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2014-15 winter outlook


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I'll take a lot of 2 and 3 inch snow storms, too. But we have not had a big one around here in a while.

 

Brick or anyone,

 Back to being serious. How often has RDU received an individual event (not season total) that was 6"+? Once every ~how many years? This will help me put it into perspective. How many times has RDU gotten a single storm with 6"+ since, say, 1980 or better yet, since, say 1970 or even earlier? My wild guess is about once every 3 years although I suppose about once every two or four years wouldn't be shocking.

 For comparison, I know KATL has gotten a 3.5"+ SN and/or IP event about once every 3.5 years. TIA!

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Brick or anyone,

 Back to being serious. How often has RDU received an individual event (not season total) that was 6"+? Once every ~how many years? This will help me put it into perspective. How many times has RDU gotten a single storm with 6"+ since, say, 1980 or better yet, since, say 1970 or even earlier? My wild guess is about once every 3 years although I suppose about once every two or four years wouldn't be shocking.

 For comparison, I know KATL has gotten a 3.5"+ SN and/or IP event about once every 3.5 years. TIA!

 

Your right, RDU averages a 6"+ snow event about every 3 years, and averages 10"+ over the season every 3 years too.  Last 6"+ snow event was Dec 2010, so we are due.  And the last 10"+ season was 2004 so we are super due for that.  In fact 11 years and counting between 10"+ seasons is the longest streak going back over 100 years.  Previous longest streak over the past 100 years was 7 which happened in the terrible 90's and before that it was back in the 50's.

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Your right, RDU averages a 6"+ snow event about every 3 years, and averages 10"+ over the season every 3 years too.  Last 6"+ snow event was Dec 2010, so we are due.  And the last 10"+ season was 2004 so we are super due for that.  In fact 11 years and counting between 10"+ seasons is the longest streak going back over 100 years.  Previous longest streak over the past 100 years was 7 which happened in the terrible 90's and before that it was back in the 50's.

 

We are due, and I think it's going to happen this winter. The law of averages has to catch up with us.

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Your right, RDU averages a 6"+ snow event about every 3 years, and averages 10"+ over the season every 3 years too.  Last 6"+ snow event was Dec 2010, so we are due.  And the last 10"+ season was 2004 so we are super due for that.  In fact 11 years and counting between 10"+ seasons is the longest streak going back over 100 years.  Previous longest streak over the past 100 years was 7 which happened in the terrible 90's and before that it was back in the 50's.

 

I looked at the daily totals going back to 1970, and I counted 12 events 5.5 or higher (though I might have missed one).  That would put us at a 6"+ event every 3.58 years.  I'm sure your research is much better than my eyeballing, but we're in the same ballpark.  Anyway, we'll break the streak this year for sure.

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Larry, I did a basic analysis of the storms you listed. A few things stand out. Here's the breakdown of the indices on storm day:

 

post-2035-0-78842100-1412872824_thumb.gi

 

There are 3 atypical storm (3/09, 3/93, 1/62). The 93 storm was one for the ages. I'm not sure analyzing that is worth much. Very explosive setup that we can only hope to see again.

 

Here's the h5 composite for the entire sample:

 

post-2035-0-41101500-1412872973_thumb.gi

 

Composite for the "normal" storms:

 

post-2035-0-77590500-1412873062_thumb.gi

 

 

Composite for the atypical storms:

 

post-2035-0-83679300-1412873110_thumb.gi

 

 

The atypical storms are powderkeg setups. Really not worth go over much on those. If we see anything like that being modeled anytime in the next 10 years we can discuss. LOL

 

A few things stand out in the numerical data and composite for more normal types of events. Numerically, the NAO isn't that important other than you don't want it too positive. That's a no brainer. But it also appears that you don't want it too negative either. That surprised me a little considering the latitude. I did find a connection with the behavior of the nao and I'll go over that shortly. 

 

The PNA as expected is neutral or positive with all typical storms. Nothing worth discussing there. We know a -pna sucks for big storms almost every time. 

 

Just like at the MA latitude, the state of the AO appears to be the most important index. The averages show this pretty well. Take out the atypical storms and it really shows up. There are 3 storms where the ao appears nearly neutral on the storm day but they are all on the heels of a significant to very significant blocking period. Is there a connection with storms in the south during the relaxation of a -ao? I'm not really sure. Sample is too small but it was pretty pronounced on 3 of the storms so it's worth considering in the future when tracking a threat. 

