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November Banter

jburns

By jburns,
in Southeastern States

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superjames1992

superjames1992

Posted
Posted

 Complete list of major 32 ATL SN/IP caused by Miller A's: estimate of lowest SLP while in GoM/near Gulf coast (other 7 weren't Miller A)(sub 1000 bolded)

 

2/12-13/14: 1003

1/9-10/11: 1008

2/12/10: 997

1/2-3/02: 1007

3/13/93: 976

1/18/92: 1011

1/7/88: 1018

1/22/87: 998

3/24/83: 1002

1/12-13/82: 1007

2/17-18/79: 1018

3/11/1960 1011

2/15/1958 1001

2/26/1952 1004

3/2/1942 1002

1/23/1940 1006

1/29-30/1936 1009

3/14/1924 1000

12/11-13/1917 1020

1/28/1904 1017

2/23/1901 1012

2/11-12/1899 1017

2/15-16/1895 1017

2/11-12/1895 1012

12/24-5/1894 1020 (barely discernible)

1/18-19/1893 1008

12/3-6/1886 1013

2/12-15/1885 1005

1/23/1885 1003

1/7-8/1884 1010

12/29/1880 1009

1/1/1877 1003

 

I didn't realize February 2010 was that strong.

 

January 1987 was a great one for inland areas, too.  Of course, like all strong storms, it did cause issues for places closer to the coast, as this area shows.  I'm guessing even I-85 might have done some mixing given the lower totals here ("only" 10-11").

 

Here's a map for NC.

 

accum.19870123.gif

 

GSO gets 11" while RDU gets a trace.  Gotta love that 10" to T cutoff in Chatham County.  :yikes:

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted

I didn't realize February 2010 was that strong.

January 1987 was a great one for inland areas, too. Of course, like all strong storms, it did cause issues for places closer to the coast, as this area shows. I'm guessing even I-85 might have done some mixing given the lower totals here ("only" 10-11").

Here's a map for NC.

accum.19870123.gif

GSO gets 11" while RDU gets a trace. Gotta love that 10" to T cutoff in Chatham County. :yikes:

I was in Winston during the 80's. If that happened now you would have to send a search party. Missing 10" for a trace by 15 miles!

Edit: looked at more analogs today, 86/87, 02/03 and 03/04 really match up well with Dec currently being modeled.

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JoshM

JoshM

Posted
Posted

I just have the regular DVD Ex edition. It's awesome. I need to get a Blu Ray though.

Running time

  • 558 minutes

    (theatrical edition)

  • 681 minutes

    (extended edition)

  • 726 minutes

    (extended Blu-ray edition)

 

Back on weather, I'll give that GA Weather guy credit, he does know a decent amount, can't even call him a weenie. A wishful thinker perhaps :)

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

Larry,

It seems pretty clear ATL benefits more from weak sliders than amped up storms. Very nice info Larry. Thank you.

1) You're welcome. I'm glad you asked me about this because it got me to make this list, which was fun. I thought about it some more. I think that one of the reasons there are a good number of the real weak ones (say, weaker than 1010) is that there are often pretty strong highs to the north (often near 1030 or higher) that produce CAD which can easily bring pressures up to the 1025 vicinity all of the way into N GA. So, if the high wedges down to GA at, say, 1025, and the Miller A not too far below is at, say, 1015, that's still a pretty good gradient. So, in that way, perhaps a 1015 low when there's strong CAD isn't as weak as it at sounds. Maybe that allows it to sort of act like a moderate low in a way. Regardless, not having many strong lows makes sense for ATL to keep there from being too much WAA.

2) Whereas I knew the 93 storm was far and away the strongest GoM winter storm on record, I was a bit surprised there was a 21 mb gap down to the next strongest. I thought that maybe I'd find one near, say, 990. This really shows how anomalous was that one. Because of the 21 mb gap, I wouldn't be shocked if it was a once in a couple hundred year GOM winter storm.

3) Now I know your sub 1000 gut feel prediction is very bold. If you get this, huge kudos would be in order.

4) Note that the three strongest have been only since 1987 though 4th and beyond are only slightly weaker. I kind of wonder if the chances of another sub 1000 could be enhanced a little due to a warmer globe/GOM. Strong storms probably have more to do with contrast of warm GOM and intensity of cold air than anything else. Maybe that contrast is up slightly with the globe about 1C warmer vs 100 or so years ago?

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

There were only 3 storms in that list from December , maybe all hope is not lost if we torch December !? :)

Dec. definitely hasn't been exactly stellar vs other months. However, there was one Dec. major that wasn't a Miller A that didn't make this list. It came up north from in or near the Caribbean! Also, this excludes the many nonmajor SN/IP's. In addition, none of the mainly ZR storms are included here. Finally, these are others that were major in other areas but not in ATL.

Regardless, ATL is so overdue for a big Dec SN as it has been a whopping 97 years!

