MillvilleWx Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 83/59/12/0 I'm really hoping on that light SE wind to hold the temp a notch around the 3-4am time frame. These high clouds moving in could do the trick too for a period. We shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 Comes down to a degree here or a knot there. We'll see... 83/57/12/0 Well Mallow I just did the math and regardless of what happens tomorrow, there is no way I can pass you for a trophy... so hope you win it! My numbers 83/56/12/0 (kpap88 here) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 82/56/11/0.00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 ILM down to 60 already. We'll see when it finally bottoms out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 Well Mallow I just did the math and regardless of what happens tomorrow, there is no way I can pass you for a trophy... so hope you win it! My numbers 83/56/12/0 (kpap88 here) Haha, thanks! In order to get no. 1 in this city, I need the 58F before 06z tonight, and exactly a 57F low and an 83F high tomorrow... so it's a very long shot. But my trophy prospects are a little better. A 58F before 06z tonight would make it much easier for me, but I think I still need either a 57F low or an 83F high tomorrow to do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 Went 83/55/11/0 The low is a bit of a gamble. If my lows work out or are close tonight I should be in decent shape for a trophy, but we'll just have to wait and see on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 Haha, thanks! In order to get no. 1 in this city, I need the 58F before 06z tonight, and exactly a 57F low and an 83F high tomorrow... so it's a very long shot. But my trophy prospects are a little better. A 58F before 06z tonight would make it much easier for me, but I think I still need either a 57F low or an 83F high tomorrow to do it. I won Grand Folks last year on a miracle with my classmate taking runner-up trophy on a even bigger miracle. Nothing is impossible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 84 / 55 / 9 / 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 82/56/12/0 for tomorrow I have 58 for today so it would be nice to drop a few more degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 ugh 3 straight hrs of 60 degree obs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 ugh 3 straight hrs of 60 degree obs There were some high clouds until around 11:15PM. The dew point came down to 57 last hour, winds are still calm and satellite appears to show a break in the clouds for the next few hours. I'm not sure they'll hit 56-57 like we're looking for but I could definitely see 58. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 There were some high clouds until around 11:15PM. The dew point came down to 57 last hour, winds are still calm and satellite appears to show a break in the clouds for the next few hours. I'm not sure they'll hit 56-57 like we're looking for but I could definitely see 58. 58 it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 58 doesn't kill me...but at this point, by my math, if the low doesn't get to 56 or cooler this morning I would in fact not get a trophy. At least I'll know when I wake up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 82/58/11/0. Ive been out all night until now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 I must have made an error in my calculations... even with a perfect day today, I'm still 0.4 points behind first place (wxBONE). But with that voodoo magic I pulled nailing both yesterday's 58F and today's 57F (wow am I lucky), all I need for a cat 2 trophy is either a wind at 12kts+, or a high at 83F+. Neither of those is a guarantee at the moment... I'd say I'm at about 50/50 odds for a trophy right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 No trophy, but am rooting for a few people here who are in position and a grad student here at Ohio U. Lows just didn't work out for me (as Mallow said yesterday, a degree here or a knot there is what it comes down to)...I have no idea how Butte will go but I managed to do well in Cheyenne last year so I can hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 Best case scenario for me is T5 in category 4 and T76 overall. Not what I wanted but not bad for a freshman I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 That 77F is encouraging to me. Only one clear day (Oct 6) since the beginning of October have they not warmed up at least 6F since 11AM. That day was also a southerly day, but the southerlies came in strong which is what stopped the temperatures from rising. So... I have a feeling if I don't get my 83F high today, it'll be because the winds came in strong, making me more likely to get my 12kt wind. And as I said before, all I need is one or the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurg Posted October 10, 2014 Author Share Posted October 10, 2014 Assuming a 1 point day for myself today (had a low of 58), I'll finish at 107 for the site. I'll take that for the start of the competition... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wi_fl_wx Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 Nice forecasting everyone!!! Looks like I'll end up around 80th...looking forward to Butte next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 Rut roh raggy. Already a sea breeze kickin in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 Rut roh raggy. Already a sea breeze kickin in. Its really hard to tell though if its a "true" sea breeze since the mean synoptic flow is out of the southeast on the backside of the ridge. I think we still have a couple more hours of warming, especially given the perfectly clear skies and little evidence of a distinct temperature gradient near the coastline (it was 80 last hour in the southern Outer Banks at Ocracoke Island). I think 83 still looks rather likely given that it warmed up another 4 degrees from this point yesterday and they had more cloud cover and the seabreeze came in around 21 UTC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 11+ knots should get me into Top 200 and around 10th to 13th among Category 4. 11+ knots will also give me a new career-low score of around -3.4, beating the result from Grand Folks. However, I would've been around -4.0 had I done a forecast Monday night and I'm still beating myself over that Oh well, at least I'm not starting with +2.70 like I did in my WxChallenge debut last year. Rut roh raggy. Already a sea breeze kickin in. From my experience, sea breeze usually doesn't kick in until later in afternoon. We'll see, though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 I really wish last day was tomorrow. Looks to be quite warm. Maybe even 90F at ILM tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 Still looking like either 82F or 83F today. That one degree makes all the difference in the world for me... EDIT: Based on nearby Weather Underground stations, though, it seems that the warming has all but stopped. 82F might even be pushing it... in which case, I really need to hope for that 12kt wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 Well my gamble with the low didn't pay off like I hoped, but if I can nail the high or get a 12+kt wind, I'll finish top 100. I really have done well with the wind, high and precip this city, but I got burned on the low. I had a tough go on that forecast aspect, but hey, I'll take a -3 to -4 after city #1. Let's see how this finishes and then it's off to Butte. Good luck to Mallow and anyone else fighting for a trophy in here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 Yeah it's not getting to 83F today. May not even get to 82F. I gotta hope for that 12kt wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 I'm going to fall out of the top 20 if it only hits 80 or 81. Butte will hopefully be more spread out so a 2 degree error on the high/low probably won't kill you on any given day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 Right now they have it at 81 which happened between 1-2pm. If this sticks to around 80 again on this next update, I highly doubt it'll get to 83 Edit: And with a temp of 80 at the 3pm update, it's not looking like a 83 degree day will be in the books. I hope for Mallow's sake the winds are 12+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 Right now they have it at 81 which happened between 1-2pm. If this sticks to around 80 again on this next update, I highly doubt it'll get to 83 Edit: And with a temp of 80 at the 3pm update, it's not looking like a 83 degree day will be in the books. I hope for Mallow's sake the winds are 12+ Up to 9 knots and with typical +2 or +3 knots for climo, he has a fighting chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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