A-L-E-K Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 saw that one coming a mile away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 I figured it would happen this morning. Thick clouds overhead right now. Still gotta clean the garage. >>Sigh<< Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Potential's not looking too good anywhere right now, with the widespread stratus complicating things further... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Remind me to not start a thread this winter... ^^^Works for me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Potential's not looking too good anywhere right now, with the widespread stratus complicating things further... Yep, doubt about the entire risk area at this point (at least in our subforum) but it's still early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 SPC seems to think the more vigorous action will be down in MO. But I hope I get some scattered clearing here in central IN for something to form later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boogieman Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 I figured it would happen this morning. Thick clouds overhead right now. Still gotta clean the garage. >>Sigh<< I can relate... the wife and I had to stain like 2000+ square feet of decking at her dad's cottage. It's finally done, but it took four of us breaking butt for two weeks. We didn't even get to go fishing or swimming while we were there. Back home now, we're going back next weekend to do the fishing and swimming thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 I wonder how often Marine Weather Statements are issued for "heavy rain showers..." MARINE WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI1131 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014LCZ422-423-460-011630-1131 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014...THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING THE WATERS...THE AREAS AFFECTED INCLUDE...ST. CLAIR RIVER...DETROIT RIVER...LAKE ST. CLAIR...AT 1128 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS OVER THEAMBASSADOR BRIDGE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 KNOTS. THESE STORMS MAYBE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS ASTHEY STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT HOUR.THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...GROSSE POINTE AROUND 1145 AM EDT.ST CLAIR SHORES AROUND NOON EDT.LAKE SAINT CLAIR METROPARK MARINA AROUND 1215 PM EDT.MT CLEMENS HARBOR OF REFUGE AND ST CLAIR FLATS OLD CHANNEL LIGHTAROUND 1220 PM EDT.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...MARINERS CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS UP TO 33 KNOTS...LOCALLY HIGHERWAVES... LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. BOATERS SHOULD SEEKSAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY UNTIL THIS STORM PASSES.&&LAT...LON 4261 8252 4256 8257 4255 8265 4237 82834231 8308 4239 8290 4246 8288 4249 82894256 8285 4258 8279 4262 8282 4266 82794270 8271 4269 8266 4267 8262 4263 82614261 8254 4263 8252 4284 8248 4276 8246$OROW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 The line of showers cross Lake Michigan is trying to show a little more life, so perhaps it can still develop into something... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Cycloneville can't catch a break Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Some nice storms popping like crazy in Northern Lower MI http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=APX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 And here we go...maybe... MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1655NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK1116 AM CDT MON SEP 01 2014AREAS AFFECTED...MICONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLEVALID 011616Z - 011745ZPROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENTSUMMARY...ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS PRODUCINGDAMAGING WINDS MAY INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERNLOWER MI AND THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER PENINSULA THISAFTERNOON. A WATCH IS POSSIBLE IF THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT BECOMESMORE CERTAIN.DISCUSSION...SEVERAL BANDS OF STRONGER CONVECTION HAVE RECENTLYDEVELOPED ACROSS NRN LAKE MI AND WESTERN LOWER MI WITHIN APRE-FRONTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING EWD. THE AIRMASS TO THE EAST OF THEONGOING STORMS HAS MOISTENED SUBSTANTIALLY THIS MORNING WITH SURFACEDEWPOINT TEMPS CLIMBING 1-2F PER HOUR SINCE AROUND 12Z. GENERALLYWEAK/MOIST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EVIDENT IN APX MORNING SOUNDING MAYBE SOMEWHAT OFFSET BY THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING...AS WELL ASSURFACE HEATING TAKING PLACE AHEAD OF THE EXTENSIVECLOUDS/PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND COLDFRONT FARTHER WEST. LIFT ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE SUPPORTED BYMODEST HEIGHT FALLS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS