T. August Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 http://www.wxchallenge.com/ Very interesting, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SWOhioWX Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 Appears to be another data error? Rankings are all out of whack right now. Also, I figure I should intruduce myself, been lurking here for awhile. I am Alec22 forecasting for The Ohio State University. I with 79/59/12/0 for the day. Questioning the low a bit, afraid it might get cooler tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 Not trying to be Captain Obvious, bu I don't think the high will make it to 79+ today. With dewpoint already below 50, the low is going to drop hard tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 wth is wrong with the rankings haha. I dropped like a 1000 places and users with a lot of error points went down in points. hopefully it get fixed soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 How's everyone doing this week? I'm sitting at 258.....not bad for making 3 minute forecasts. Gunna bust hard on the low today, but my high forecast of 77 is looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 It's 75 now, so I think they're on schedule for a 79-80ish high. Hoping for 79 haha. Winds have been sustained at 10 knots for the last 3 hours, so we'll see how much higher they got intra-hour. Can't really run hypotheticals right now with the results being out of whack, so I'm not sure what I can "get away with" error wise today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 I don't know, guys. The high clouds have slowed the rise in temperatures so far today, but they'll be out in a couple hours. I'm at 79F, and I'm still worried it'll reach 80F. To me, 79F and 80F are the most likely numbers for the high right now (with 78F and 81F being distinct possibilities). The low tonight... I seriously considered going lower, but not a single piece of guidance suggested I should... I wish I had, though, there's no reason it shouldn't drop like a rock when the sun goes down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 It's 75 now, so I think they're on schedule for a 79-80ish high. Hoping for 79 haha. Winds have been sustained at 10 knots for the last 3 hours, so we'll see how much higher they got intra-hour. Can't really run hypotheticals right now with the results being out of whack, so I'm not sure what I can "get away with" error wise today. I was having those weird hypothetical problems earlier, but the last hypothetical I checked seemed to work fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 I was having those weird hypothetical problems earlier, but the last hypothetical I checked seemed to work fine. Yeah, it's working now. It looks like I can get away with a high of 80 and a wind of only 13 knots and still move into 2nd among cat 3 forecasters, which makes me happy. If the high only hits 79, I can get away with a wind of 12 knots, and I think 12 knots at least is a lock, although the 14 knots that I really want is more questionable. All of the top cat 3 forecasters went 57 or warmer for the low, so I think I'm golden there even if it gets cooler. Not many cat 3s went with a high cooler than 79 either. I just don't want it to hit 80. I can't stand when the consensus is right on a variable, especially when I differ from consensus (duh) If I have an unlikely perfect forecast on the high and wind with a low of 57 or cooler, me and Max would be tied for 4th overall with 18.0 points and you'd be 0.3 points behind us. That would be quite a feat I think! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 I'm just hoping winds can pull 13 or better. They were 3mph higher intra hour yesterday. Hope that is the same case. If you believe the nam, top of the BL winds reach 22 knots around 18z. Who knows if that will come down to the surface a bit. I agree with Mallow on the high 79-80. Don't know how low the temp will drop tonight with winds becoming SE tonight and dew no lower than 54 with rising pwats towards 1". Best bet is around 58 +/- 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 78F now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 78F now It can keep climbing as much as it wants. Or just to 80/81 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 It can keep climbing as much as it wants. Or just to 80/81 Yesterday they only added 2F (and barely) after 17z, so we'll see haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 Welp, never mind about what I said earlier regarding the high... I don't know, guys. The high clouds have slowed the rise in temperatures so far today, but they'll be out in a couple hours. I'm at 79F, and I'm still worried it'll reach 80F. To me, 79F and 80F are the most likely numbers for the high right now (with 78F and 81F being distinct possibilities). The low tonight... I seriously considered going lower, but not a single piece of guidance suggested I should... I wish I had, though, there's no reason it shouldn't drop like a rock when the sun goes down. Lack of guidance support prevented me from going 57/58 as well. I wish I had put more weight into the fact USL went from 61 to 58 between 12z and 22z forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 These clouds couldn't have picked a better time to come in. We'll see if it's enough to keep the high at 79F... probably not, but I wouldn't rule it out just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 These clouds couldn't have picked a better time to come in. We'll see if it's enough to keep the high at 79F... probably not, but I wouldn't rule it out just yet.Back down to 76, we may be ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 winds have also ticked down too .. climo report should be interesting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 I think we might safely say the high will be 79. I'm really curious to what climo will say for the winds. We've had a consistent 2-3 kt bump in winds from past climo reports for times between the reported winds on the updated metars. Also, how low can we go tonight before the temps start leveling off with a change of wind direction sometime late evening. We shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 I think we might safely say the high will be 79. I'm really curious to what climo will say for the winds. We've had a consistent 2-3 kt bump in winds from past climo reports for times between the reported winds on the updated metars. Also, how low can we go tonight before the temps start leveling off with a change of wind direction sometime late evening. We shall see They're bouncing around so much with these high clouds that it wouldn't surprise me at all if they managed to find 80F in there at some point. And we still have one more hour of potential warmth before the bottom falls out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 They're bouncing around so much with these high clouds that it wouldn't surprise me at all if they managed to find 80F in there at some point. And we still have one more hour of potential warmth before the bottom falls out.I'd say if the climo comes out and they didn't hit 80 before 4PM and then the 5PM ob is 78 or cooler that the high will probably be 79. But this last hour or so concerns me a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 I'd say if the climo comes out and they didn't hit 80 before 4PM and then the 5PM ob is 78 or cooler that the high will probably be 79. But this last hour or so concerns me a bit. Agreed. If the 5PM obs is 79F, though, we'll have to wait 'til 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 So far 79F and 13kts. EDIT: And back down to 76F on the 5PM obs, so the 79F/13kts are likely the final numbers. Now... let's see if we can get that temperature down before 06z! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 So far 79F and 13kts. EDIT: And back down to 76F on the 5PM obs, so the 79F/13kts are likely the final numbers. Now... let's see if we can get that temperature down before 06z! Thinking we see a repeat of day 5/6 night period tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 Thinking we see a repeat of day 5/6 night period tonight. Ya, especially day 5. Just wondering how low it's going to get before it stalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 (perhaps a little over-dramatic, but oh well)...68 now with calm winds. Dews are up to 57, but if the SE winds don't kick in for a few hours that shouldn't stop upper 50's...and hopefully 57. There will be a few high clouds moving through at some point over the next couple of hours, so we'll see if that slows things down at all. I think they only get a degree or two cooler after 6z for the day 8 low with light SE winds advecting in higher dews later tonight, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 millennium.jpg (perhaps a little over-dramatic, but oh well)...68 now with calm winds. Dews are up to 57, but if the SE winds don't kick in for a few hours that shouldn't stop upper 50's...and hopefully 57. There will be a few high clouds moving through at some point over the next couple of hours, so we'll see if that slows things down at all. I think they only get a degree or two cooler after 6z for the day 8 low with light SE winds advecting in higher dews later tonight, but we'll see. What's with the picture? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 What's with the picture? I'm over-exaggerating temps falling 6 degrees in an hour as the sun goes down...just ignore me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 Comes down to a degree here or a knot there. We'll see... 83/57/12/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SWOhioWX Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 83/56/11/0 Hoping to crack the top 50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 82/56/10. Also ILM's down to 64, hopefully we can drop another 5F in the next 6 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.