Powerball Posted September 9, 2014 Share Posted September 9, 2014 ^^^12z NMM showed that same pencil-thin band of 4-6" through the city of Detroit as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 over under, 5" on highest 1 day total in DVN/LOT over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 over over/unders running neck and neck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 over under, 5" on highest 1 day total in DVN/LOT Over for DVN Under for LOT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 Over for DVN Under for LOT decent call based on modeling i think parts of southwestern LOT, down around Peru could make a run at 5+, especially if they see another round in the afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 That little pinhole over central IA right near DSM is where I live. So far, it's accurate with this small area that keeps killing off the moisture as it comes over me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 Over for DVN Under for LOT I agree with this, if there is anyone in LOT that gets around 5" it would be out by Rockford. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 Southerly winds starting to kick pretty good down here... Slowly feeling the air growing sticky again... the 2+ pwat is expanding nicely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 ^^^12z NMM showed that same pencil-thin band of 4-6" through the city of Detroit as well... Yikes... hopefully there isn't any serious flooding again, here or elsewhere across the subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 WPC.... 94ewbg.gif and new disco... 6 to 9 possible.... I couldn't imagine getting 6" let alone 9" in one night! Some calls for heaviest rain in the northern LOT cwa others southern part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 Not quite as concerned about excessive rains around here, as the storms in northern Missouri are sort of sinking southeast and may keep the highest totals well to the south. Still gonna get a good dose tonight, but not worried about 4" rains anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boogieman Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 Meh... not enthusiastic about a major rain event after the 18"+ we got in the lower level this May. We were going to head out to Sandy Pines today but decided to wait until Thursday after all the rain is finished. That said, I have two 3/4 hp pumps in the sump in case we get drowned here. I redid all the plumbing for the sump pump when I replaced the dead one that caused the flood. Thus far, the second pump (first has a pressure switch, second is a dual-float set above the top of the first pump) hasn't had to kick in during the heavy rains we had over the summer . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 Well this certainly won't help the Severe Weather potential... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 NAM finally came back down to earth and then some... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 Over for DVN Under for LOT Going over over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 Well this certainly won't help the Severe Weather potential... Pretty sure this has been modeled as a problem the whole time, however it's relatively early still. Only 1030 pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 HRRR pretty hefty on rain totals easily 2+ north of 70 in MO/IL Sent from my SM-G900V Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boogieman Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 Northern KS is really getting dumped on right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 10, 2014 Author Share Posted September 10, 2014 NAM expectedly caves, that model's performance all year has just been utter dogsh*t. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 There is a spot near the KS/NE/MO border area where 3 different radars are estimating > 7" of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 NAM expectedly caves, that model's performance all year has just been utter dogsh*t. Does still have decent instability south of the Lakes though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 ground scraping LCLs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 NAM expectedly caves, that model's performance all year has just been utter dogsh*t. Fixed that for you... The last time I think the NAM had a clue was with its GHD coup... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 0z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 And a PW of 2.46...wow. That's like 3 standards of deviation above the mean and probably close to record territory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 Does still have decent instability south of the Lakes though. I wouldn't say tomorrow's threat is completely nill. Those 850s will absolutely mix down some damaging winds! Even with relatively low sbCAPE values. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 And a PW of 2.46...wow. That's like 3 standards of deviation above the mean and probably close to record territory. No doubt. Unfortunately no RAOB sites in Indiana but looking at records for sites in adjacent states, it's basically record territory for September and not terribly far off from all-time records. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 The season (as far as severe weather) has already been quite impressive, so it won't be that huge of a bummer if the potential with this system goes to waste... Should definitely get some nice wind-driven / "chilly" stratiform rain action though, if nothing else... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 No doubt. Unfortunately no RAOB sites in Indiana but looking at records for sites in adjacent states, it's basically record territory for September and not terribly far off from all-time records. Funny you mention no RAOB site for IND...I was just going to ask if it annoys you guys. I get perturbed that St. Louis doesn't have one either. I say move ILX (since it is close to DVN) to LSX and then add one in IND and call it good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 Funny you mention no RAOB site for IND...I was just going to ask if it annoys you guys. I get perturbed that St. Louis doesn't have one either. I say move ILX (since it is close to DVN) to LSX and then add one in IND and call it good. IND would be nice. I'm just glad that ILX is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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