OHweather Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Definitely going to have to do better day 2 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 61/36/21/0.00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 62/37/25/0.04 Only I'm comfortable with temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Whelp, that sucked.. 62/38/25/0.00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Once again not confident in any of my numbers... 62/36/24/0.02 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 64/35/30/0 If they see enough sun during the first half of the day that high should be attainable. If the winds go light enough in the evening they should drop hard (that's a 6z low I'm going for). Based on how the models did on winds today (generally, were low by in some cases as much as half) and what they show tomorrow, and based on 30 knots not far off the ground in a cold air advection regime during the afternoon, think that 30 knots isn't impossible to do. My winds may end up too high but I want to take a shot. Decent shot of mid-level moisture for a few hours but I think any precip will evaporate before hitting the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 62/38/25/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Another huge spread tomorrow. The GFS/NAM are way off from the USL. The Euro has 44 for a low tonight which is in line with USL more or less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 62/38/25/0 same as me also very nice forecast today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Damn, no one is in the colder high temp.camp with me...hoping for evaporational cooling but didn't put precip (tried to change it to 0.02 when I got home from work just now but I was a minute too late)? 58/34/25/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 My grade in the met class I am taking actually depends on this (the wx challenge as a whole). Curious, anyone else have the same situation going on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Another huge spread tomorrow. The GFS/NAM are way off from the USL. The Euro has 44 for a low tonight which is in line with USL more or less. Sure, but the Euro has mid-30s by 06z tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 My grade in the met class I am taking actually depends on this (the wx challenge as a whole). Curious, anyone else have the same situation going on? In my class it's the opposite. Although the class is structured around WxChallenge, their grades do not depend on their performance in WxChallenge (though trophies do earn them small extra-credit bonuses). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 same as me also very nice forecast today! Haha thanks...I'll enjoy it while it lasts Hopefully tomorrow works out...not very confident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurg Posted October 15, 2014 Author Share Posted October 15, 2014 Damn, no one is in the colder high temp.camp with me...hoping for evaporational cooling but didn't put precip (tried to change it to 0.02 when I got home from work just now but I was a minute too late)? 58/34/25/0 I did. Kinda. 60/38/23/.04 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Honestly, I made a mistake pushing for 0.04. Hopefully I get some precip AND that 25+ knots so I can get myself into trophy position (currently 7th among Cat. 4). A gutsy forecast on Day 2 got me into Cat.4 trophy position for Grand Folks last year and won it eventually, so I'm hoping it'll be the case again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 63/35/26/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Sure, but the Euro has mid-30s by 06z tomorrow night. Yes, I saw that, 34 at 6Z to be exact. What I meant was I am banking on the 6z temp tomorrow...going a bit warmer than the euro and a little cooler than the USL at that time. The fact that the Euro is in line with USL gives me more confidence is what I meant. The NAM/GFS MOS I am throwing out the window, hopefully i'm not wrong. This Is a lot tougher than Wilmington that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 My grade in the met class I am taking actually depends on this (the wx challenge as a whole). Curious, anyone else have the same situation going on?I've had a class where I get points for participation in wx challenge, but not where my grade depends on my success in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Mallow: I agree with you. I think it is unfair to base someone's grade on the wxchallenge, even though it is a operational forecasting class. But it is what it is, I just have to see both sides of the fence and deal with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 My grade in the met class I am taking actually depends on this (the wx challenge as a whole). Curious, anyone else have the same situation going on? At UNCA, there's a class that grade us based on improvement from first city to last city of the semester (unless the score is good already). I think that's coming up for me next semester, but we'll see. EDIT: I should note it's not overall grade. Just a percentage of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 It is not solely based on the wxchallenge but a part of the grade does depend on our rank in the wxchallenge. Where we place at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SWOhioWX Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Went with 61/39/23/0.02 Not really sure about any of my numbers... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Honestly, I made a mistake pushing for 0.04. Hopefully I get some precip AND that 25+ knots so I can get myself into trophy position (currently 7th among Cat. 4). A gutsy forecast on Day 2 got me into Cat.4 trophy position for Grand Folks last year and won it eventually, so I'm hoping it'll be the case again. 61/39/20/0.00 Finishing the day with 2.0 points assuming the wind peaked at 17kts so far, hopefully gambling pays off again tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 61/39/20/0.00 Finishing the day with 2.0 points assuming the wind peaked at 17kts so far, hopefully gambling pays off again tomorrow. Climo has wind of 19kts... 50/50 we see a bit more on the final climo report. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Climo has wind of 19kts... 50/50 we see a bit more on the final climo report. Yeah I had assumed that the WxChallenge site had it correct. I see that now. I'm doing a little worse than I originally expected lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 I did. Kinda. 60/38/23/.04 Alright, deviating from the almighty USL a bit I'm not just saying this because my high/low aren't close to it, but it'd be nice to have a day where the USL messes up. Just saying... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Alright, deviating from the almighty USL a bit I'm not just saying this because my high/low aren't close to it, but it'd be nice to have a day where the USL messes up. Just saying... I read this post and chuckled a little to myself. It's mind blowing how the USL got it right again today to the EXACT temp high and low...and the NAM/GFS guidance as well as its ensemble members were so far off (by several degrees). Id bet money that the low tonight is going to be no where near 34 or 36 (NAM/GFS) and probably mid 40s per the USL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 57/35/17/0.00 We better start praying for a 6z low........it is still 48 out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Any reason that the WxChallenge site is showing the final wind at 17kts? The climo report had 19kts but it looks like it's not being used? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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