MID/UPPER TROUGH PIVOTSNORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.EXPECT RELATIVELY FAST-MOVING STORMS IN PERSISTENT CLUSTERS AND LINESEGMENTS SPREADING EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AT ABOUT30-40KT. POCKETS OF STRONGER DCAPE OVER CENTRAL AND NRNMI...INDICATED IN LATEST MESOANALYSIS DATA...COULD SUPPORT WINDGUSTS APPROACHING SEVERE LEVELS. IF THIS TREND BEGINS TO APPEARACROSS A MORE EXTENSIVE AREA...A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON...CARBIN/HART.. 09/01/2014ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...MQT...LAT...LON 46078586 46578590 46698442 45858344 44448331 4380834243608372 43428419 43248461 43028522 42948597 4321863543778593 44308590 45188579 45718580 46078586 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Latest SPC day 1 outlook, lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 We have some nice clearing now, hopefully a line of scattered t'storms can develop at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Slight risk was bifurcated with a northern and southern area remaining. Edit: powerball beat me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 ^lol. wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Latest SPC day 1 outlook, lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 I'm literally dying of laughter right now over how all of this is unfolding... The models are especially god awful in this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 DTX update: 000FXUS63 KDTX 011627AFDDTXAREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI1227 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014.UPDATE...MOST OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN REMAINS SHROUDED IN LOW AND MID-LEVELCLOUDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH THE LATEST TRENDS ON VISIBLEINDICATE THAT THE STRATUS DECK HAS BEGUN TO EVOLVE TOWARD ADIURNALLY FORCED CU FIELD. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTOTHE MID TO UPPER 70S FROM WESTERN LOWER MI NORTHEASTWARD INTO THETHUMB WHILE DEWPOINTS REMAIN LOCKED IN AROUND 70 DEGREES.THE STOUT 600MB CAP INDICATED ON THIS MORNING`S SOUNDING REMAINS THEONLY IMPEDANCE, ALBEIT A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT ONE, TO WIDESPREADSEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. CAP NOTWITHSTANDING, THERMODYNAMICPROFILES ARE IMPRESSIVE. MODERATE DESTABILIZATION IS STILL FAVOREDGIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND SURFACE TEMPERATURESALREADY PUSHING UPPER 70S AT NOON. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR FEATURINGVEERING THROUGH THE LOWEST 1.5KM AGL AND AFOREMENTIONED DEGREE OFDESTABILIZATION WILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL CONVECTIVE MODE OFSUPERCELLS. ANY SUPERCELLS WILL CARRY TORNADIC POTENTIAL GIVENFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FOR STRETCHING IN THE LOWESTLEVELS, VEERED SFC-1KM WIND PROFILES, AND REASONABLY LOW LCLS OF700-900M. UNIDIRECTIONAL MID-LEVEL WIND PROFILE AND PLENTY DRY AIRWOULD THEN SUPPORT A QUICK EVOLUTION TOWARD DOWNDRAFT MODULATEDCONVECTION AND A CORRESPONDING EVOLUTION TOWARD DYNAMIC BOWS EARLYIN THE CONVECTIVE CYCLE. GIVEN THE HIGH FREEZING LEVELS, THE LACKOF MESOCYCLONE FORCING WITHIN BOWS WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE THREATTO WIND ONLY.IN SPITE OF THE RIPE ENVIRONMENT, CAPPING LOOMS LARGE. THE 12Z NAM12ALLOWS ENCROACHING HEIGHT FALLS TO USHER IN SUFFICIENT MID-LEVELCOOLING SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG, DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH THEEARLY/MID AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME, THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OFTHE RAP IS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER COOLING THE COLUMN AND LIMITS ANYSEVERE THREAT TO THE SAGINAW VALLEY AREA WHERE MID-LEVELCOOLING/FORCING WILL BE MAXIMIZED. THE SOLUTION SPACE REMAINS WIDEOPEN AND CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE WX IS CORRESPONDINGLY LOW. AT THISPOINT, EVEN COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SEEMS TO BE IN QUESTION,PARTICULARLY IF THE LATEST NON NAM GUIDANCE IS TO BE BELIEVED. INPURSUIT OF CLARITY, AN 18Z SOUNDING IS FORTHCOMING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 First Severe T'Storm Warning issued: SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGMIC055-079-011745-/O.NEW.KAPX.SV.W.0020.140901T1657Z-140901T1745Z/BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTEDSEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI1257 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...SOUTHEASTERN GRAND TRAVERSE COUNTY IN NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...WESTERN KALKASKA COUNTY IN NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...* UNTIL 145 PM EDT* AT 1254 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR HANNAH...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PENNY SIZE HAIL.SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...KALKASKA...KINGSLEY...SPIDER LAKE...FIFE LAKE...WILLIAMSBURG...SOUTH BOARDMAN...BARKER CREEK...SHARON...RAPID CITY AND SIGMA.