hm8 Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 That's an awfully large precip shield/cold pool that will have to weaken across IL and wrn IN... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 Right now I'm thinking along the lines of Tony as I live just ne of Indpls. However, rain is moving more ne and thinning out as it comes into Indiana from Illinois. Our flash flood watch doesn't begin till 2 p.m. eastern. Still think heavy rain is greatest threat but possibilities for svr might ramp up the farther south and east one goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 A modest rain event at home. Only 0.70" through 7am. Ceilings are quite low this morning, almost to the point of having fog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 Moderate rain falling right now. .84" so far since it started. Looks like we might see about 1" or a bit more of rain out of this. Looks like it will be ending by noon or so around here. Trailing edge of the rain shield is WSW just past Joliet. Looks like its on an Ottawa to Rockford line at the moment, moving ENE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 HRRR continues to be bullish/optimistic. Many things going against any sort of significant redevelopment later. I will say that the air-mass over much of Missouri now has at least maintained itself. Locally backed (southerly winds), dew-points in the lower 70s, 50kt low level jet and some instability already in place. It may be too little too late, but I'd still keep an eye on central Illinois into western Indiana later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 I'm surprised nobody posted this. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1707 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1034 AM CDT WED SEP 10 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IL..IND...WRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 101534Z - 101730Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR ANY INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON FOR A CONDITIONAL TORNADO THREAT. DISCUSSION...A LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NRN IL AND WILL CONTINUE RAPIDLY NEWD ACROSS INDIANA...NWRN OH AND LOWER MI. WIND PROFILES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE ARE RELATIVELY STRONG...WITH AREA VWPS SHOWING 300-400 M2/S2 0-1 KM SRH. AROUND 1430Z...A WEAK THUNDERSTORM SHOWED BRIEF SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS OVER CNTRL IL...BUT IT APPEARS THE PRIMARY UPDRAFT HAS SINCE DETACHED FROM THE BOUNDARY LAYER INFLOW AND HAS BECOME ELEVATED...SHIFTING LEFTWARD. HOWEVER...THIS SUGGESTS THE ENVIRONMENT IS CLOSE TO BEING FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST BRIEF TORNADOES...CONDITIONAL MAINLY ON SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER DESTBILIZATION OCCURRING COINCIDENT WITH THE LEADING DISTURBANCE. 15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DEWPOINTS IN THE 70-71 F RANGE WIDESPREAD NOW ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR AND GRADUALLY SPREADING NWD ACROSS INDIANA AND WRN OH. UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S TEMPERATURES WERE PRESENT ACROSS SRN IL...AND THIS HIGHER THETA-E AIR SHOULD SPREAD NWD LATER THIS MORNING ACROSS INDIANA. A LIMITING FACTOR IS EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE LEADING BAND OF PRECIPITATION...BUT PARTIAL HEATING IS OCCURRING ACROSS SWRN INDIANA. IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER DESTABILIZATION VIA LOW-LEVEL ADVECTION WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR FURTHER SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT TODAY BEFORE THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. ONCE THIS WAVE PASSES...EARLY POTENTIAL SHOULD BE LARGELY OVER...WITH ANY ADDITIONAL AND PRIMARILY WIND THREAT FOCUSING SWWD ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT. ..JEWELL/CORFIDI.. 09/10/2014 ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX... LAT...LON 40448798 41008742 41458634 41618527 41528427 40888379 40178393 39628533 39258655 39148749 39318829 39758843 40448798 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 .96" of rain as of 10:50 this morning in my area. Rain is pretty much out of the way now. Per Channel 9, some scattered rain later. However, it is 72, with winds out of the SW @ 10-15, and still very humid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 Rain is definitely pretty heavy for just stratiform type stuff. Got a lot of it to go too. Edit: are we talking flooding/general rain here or in the September thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 Looks like two areas of enhanced potential today. The lead zone over E IL/IN/W OH may be driven a bit strong with shear, but clouds and limiting heating. On the flip side, MO and W IL are destablizing somewhat, but the shear pattern is more unidirectional. Mixed signals and mixed storm mode expected, but I concur with the 1630z SPC update mentioning the slight tornado risk across E MO/IL. 0-1km helicity is a healthy 200-300+ m2/s2. If a discrete cell can take advantage, then there would be some legit potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 4 km NAM, which is doing a decent job with current activity, does this later. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 4 km NAM, which is doing a decent job with current activity, does this later. We'll see. rad11.gif Not many times I can remember the atmosphere recovering that well after so much rain and crap earlier in the day. I remain highly skeptical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 Not many times I can remember the atmosphere recovering that well after so much rain and crap earlier in the day. I remain highly skeptical. That model also has temps getting near 80 for us...if we stay cooler then that would probably hurt chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 Quincy, is there any chance of a discrete storm mode initially?