERN SUSSEX COUNTY NJ.

I-95 CORRIDOR RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO WET SNOW DURING
MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON THEN REMAINING AS SNOW BEFORE ENDING
DURING WEDNESDAY EVENING. WHILE QPF IS GREATER HERE...SNOWFALL
SHOULD BE NOT BE GREATER THAN 10 TO 1 RATIO. SLOPPY WET SNOW THAT
COULD CLING TO TREES AND WIRES AND OBSCURE ROAD SIGNS DURING THE
AFTERNOON-EVENING IN A 32-33F SURFACE TEMPERATURE ENVIRONMENT. IF
4 TO 6 INCHES OF WET SNOW WERE TO ACCUMULATE ON BRANCHES/WIRES...THE
RISK OF BROKEN TREE LIMBS SHOULD INCREASE CONSIDERABLY. TOTALS UNKNOWN
BUT SUSPECT MAINLY 1 TO 5 INCH AMOUNTS.

ADDED A WATCH TO PHILADELPHIA AT THE LAST MINUTE JUST BEFORE 330
PM DUE TO AUTOMATED PHRASING FROM OUR FORECAST GRIDS.

COAST: RAIN POSSIBLY ENDING AS SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING. TOTALS NIL TO
2 INCHES? NO ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE DAY AS PER THE WATER TEMPERATURE
STILL IN THE MID 50S, THE ONSHORE FLOW AND PROXIMITY OF THE WARMING
ALOFT NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND EAST OF THE VORT PATH SHOULD KEEP
THEM WELL ABOVE FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE CAVEAT TO ALL OF
THIS IS THAT THE LOCATION OF THE RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION AND EVEN
SNOW RATIOS IS VERY MUCH DEPENDENT ON THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE.
THERE IS STILL MODEL DISAGREEMENT, SO SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN
FROM I95 EASTWARD REMAIN FAR FROM CERTAIN.

THE COAST SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW OR FLURRIES WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE
ENDING WHEN A SLIGHT ACCUMULATION COULD OCCUR.

PRECIPITATION EVERYWHERE MODERATE TO HEAVY FOR A TIME DURING THE
DAY WITH TAIL END SNOW IN EASTERN PA AND NW NJ POSSIBLY STILL
MODERATE DURING THE EVENING.

NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND GUST 15-25 MPH I95 EASTWARD.

RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL IS FORECAST FOR KABE (VULNERABLE RECORD OF
1.7 INCHES) AND DITTO AT KILG WHERE THE VULNERABLE DAILY RECORD IS
0.1 INCHES.


AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...JUST A SMATTERING OF FLURRIES AND
VARIABLE CLOUDINESS WITH LIGHT WIND AND TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING.

 

DRAG/FRANCK

 

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You don't have to go far from PHL for it to be mainly heavy wet snow... but yeah, at PHL proper, a lot is rain or white rain.

Mid levels look warm...could be a death band of sleet between the transition zone.

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You don't have to go far from PHL for it to be mainly heavy wet snow... but yeah, at PHL proper, a lot is rain or white rain.

 

Upper Bucks/Mont county and especially Allentown N and W probably will get a nice thump...so yeah not that far away.

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Looks similar to last years storm the day after the super bowl but with more rain at the beginning and a little less snow in eastern areas. Good snow for far N+W. Enough for a white thanksgiving on grass near I95.

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The total snow accumulation map from Eurowx.com shows 0-3" snow for all of NJ except Warren and Sussex counties where it is up to 5". Philly would be about an inch. Their maps look pretty realistic to me. This is from the 0Z Euro run. Sorry I don't know how to post images.

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Q-town I would think the bust potential is very high with this one on either side. Whoever sits under that death band is gonna get a really good thump and could bust low. Those in subsidence on either side where it struggles to freeze could also bust too high with totals.

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Does anyone have a linjk to the p-type maps off the RGEM? I lost the link...

 

Does anyone think that sleet may be an underrated p-type here? 

Possibly on the sleet. The NAM closes off a 700mb low over Delaware then tracks it inland which is the kiss of death. So that warm tongue will certainly spell sleet and a lot of it for some folks imho. Not sure where that zone lies just yet.

 

nam_namer_033_700_rh_ht.gif

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Looking at my location, the sounding for the 12Z NAM show SFC and 1000mb temps at 0.8 and 0.2C with all other layers below freezing.  I think I am looking good.

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GFS is all rain for philly too according to snowmaps

Yeah I'm hearing the same, can't access models from my phone, but I'm hearing it's way west, doesn't even look like the LV gets much accumulation.

But then there's the NAM lol 3b3cc61132ddd0c26255c9d5b3e43b5b.jpg

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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