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Mitchel Volk

Possible NYC snow Wed Night or Thursday

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It's dependent on the track of the mid-level cyclones. The UKMET for example tracks the 850mb low up the NJ coast and over the city, so the city East torches.

oh ok thank you

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I had a feeling the Euro was going to shift east after seeing all of the gefs and ggem ensembles near the bm

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How does that mean nothing, the piece of energy is the key to the whole setup, the stronger that is, the more east/weaker solution, which is what we want to get snow, and not mostly rain.

and clearly as weve gotten closer since last nights runs the models have figured out its gunna be stronger...it would make zero sense for them to figure that out  this close to then only lose that idea again...

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oh ok thank you

you might want to take it easy on the sarcastic replies on this board. these people are extremely knowledgeable and the board doesnt tolerate newbies that bring sarcasm and insulting someones intelligence. just an FYI for you.. 

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Your location is pretty awful for backend snows. They are far more commonplace to the N&W of NYC just based on storm structur climo/geography, etc.

Furthermore, there is a distinction here. I'm not sure if the definitions are cut and dry, but i think of one category as describing what happens when the surface low passes to your west (or overhead), you go to rain then dryslot, and then snow comes back in on the back side. I agree, that phenomenon is rare, especially for your locale.

But, another case is when a storm passes to your south and east but the winds don't back to the north until it passes your longitude. This can mean sleet or rain on the front end over to heavy snow on the back side of the low. That is actually fairly commonplace, IMO.

That's what we had here during feb 13 and we finished with 14". I don't think that's the case here.

With the euro now in the good camp for the coast as far as track and flow it's going to come down to rates.

If we get some 30 plus DBZ type stuff after sunset Wednesday with a nice north flow it's going to accumulate even at the coast

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Admittedly with t day coming I'vebeen out of the loop here but my one big question is where is the surface cold air source and how long does it take to get here? certainly watch the dews and wet bulbs in this setup

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sarcastic becaused i thanked him for explaning something i didnt understand...really...maybe u get ur intelligence level up to see i wasnt being sarcastic

Wow.. welcome to this board.. have a feeling you wont be here long.. i actually misquoted you.. my reply was towards your repsonse to Teleconnect snow instead.. enjoy your day.. smh...

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Looks like a fair number of SREF members are tucked into the NJ coast with a few eastern outliers skewing the mean.

 

 

Yeah, deffinetly a lean to the west.  Almost like the UKIE. 

sref_namer_057_mslp.gif

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Mt holly ....

THE WATCH WILL BE EXPANDED SOUTHWARD TO JUST NW OF I-95 IN THE 330 PM.
ANY FURTHER CHANGE AFTER THIS WRITING IS RELATED TO A SUBSTANTIAL
CHANGE IN THE EVENTUAL 12Z ECMWF RECEIPT.

 

WEST OF I-95...MAINLY WHERE SOME BANDING AND ASSOCIATED SNOWFALL
RATE ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED ALONG THE SE EDGE OF THE COMMA HEAD (THERMAL
AXIS OF PIVA AND FGEN). ACCUMULATION HERE MAY BE MORE ON THE ORDER
OF 12 TO 1? FIVE PLUS TOTALS...ESPECIALLY ELEVATIONS WHERE 10
INCHES MAY ACCUMULATE ABOVE 1000 FT (POCONOS AND SUSSEX COUNTY NJ).

I-95 CORRIDOR RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO WET SNOW AT TIMES OR
POSSIBLY REMAINING AS SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE QPF IS
GREATER HERE...ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE NOT BE GREATER THAN 10 TO
1 RATIO. SLOPPY WET SNOW THAT COULD CLING TO TREES AND WIRES AND
OBSCURE ROAD SIGNS DURING THE AFTERNOON EVENING IN A 32-33F SURFACE
TEMPERATURE ENVIRONMENT. IF 6 INCHES OF WET SNOW WERE TO OCCUR...THE
RISK OF BROKEN TREE LIMBS SHOULD INCREASE CONSIDERABLY BUT ONLY
WHERE 6 INCHES OCCURS. TOTALS UNKNOWN BUT SUSPECT 0.5 TO 4 INCH
AMOUNTS. FINE LINE ON WHERE IT WILL SNOW BUT TOO MUCH INFO ATTM TO
WARRANT A WATCH PER INTERNAL COLLABORATION.

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That might be enough to expand the watches one more tier of counties south and east.

 

For now, looks like Upton updated the verbiage in its HWO.  Extent of watch area looks like it remained the same.

 

"DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS IN HOW CLOSE TO THE

REGION THIS STORM WILL TRACK. A COMBINATION OF SNOW...RAIN...AND

WIND ARE LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM.

ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE EXACT SNOW AND RAIN

AMOUNTS...THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF 6 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW

WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR ALL BUT THE TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND. CONTINUE

TO MONITOR NWS FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST ON POTENTIAL STORM RELATED

HAZARDS AND IMPACTS DURING THE BUSY MIDWEEK HOLIDAY TRAVEL PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NYZ080&warncounty=NYC103&firewxzone=NYZ080&local_place1=Wyandanch NY&product1=Special+Weather+Statement&lat=40.74431&lon=-73.36458#.VHOK-Z0o6tU

 

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TO: ALL EASTERN REGION WFOS AND RFCS

FROM: ERH

WITH THE APPROACHING HIGH IMPACT STORM SYSTEM IN THE MID ATLANTIC

AND NORTHEAST THIS WEEK... WE ARE SCHEDULING A COLLABORATION CALL

TODAY WITH WPC AND OUR OFFICES TO ENSURE CONSISTENCY IN OUR

FORECASTS. THE CALL WILL BE AT NOON EASTERN. DETAILS WILL FOLLOW VIA

NIMNAT MESSAGE LATER THIS MORNING.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=ERH&product=ADM&format=CI&version=3&glossary=0

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Euro ensemble mean tracks from OBX to the benchmark. Pretty classic track.

Looks like allot of Long Island people are going to ask for their towels back.

It's still going to be a sloppy storm outside of areas under 800'.

What I think will be the big surprise is where ever the best banding and highest rates setup could eek out the hugest totals despite if it's on the coast.just going with the trend the last few years some place like colts neck in the Monmouth snow mountains could be a surprise winner

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1.2 inches of liquid back into NNJ

 

KNYC is safe with that look .

that's a classic look indeed. I'd be getting excited if I lived 20 miles n&w of the big cities. 

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Got rid of a lot of those far western members...strong agreement and cluster near B/M track now with the EURO

 

 

+1... I am in Long Hill Twp (southern tip of Morris County)... with yesterday Euro we were borderline of 2 inches or 6+ probably mixing issues.

 

With the move the Euro went, we look solid as suburbs outside of NYC.. I think we definitely based on Euro track now score 6+.

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Looks like I am going to be doing some cheerleading for you guys on this one. Just too early in the season to count on big snows this far out east. 

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that's a classic look indeed. I'd be getting excited if I lived 20 miles n&w of the big cities. 

West of JFK and the GSP may fit warning criteria .  At  only 5 to 1  Minus 2  at 850`s  33- 34 BL with 32 DP on a NE wind may support warning snow

 

Maybe as far east as the Wantagh on Long Island .  

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