 

The h5 composite for the typical events showed a couple things. Just like up here, you want to see a 50/50'ish when tracking a larger threat. Shows up on the mean pretty easily but further south then where my region likes to see it. Makes complete sense.

 

Take a look at the height anomaly just east of Iceland. Pretty prominent. I generally don't look in that area on the model runs but maybe I should look harder in the future. Ridging up in AK and near Iceland would do a good job driving cold down your way and the composite highlights that pretty well. I'm not really sure what it means but I didn't expect the highest height anomaly on the composite to be there. Intriguing if nothing else. 

 

When I took a look at the NAO behavior and 10" storms in DC a couple weeks ago it was pretty stark that the behavior has more importance than the numerical value (except for +1 and above). Phase changes and activity seem like a better thing to track than the # itself. 

 

Here's some graphs of the NAO for typical storms. They are 14 day graphs with storm day on the 7 of each.

 

2/26/52:

 

post-2035-0-24526500-1412874274_thumb.gi

 

3/11/60

 

post-2035-0-04877600-1412874306_thumb.gi

 

1/12/82

 

post-2035-0-93985300-1412874335_thumb.gi

 

3/24/83

 

post-2035-0-55184800-1412874361_thumb.gi

 

1/22/87

 

post-2035-0-35292100-1412874391_thumb.gi

 

 

1/18/92

 

post-2035-0-08331000-1412874411_thumb.gi

 

 

1/11/09

 

post-2035-0-06183500-1412874451_thumb.gi

 

2/12/10

 

post-2035-0-55983100-1412874483_thumb.gi

 

 

Only one of the storms had a solid and stable -nao. The other ones are closer to neutral but active. 

 

If I lived down your way I would be rooting for as much -AO time as I could get during the season and not worry as much about the NAO. If a threat appeared I would watch the NAO for activity and phase changes in concert with the threat. It seems there is a bias for storms coming on the relaxation of the ao/nao but again, very small sample size. Can't overthink it. Each storm is unique. 

 

I didn't double check my data so if there are errors let me know. 

 

 

 

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I looked at the daily totals going back to 1970, and I counted 12 events 5.5 or higher (though I might have missed one).  That would put us at a 6"+ event every 3.58 years.  I'm sure your research is much better than my eyeballing, but we're in the same ballpark.  Anyway, we'll break the streak this year for sure.

 

That's about right for that period.   The period between 1970-2014 has a couple of long stretches that sucked big time…the 90's and 2005-2013.  In fact the 10 year average from 2005-2014 is almost as bad as what we saw in the 90's.  The 60's were a great decade.

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“Single” best “RDU” storm for each year (my opinion of course):

From http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rah/events/

2013 - 2014(same storm)

http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20140213/accum.20140213.gif

http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20140213/accum.freezing.20140213.gif

2012 – 2013(bad year)

http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20130216/accum.20130216.gif

2011 – 2012(bad year)

http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.20120219.gif

2010 – 2011

http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20101226/

2009 – 2010

http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20100129/

2008 – 2009

http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20090120/accum.20090120.gif

2007 – 2008(bad year)

http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20080119/

2006 – 2007(bad year)

http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20070118/

2005 – 2006(very bad year)

http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.freezing.20051215.gif

2004 – 2005(bad year lots of very small event like this one)

http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.20050130.gif

2003 – 2004

http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.20040227.gif

2002 – 2003

http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20021204/

http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20020102/

2000 – 2001

http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20001119/

1999 – 2000 (maybe this is cherry picking, but…)

http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20000125/

 

Man, that stretch from 2004 to 2008 was horrible. 

 

I think we get something like the Jan 2-3, 2002 storm this winter. That or something like the Dec 25-26, 2010 event would be awesome.

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So, Falls' post has made me want to do the same thing for HKY.  These are the storms that appear to have had the greatest impact on the Hickory area since the year 2000.  The greatest total for any single event is approximately 8 inches.  The greatest single events by month fall out this way:

 

December:  3 events

January:  6 events

February:  5 events

March:  1 event

 

So, the months of January and February are about equally likely to produce the single greatest winter event for any given winter here in the Hickory area.

