Chicago WX Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 What strength did the Nino peak at (or estimated to have peaked at)? Weak or very low end moderate at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 12z GEFS pretty much stinks right up to mid-December for the subforum. Not a torch, but definitely nothing to get excited about either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 Weak or very low end moderate at best. http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/catalog/climind/TNI_N34/index.html#Sec5 This source suggests it was a high end moderate/low end strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/catalog/climind/TNI_N34/index.html#Sec5 This source suggests it was a high end moderate/low end strong. Well, I was going off this site. ftp://ftp.atmos.washington.edu/mantua/pnw_impacts/INDICES/nino34.long.latest MEI too: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei.ext/table.ext.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 warm then an east coast pattern…zzzzzzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 warm then an east coast pattern…zzzzzzz I'd actually rather be where we are when things flip. The Atlantic looks like it's going to be hostile for a while and anything there would be a serious thread the needle as long as that's the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 28, 2014 Share Posted November 28, 2014 warm then an east coast pattern…zzzzzzz More storm mode? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 Models trending colder and colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 the pac jet coming off asia has looked like ragged garbage for awhile...and the models show it staying a mess for the next week or so. Hopefully it can get cleaned up and get some legs under it as we head towards mid month and beyond...I expect it to do so fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 zzzzzzzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 zzzzzzzz Yup, lame until further notice. Even when the cool down comes (and it may be later than a lot are expecting), we've been locked in a dry pattern since the beginning of October that doesn't look like it's going anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 zzzzzzzz Yup, lame until further notice. Even when the cool down comes (and it may be later than a lot are expecting), we've been locked in a dry pattern since the beginning of October that doesn't look like it's going anywhere. Punt until Christmas. Call looking solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 Yup, lame until further notice. Even when the cool down comes (and it may be later than a lot are expecting), we've been locked in a dry pattern since the beginning of October that doesn't look like it's going anywhere. El Nino FTL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 Call looking solid. El Nino FTL. I wonder how good an analog 2002-03 (mod. El Nino) is? So far there's a bit of a mirror job going on. Cold shot with snow in mid-November followed by a prolonged "relaxing" starting in late November. Really didn't recover until the pre-Christmas storm but from then on out we rocked and rolled.* * although I recall the western part of the subforum never really got into a wintry groove that winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 Yup, lame until further notice. Even when the cool down comes (and it may be later than a lot are expecting), we've been locked in a dry pattern since the beginning of October that doesn't look like it's going anywhere. In all seriousness, it hasn't been that dry down this way. Aug. and Sept. were way above normal and Oct. and Nov. are right at normal. FWA August________6.04" +2.40" Sept._________4.90" +2.10" Oct.__________2.78" -0.06" Nov. (thru 29th)_3.05" +0.17" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 Quite frankly, I'm not sure Oct-Nov precipitation means a ton for winter. Relatively small sample size, but here are the CONUS precipitation departure maps for Oct-Nov and the following Dec-Feb going back to 2007. At times there's a match, at other times it's a complete flip. Sorry, lots of images coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 Dry doesn't mean much to me unless we are relying on cutters or hookers for qpf...nw flow, while dryer in nature, still provides enough qpf for high ratios to do some magic. Just not as "exciting"...canadian prairies looking pretty good in the snowfall department considering the date Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 Looking over the 0z ensembles for the next 2 weeks, it doesn't look completely void of action by any means. But southern parts of the sub-forum would do best in the modeled pattern. Of course when I say best, most if not all of it will be rain. As for cold and snow prospects, it's pretty ugly through mid-month for most. Doesn't mean something can't sneak through, but I wouldn't bet on it. I think patience may be warranted this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 BUF NWS seems bored. ALL IN ALL...THIS PERIOD APPEARS TO BE RELATIVELY UNEVENTFUL WITH NOSIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND NO BIG TEMPERATURE EXTREMES...AS IS TYPICALWHEN A FLAT PACIFIC-BASED FLOW DOMINATES THE CONUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 Call looking solid. Punt...zzzzz...etc...it wouldnt be November without those annual calls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 Quite frankly, I'm not sure Oct-Nov precipitation means a ton for winter. Relatively small sample size, but here are the CONUS precipitation departure maps for Oct-Nov and the following Dec-Feb going back to 2007. At times there's a match, at other times it's a complete flip. Sorry, lots of images coming up. Wow...excellent idea to post this Tim. I didnt realize how often we were dry in the Fall months leading to a wet winter! And two of my favorite winters had the SE MI sector listed as "dry" (2010-11 with 69.1") and "normal (2013-14 with 96.2"). We have actually seen that in many outlooks this winter...calling for a cold winter with below normal precip but normal to above normal snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 Looking over the 0z ensembles for the next 2 weeks, it doesn't look completely void of action by any means. But southern parts of the sub-forum would do best in the modeled pattern. Of course when I say best, most if not all of it will be rain. As for cold and snow prospects, it's pretty ugly through mid-month for most. Doesn't mean something can't sneak through, but I wouldn't bet on it. I think patience may be warranted this winter. Im with Gilbert....NW flow can still give some snow. Obviously Id prefer big storms as everyone would, but cold with some snow is better than no snow at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 Hey SSC I bet you wish you were still living in YEG. Nice 12-16'' snowfall there yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 GFS look much colder today. Perhaps a new trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 Hey SSC I bet you wish you were still living in YEG. Nice 12-16'' snowfall there yesterday Could snow 3' there and I wouldn't care. Glad to be home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 NAEFS continues to paint above normal temps across the area for 2nd week of December... nothing tropical, but i can handle 30fs or 20fs... ice fishermen will love it because we should be able to hold onto most of the pocket ice (main channel is opening back up quickly). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted November 30, 2014 Share Posted November 30, 2014 NAEFS continues to paint above normal temps across the area for 2nd week of December... nothing tropical, but i can handle 30fs or 20fs... ice fishermen will love it because we should be able to hold onto most of the pocket ice (main channel is opening back up quickly). FWIW, it was noted in the New England forum that Judah Cohen's work did show a noted warm bias in the first half of Dec before eastern CONUS turned consistently cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 I wonder how good an analog 2002-03 (mod. El Nino) is? So far there's a bit of a mirror job going on. Cold shot with snow in mid-November followed by a prolonged "relaxing" starting in late November. Really didn't recover until the pre-Christmas storm but from then on out we rocked and rolled.* * although I recall the western part of the subforum never really got into a wintry groove that winter. 2002-03 is one of the top analogs overall, especially considering it had a pretty strong +PDO as well. SST wise, the Atlantic shows some strong similarities. The Pacific is warmer in the East this year at this time than 2002, but it was also colder in the north-central/northwest in 2002. The Nino was also a bit more advanced at this point in 2002. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 Looking over the 0z ensembles for the next 2 weeks, it doesn't look completely void of action by any means. But southern parts of the sub-forum would do best in the modeled pattern. Of course when I say best, most if not all of it will be rain. As for cold and snow prospects, it's pretty ugly through mid-month for most. Doesn't mean something can't sneak through, but I wouldn't bet on it. I think patience may be warranted this winter. We have a strong GOA system within the 7 day range along with an east asia trough connection. The models aren't going to be doing so well for the second week of December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 1, 2014 Share Posted December 1, 2014 FWIW, it was noted in the New England forum that Judah Cohen's work did show a noted warm bias in the first half of Dec before eastern CONUS turned consistently cold. Sounds like 1855-56 is an analog. Mild Dec until the Solstace then a frigidly cold winter right through March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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