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NCSNOW

NCSNOW

Posted
Posted

Hiked in 3 inch plus snow to nag the ole tree today. The pics I have on my phone look like a coors beer commercial. We where in Allegheny county, north of sparta a few miles. Everything was covered, but the roads. If you have work and get to live up there you are truly blessed. We have never trampled through the snow while choosing and cutting our tree. Been doing this for atleast 15 yrs on black Friday and today was a first.

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

Major winter storms ATL (incl. ZR) by decade:

2010's to date: 3
2000's: 6
1990's: 2
1980's: 4
1970's: 4
1960's: 7
1950's: 2
1940's: 7
1930's: 5
1920's: 3
1910's: 3
1900's: 7
1890's: 7
1880's: 7

Avg. per decade: 5

I'm expecting at least one this winter, which would bring decade to date up to at least 4. So, the 2010's so far are going at a rate that could end up making it another active decade, which would be just after the active 2000's. We'll see. Look how active were the 1880's-1900's. Back then, there also was a relatively weak sun. Could there be a connection? I have no idea, but the weenie in me hopes that is the case. ;)

In reality, the 1880's-1900's was a cold period as was the 1960's. So, that probably explains their high activity. The 1990's, 1950's, 1920's, and 1910's were mild, which explains their low level of major storms.

The 2000's were mild overall but still had high activity. The 1940's weren't cold overall (near normal) but still had a lot. The 1930's were quite warm but still had average major storm activity. The main reason is that just one winter contributed to 3 of the 5. That was 1935-6, a very cold winter.

 

So, the 2000's, 1940's, and 1930's outdid themselves in a way.

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted

Major winter storms ATL (incl. ZR) by decade:

2010's to date: 3

2000's: 6

1990's: 2

1980's: 4

1970's: 4

1960's: 7

1950's: 2

1940's: 7

1930's: 5

1920's: 3

1910's: 3

1900's: 7

1890's: 7

1880's: 7

Avg. per decade: 5

I'm expecting at least one this winter, which would bring decade to date up to at least 4. So, the 2010's so far are going at a rate that could end up making it another active decade, which would be just after the active 2000's. We'll see. Look how active were the 1880's-1900's. Back then, there also was a relatively weak sun. Could there be a connection? I have no idea, but the weenie in me hopes that is the case. ;)

In reality, the 1880's-1900's was a cold period as was the 1960's. So, that probably explains their high activity. The 1990's, 1950's, 1920's, and 1910's were mild, which explains their low level of major storms.

The 1940's weren't cold overall but still had a lot.

 

What do you consider major for ATL?  

 

For RDU I plotted our 30 year running seasonal snowfall average over the past 130 years, which currently is at it's all time low (5.5").  When looking at the trends they typically last 25-30 years.  We peaked at 8.7" in 1982 so we should be completing a 30 year downturn.  We should start ticking up the next 30 years and I would expect us to peak at just over 8.5"...

post-2311-0-07595700-1417276481_thumb.pn

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

What do you consider major for ATL?  

 

For RDU I plotted our 30 year running seasonal snowfall average over the past 130 years, which currently is at it's all time low (5.5").  When looking at the trends they typically last 25-30 years.  We peaked at 8.7" in 1982 so we should be completing a 30 year downturn.  We should start ticking up the next 30 years and I would expect us to peak at just over 8.5"...

 

Pack, don't forget major ZR's.

 

For individual storms not seasonal:

SN: 3.5"+

IP: 1.5"+

ZR: widespread outages (mainly 0.75"+ of ZR)

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dsaur

dsaur

Posted
Posted

Larry,

It seems pretty clear ATL benefits more from weak sliders than amped up storms. Very nice info Larry. Thank you.

And Tony does too!  To hot a storm and it's a few minutes of sleet for me, and then cold rain, even if Atl gets snow on the north side.  My problem with forecasters is they all seem to think Ga. and the south, end at I 20, and apparently the storms sometimes believe that.  My way of fighting against that is the occasionally get way more snow than the airport because the storm is a bit further south, and in fits of weakness, I admit I will thumb my nose towards the north and go...ya, ya, yaya ya :)  T

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

I can only see out to 192. What's it showing?

 

Not one, not two, but three Arctic highs after 192 with a very stout +PNA. The SE is only grazed by the 1st but gets some of the 2nd. The 3rd is coming in late. Details aren't important. The point is that despite all of this warm talk, there have been many GFS runs with a strong +PNA and there is ample cold air coming down in some cases during the 2nd week of Dec. The 11-15 averages cold for the SE and VERY cold for the DC area.

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted

Not one, not two, but three Arctic highs after 192 with a very stout +PNA. The SE is only grazed by the 1st but gets some of the 2nd. The 3rd is coming in late. Details aren't important. The point is that despite all of this warm talk, there have been many GFS runs with a strong +PNA and there is ample cold air coming down in some cases during the 2nd week of Dec. The 11-15 averages cold for the SE and VERY cold for the DC area.

I see it now. Very impressive. Basically we are (possible) looking at another year like last year where the models cannot be used to even get a general idea of what is coming.

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