 

2013-2014:  ~8 inches snow (Febhttp://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20140213/accum.20140213.gif

 

2012-2013:  ~1 inch snow (Febhttp://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20130216/accum.20130216.gif

 

2011-2012:  trace snow (Febhttp://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.20120219.gif

 

2010-2011:  ~7 inches snow (Dechttp://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20101226/

 

2009-2010:  ~8 inches snow (Janhttp://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20100129/

                  ~8 inches snow (Dechttp://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20091218/

 

2008-2009:  ~6 inches snow (Marhttp://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20090302/

 

2007-2008:  ~4 inches snow (Janhttp://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20080117/

 

2006-2007:  ~1 inch snow (Febhttp://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20070201/

 

2005-2006:  ~0.5 inch ice (Dechttp://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.freezing.20051215.gif

 

2004-2005:  ~2 inches snow and ~0.25 inch ice (Janhttp://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.20050130.gif

 

2003-2004:  ~3 inches snow (Janhttp://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.20040125.gif

 

2002-2003:  ~8 inches snow (Janhttp://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20030123/

 

2001-2002:  ~3 inches snow (Janhttp://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20030123/

 

2000-2001:  ~2 inches snow (Febhttp://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20010222/

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Just like at the MA latitude, the state of the AO appears to be the most important index. The averages show this pretty well. Take out the atypical storms and it really shows up. There are 3 storms where the ao appears nearly neutral on the storm day but they are all on the heels of a significant to very significant blocking period. Is there a connection with storms in the south during the relaxation of a -ao? I'm not really sure. Sample is too small but it was pretty pronounced on 3 of the storms so it's worth considering in the future when tracking a threat. 

 

The h5 composite for the typical events showed a couple things. Just like up here, you want to see a 50/50'ish when tracking a larger threat. Shows up on the mean pretty easily but further south then where my region likes to see it. Makes complete sense.

 

Very nice work Bob.  Yep, the farther south 50/50 anomaly is as important as any feature I'd say...for suppressing the southern stream storm track and holding in the cold air.  Sometimes it's in the form of a -NAO block, and sometimes in the form of an extended trough in E Canada down into the NE.  For the NAO on the 'normal' composite, it's possible that the NAO anomalies are more west based in the days prior to the storm, transitioning to more of an east based look on the day of the storm.

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An interpretation of the latest Euro model forecast through the winter...

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/forecast-model-update-into-the-winter/35382077

Looks like a transition to winter occurs toward the new year and then it looks almost "ideal".  I'd take this and be happy if it occurred this way.

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We are due, and I think it's going to happen this winter. The law of averages has to catch up with us.

 

CR/Pack, thks for the RDU stats.

 

Brick, if you are nice & allow ATL to have a warm Oct., I think your chances at a big snow would be higher. I hope you'll consider.

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The one thing that can help us this winter, and we can actually see, is the snow cover buildup over the Northern Hemisphere(especially Siberia). Currently snow cover is looking good. I would like to see more over the Bearing land areas (E. Siberia - Alaska), but it looks like there will be storms in those areas during the next week.  

 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/ims/

 

N. America snow accumulations at hour 162

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=10&model_dd=10&model_init_hh=06&fhour=162&parameter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

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The one thing that can help us this winter, and we can actually see, is the snow cover buildup over the Northern Hemisphere(especially Siberia). Currently snow cover is looking good. I would like to see more over the Bearing land areas (E. Siberia - Alaska), but it looks like there will be storms in those areas during the next week.  

 

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/ims/

 

N. America snow accumulations at hour 162

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=10&model_dd=10&model_init_hh=06&fhour=162&parameter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

 

Yep, some nice gains over the last 24 in Siberia.

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I've been eyeballing the CFS daily and have noticed the recent trend of cooling and wetting for the conus for the DJF period.  This is probably just noise, and i'm sure it will bounce around a lot more, but it's at least good to see it trending in the right direction.

 

For the DJF period, below are the E1 and E3 temp and precip maps for North America.

 

E1 Temps:

 

post-987-0-85242600-1412945521_thumb.gif

 

E3 Temps (notice the cooling trend for North America as a whole):

 

post-987-0-37501700-1412945549_thumb.gif

 

E1 Precip:

 

post-987-0-50152500-1412945568_thumb.gif

 

E3 Precip (notice the increased signal for above average precip across the southern US):

 

post-987-0-11251500-1412945609_thumb.gif

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