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF ABUILDING.THIS STORM HAS SHOWN SOME SIGNS OF ROTATION. WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELYLIKELY...A TORNADO MAY BECOME POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.&&LAT...LON 4483 8536 4482 8533 4482 8532 4485 85324486 8530 4486 8516 4461 8498 4451 85344451 8563 4459 8565TIME...MOT...LOC 1657Z 237DEG 33KT 4456 8556TORNADO...POSSIBLEHAIL...0.75INWIND...60MPH$ARNOTT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Stratus is finally mixing out. Maybe a small window for better daytime heating to help out our fleeting potential... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Severe T'storm Watch issued for N. Lower MI, in effect until 6PM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boogieman Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 I'll say this... it's plenty muggy outside. I just unloaded some stuff from our trip that was still in the van, and it felt like a sauna out there. If nothing fires up in SEMI, it surely won't be due to lack of soupy air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 Less forcing seems to be hurting things south of the MI border. The clouds probably don't help either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 201 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014 MIC009-079-011830- /O.CON.KAPX.TO.W.0008.000000T0000Z-140901T1830Z/ ANTRIM MI-KALKASKA MI- 201 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN KALKASKA AND SOUTHEASTERN ANTRIM COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM EDT... AT 158 PM EDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR ANTRIM...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 I'm literally dying of laughter right now over how all of this is unfolding... The models are especially god awful in this pattern. north south QPF split was advertised in the models for days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 north south QPF split was advertised in the models for days But they've actually been all over the place as far as the forcing mechanisms, instability and timing, which is why both the NWS and the SPC has been fumbling with their forecasts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 18z DTX Sounding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1656NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0145 PM CDT MON SEP 01 2014AREAS AFFECTED...MICONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 485...VALID 011845Z - 012015ZTHE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 485CONTINUES.SUMMARY...SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH FAST-MOVING TSTMSAND POSSIBLY BRIEF TORNADO CIRCULATIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERNPARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER MI...AND PERHAPS EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OFTHE UPPER PENINSULA. A NARROW SQUALL LINE WILL ALSO PROGRESS ACROSSSOUTH-CENTRAL LOWER MI WITH AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREATDEVELOPING EAST INTO SOUTHEAST LOWER MI THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.DISCUSSION...BROKEN PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE HAS DEVELOPED ACROSSMUCH OF CENTRAL LOWER MI THIS AFTERNOON. EMBEDDED SUPERCELLSTRUCTURES ASSOCIATED WITH BREAKS IN THE LINE HAVE EXHIBITEDOCCASIONAL STRONGER LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS IN PARTS OF KALKASKA ANDCRAWFORD COUNTIES IN THE NRN LOWER PENINSULA. IN ADDITION TOISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO POTENTIAL WITH THESE STORMS...OTHER STRONGERSEGMENTS WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE LINE COULD PRODUCE WINDS GUSTS TONEAR SEVERE LEVELS AS THE ENTIRE SQUALL LINE MOVES ACROSS THE RESTOF NORTHERN LOWER MI OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WEAKEN WITH SRN EXTENTACROSS SRN LOWER MI. HOWEVER...SUPPORTIVE LARGE SCALE FORCING FORASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH MID/UPPER TROUGH AND 50-60KT MID-LEVEL WINDMAX EJECTING ACROSS LAKE MI ATTM...AND A MAXIMUM IN DIURNALINSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO THE DEVELOPMENTOF A NARROW CONVECTIVE LINE. THE MOST ORGANIZED STRUCTURE WITHINTHIS PORTION OF THE LINE WAS MOVING FROM NORTHWEST GRATIOT ANDEASTERN ISABELLA COUNTIES INTO MIDLAND COUNTY NOW. KMOP...MT.PLEASANT ASOS...NEAR THE APEX OF THE SMALL-SCALE BOWING SEGMENT OFCONVECTION...RECENTLY REPORTED A GUST NEAR 30KT. THE REMAINDER OFTHE CONVECTIVE LINE TO THE SOUTH APPEARS LESS ORGANIZED/INTENSE ANDA WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED IF STORMS CONTINUE TO EXHIBITMARGINAL/TRANSIENT STRUCTURE WHERE DEEP SHEAR AND FORCING WEAKENWITH SOUTHERN EXTENT...CARBIN/HART.. 09/01/2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 1, 2014 Share Posted September 1, 2014 I am pretty certain both of those tornado warnings have tornadoes especially the one in Cheboygon County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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