The 4 Seasons Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 gotcha, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SWOhioWX Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Went 68/35/21/0. Was thinking about going a bit lower with the low, but it was really hard to doubt the USL on this one. Also I don't see it getting any higher than 67-69 tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Pardon my ignorance but what is the USL, I noticed it on the results, rank is 29th which is damn good for a computer model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Pardon my ignorance but what is the USL, I noticed it on the results, rank is 29th which is damn good for a computer model. http://www.microclimates.org/forecast/wxchallenge.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Thank you for the link. Yeah I saw that when doing a google search but how is it so incredibly accurate, it blows away the NAM and GFS MOS in comparison. I guess my question is what exactly IS it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smoked Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 70/33/21/0 Not crazy confident about this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Thank you for the link. Yeah I saw that when doing a google search but how is it so incredibly accurate, it blows away the NAM and GFS MOS in comparison. I guess my question is what exactly IS it? It stands for "Uncoupled Surface Layer Model." I myself don't know a whole lot about the physics of it. I believe it's proprietary which is why you don't find much about it on a Google search. Here is a pdf file about it that I found: http://www.met.sjsu.edu/~voss/MET171B/lec/usl-notes.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Thank you H20town_wx for your reply. It seems that would be a good tool to have to forecast locally as well, not just for the challenge. The ECMWF grided data for Butte was more in line with the USL but I was leery of using it as it was constantly underforecasting the highs for Wilmington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 68/34/21/0 This city will be interesting to forecast for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Wow. I am so out of touch with forecasting I forgot to look at the MOS data......F me. 67/39/25/0.00 for tomorrow. Bit unfortunate that I have t make my forecast based on the 12z model data. Oh well. Com'on clouds and gusty winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 67/34/18/0.00 Was thinking 31/32 on low, but winds scared me away from gambling. EDIT: Had I forecasted after 22z USL comes out, I would've gone for 32/33 even with winds being factored in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 69/30/21/0.00 High and winds I'm fairly confident on. That low? Yeah that was a gamble. My thinking was that last night was 30, and the Dew tonight should be lower (and the MOSs were handling the Td better than the SREF members, which is why I sided with them and their 30 and 29). Going against that, of course, is some WAA, and its associated cloud cover. But I mean, it's all just a game anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 This will either go really well or really bad but I went 66/38/20/0. I didn't like that MOS gave clear or mostly clear skies tonight and tomorrow when I think there will be a decent deck of high clouds for most of the time. Some of the hi-res models kept lows tonight above 40 which I thought was unreasonable, but I leaned warmer than MOS. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Winds already dead calm interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Doesn't look good for those who went with low-30s, as dewpoint is up to 32. Cooling also stopped at 1 am MDT last night, so there's a risk of temperature stall in few hours from now while still in mid-30s/upper-30s. Maybe calm winds will do the trick for those in low-30s camp? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 New 00Z GFS and NAM MOS going for 73 and 70 respectively tomorrow...interesting. I Still think those are too high and well end up in the 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 After last two observations, I feel better about my 34. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Time for the next city yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SWOhioWX Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 I put 35 for the low, it is going to be close. Sunrise is at 7:45 MDT, so I suspect that it could drop another degree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurg Posted October 14, 2014 Author Share Posted October 14, 2014 Time for the next city yet? I'm with you there. Hoping for at least one more degree drop with next 6-hour min output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 It is just day 1 haha, although I had a bad start with the low also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Looks like the lower low camp won out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurg Posted October 14, 2014 Author Share Posted October 14, 2014 Looks like the lower low camp won out.How do you figure that? I don't expect a low below 34 for the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Just need one more degree drop to 34 and I'm good. Consensus is going to be tough to crack this city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SWOhioWX Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Not even entirely sure if it actually hit 34 considering the temperature was 36 at the 7:53AM MDT. I might have actually nailed the low (35). Fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurg Posted October 14, 2014 Author Share Posted October 14, 2014 Metar hasn't updated since 15Z ob. We must've broke it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 The winds are gunna show up today right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 34F for the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Winds are finally picking up and temperature is still rising sharply. Hoping winds and some clouds will slow it down some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Winds are finally picking up and temperature is still rising sharply. Hoping winds and some clouds will slow it down some. The most I see is 71F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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