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 Supercell forming between Wabash and Marion needs to be watched closely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 Also one on the east side of Kokomo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 A CoCoRaHS station in MO reported 10.60" of rain last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 Would not at all be surprised if these storms tornado. These moist neutral, highly-sheared boundary layers love to show off how dynamic pressure perturbations can single-handedly force the issue of tornado production. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 Supercell forming between Wabash and Marion needs to be watched closely. Also one on the east side of Kokomo. Both severe now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afterimage Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0501.html WOUS64 KWNS 101752 WOU1 BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 501 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 155 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2014 TORNADO WATCH 501 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS INC001-003-005-009-011-013-021-029-031-033-035-041-047-053-055- 057-059-063-065-067-069-071-075-079-081-093-095-097-103-105-109- 119-133-135-137-139-145-151-159-161-169-177-179-183-110100- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0501.140910T1755Z-140911T0100Z/ IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ALLEN BARTHOLOMEW BLACKFORD BOONE BROWN CLAY DEARBORN DECATUR DELAWARE DE KALB FAYETTE FRANKLIN GRANT GREENE HAMILTON HANCOCK HENDRICKS HENRY HOWARD HUNTINGTON JACKSON JAY JENNINGS JOHNSON LAWRENCE MADISON MARION MIAMI MONROE MORGAN OWEN PUTNAM RANDOLPH RIPLEY RUSH SHELBY STEUBEN TIPTON UNION WABASH WAYNE WELLS WHITLEY MIC059-091-115-110100- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0501.140910T1755Z-140911T0100Z/ MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HILLSDALE LENAWEE MONROE OHC003-011-017-021-033-037-039-043-051-063-065-069-077-091-095- 101-107-109-113-123-125-135-137-143-147-149-159-161-171-173-175- 110100- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0501.140910T1755Z-140911T0100Z/ OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN AUGLAIZE BUTLER CHAMPAIGN CRAWFORD DARKE DEFIANCE ERIE FULTON HANCOCK HARDIN HENRY HURON LOGAN LUCAS MARION MERCER MIAMI MONTGOMERY OTTAWA PAULDING PREBLE PUTNAM SANDUSKY SENECA SHELBY UNION VAN WERT WILLIAMS WOOD WYANDOT LEZ142-143-144-162-163-164-444-110100- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0501.140910T1755Z-140911T0100Z/ CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH DETROIT RIVER LT. TO MAUMEE BAY OH TO RENO BEACH OH BEYOND 5NM OFFSHORELINE TO US-CANADIAN BORDER RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORELINE TO US-CANADIAN BORDER THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORELINE TO US-CANADIAN BORDER MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI ATTN...WFO...IWX...DTX...CLE...ILN...IND... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 Quincy, is there any chance of a discrete storm mode initially??That's looking less likely at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 Wouldn't it be something if this turns into quite a severe event. Pouring rain but dew point is now 70 here and those storms back in Indiana actually seem to be strengthening. Mesoanalysis shows some instability across NW Ohio as well so I guess we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 Wouldn't it be something if this turns into quite a severe event. Pouring rain but dew point is now 70 here and those storms back in Indiana actually seem to be strengthening. Mesoanalysis shows some instability across NW Ohio as well so I guess we'll see Doubtful. That line of convection is extremely low-topped with no lightning. It'll probably produce a few weak funnels and the occasional severe wind gusts, but nothing major... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 10, 2014 Author Share Posted September 10, 2014 Decent rotation near Arcadia, IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 Looks like mid afternoon temperatures have slowly climbed into the low 80s in downstate IL. That should bode well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 Doubtful. That line of convection is extremely low-topped with no lightning. It'll probably produce a few weak funnels and the occasional severe wind gusts, but nothing major... I mean I thought so as well but the SPC put Moderate up for multiple tornadoes and seem quite bullish. I guess we'll find out here in a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 10, 2014 Author Share Posted September 10, 2014 I mean I thought so as well but the SPC put Moderate up for multiple tornadoes and seem quite bullish. I guess we'll find out here in a bit Tornado watches always have a moderate probability (30% or greater) for 2 or more tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 Tornado watches always have a moderate probability (30% or greater) for 2 or more tornadoes. I thought I had seen a few low before. And who knows with how the CAPE continues to improve ahead of these storms as does the temperature Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 10, 2014 Author Share Posted September 10, 2014 I thought I had seen a few low before. And who knows with how the CAPE continues to improve ahead of these storms as does the temperature There are some breaks/weaknesses in the cloud shield over central/southern IN and W OH, some of the high res guidance from last night does appear to be on decent track so we'll see, but this shouldn't be anything major. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 The storms to watch will definitely be the ones coming out of Ilinois... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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