IsentropicLift Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 How do you know I was talking about you? Just a hunch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 Not sure why. All the good models have activity. Today is one of those days that can surprise many. We need the SPC to stop issueing the moderate risks etc. its the equivelant of henry marguisity hopping on a snowstorm, the kiss of death literally slight risk/see text is the honey hole! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 Of course, but with a persistent trough in the Great lakes region, I would say the odds are low this year of seeing anything sustained for heat/humidity. With LGA currently running at 77.3 degrees in July, the odds of any sustained heat coming in August is pretty slim. The last 5 times LGA averaged 75.9-77.9 in July there were only 3-7 90 degree days in August. August...90 degree days...July average temperature 2007...7.....77.8 2004...2.....75.9 2003...5.....77.4 1997...3.....77.1 1990...3.....77.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 Hope you're kidding. We've seen temps well into the 90s right through the first half of September. It's like calling winter over on January 30th. I didn't say we wouldn't see anymore 90s. I said the opportunities will start to dwindle based on the pattern we've been in that's not forecast to change very much. Bluewaves stats back this up to some degree and I'm referring to widespread 90F+ readings which have been rare thus far. I'm sure there will be days where the hotter spots hit 90 while others miss the mark but how many more times will we see a region wide 90+ day/s with the pattern we've been in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 23, 2014 Author Share Posted July 23, 2014 With LGA currently running at 77.3 degrees in July, the odds of any sustained heat coming in August is pretty slim. The last 5 times LGA averaged 75.9-77.9 in July there were only 3-7 90 degree days in August. August...90 degree days...July average temperature 2007...7.....77.8 2004...2.....75.9 2003...5.....77.4 1997...3.....77.1 1990...3.....77.1 Great stats bluewave. How did 2001 and 98 fit in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 23, 2014 Author Share Posted July 23, 2014 LGA 90s .. departure 2001: 6 (+3.5) 1998: 3 (+1.5) 2007...7.....77.8 (+0.8) 2004...2.....75.9 (-0.9) 2003...5.....77.4 (+1.8) 1997...3.....77.1 (-1.9) 1990...3.....77.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 We lacking shear and the cold front timing looks too late for stronger storms near the coast today. However, decent MLCAPE and lapse rates should at least support pulsating t-storms with strong winds and some hail, NW of NYC by this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 88/76 here. Going to be close for a 90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 I didn't say we wouldn't see anymore 90s. I said the opportunities will start to dwindle based on the pattern we've been in that's not forecast to change very much. Bluewaves stats back this up to some degree and I'm referring to widespread 90F+ readings which have been rare thus far. I'm sure there will be days where the hotter spots hit 90 while others miss the mark but how many more times will we see a region wide 90+ day/s with the pattern we've been in. I agree that the overall pattern should continue to be one that promotes intervals / transient bursts of 90F+ heat and generally no prolonged heat waves. I could definitely see stretches of 3 consecutive 90+ days in August, though I believe it will be difficult to string together more than 3 in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 Great stats bluewave. How did 2001 and 98 fit in? I didn't use July 2001 since LGA was 75.1 and 1998 was 78.0. Also left out 2009 which was 74.5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 23, 2014 Author Share Posted July 23, 2014 I didn't use July 2001 since LGA was 75.1 and 1998 was 78.0. Also left out 2009 which was 74.5. Good stuff. I think other than 2001 its tough to find summers that were near normal or below in July that featured hot Augusts. There is always a first I guess but I think we continue with +1- +1.5 type of stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 23, 2014 Author Share Posted July 23, 2014 I agree that the overall pattern should continue to be one that promotes intervals / transient bursts of 90F+ heat and generally no prolonged heat waves. I could definitely see stretches of 3 consecutive 90+ days in August, though I believe it will be difficult to string together more than 3 in a row. Still indications after the trough lifts out jul 30th that on/around 8/1 a warm and deep southerly flow develops as the WAR expands west. Looks warm and humid 8/1 - 8/6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 A couple of Mets have been saying this and now DT has joined the train: ... put a fork in the summer with respect to any *** SUSTAINED ** Heat .. (temps above 92) for the REST of the Summer of 2014... done over kaput NOT gonna happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 A couple of Mets have been saying this and now DT has joined the train: ... put a fork in the summer with respect to any *** SUSTAINED ** Heat .. (temps above 92) for the REST of the Summer of 2014... done over kaput NOT gonna happen That's a really dumb thing to say with only half the summer over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 That's a really dumb thing to say with only half the summer over. We're past the midpoint of met summer which was 7/15. Sustained 90's becomes tough after 8/10 or so, so I can see why he's saying that. Plus seasonal trend has been for no heat...it's not really a bold statement at all. As some one noted above, hard to get a hot August after an average June/July Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 We're past the midpoint of met summer which was 7/15. Sustained 90's becomes tough after 8/10 or so, so I can see why he's saying that. Plus seasonal trend has been for no heat...it's not really a bold statement at all. As some one noted above, hard to get a hot August after an average June/July We've had heat waves past Labor Day before. It's like cancelling winter on Groundhog's Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 We've had heat waves past Labor Day before. It's like cancelling winter on Groundhog's Day. Sure we have, but most of them have been with hotter summers. Doesn't mean we can't get one this year, but based on past history it's unlikely especially with a persistent trough in the eastern US on the flip side if it's been warm and dry in winter going into early Feb, it's highly unlikely (outside of 06-07) to suddenly flip to cold/snow. I remember in winters 01-02 and 11-12 there were some that held on way too long.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 HRRR looking pretty good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 Good stuff. I think other than 2001 its tough to find summers that were near normal or below in July that featured hot Augusts. There is always a first I guess but I think we continue with +1- +1.5 type of stuff. The interesting thing about 2001 is that although July was cool at -1.3, there was a hot 96/82 LGA degree day later in the month. There was also another hint that the summer could produce some heat as June averaged +3.3 at LGA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 HRRR looking pretty good Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 Yes Looks like crap! paul since this isnt being talked about as a big event watch these storms overproduce Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 That's a really dumb thing to say with only half the summer over. He explains his reasoning. Again, not the only met saying this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 Yes What direction are the storms moving on that map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 23, 2014 Author Share Posted July 23, 2014 A couple of Mets have been saying this and now DT has joined the train: ... put a fork in the summer with respect to any *** SUSTAINED ** Heat .. (temps above 92) for the REST of the Summer of 2014... done over kaput NOT gonna happen For where? DC, Baltimore, Philly, NJ NYC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 the latest euro has a pig of a ridge retrogressing west toward day 10. so does the gfes starting around 180 hrs http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_12z/ensloopmref.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 89.5 here, so now my 8th day of 90F+ for the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 23, 2014 Author Share Posted July 23, 2014 3PM Roundup TEB: 90 NYC: 85 EWR: 90 LGA: 88 JFK: 83 ISP: 84 BLM: 84 New Brnswick: 90 TTN: 89 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 23, 2014 Author Share Posted July 23, 2014 the latest euro has a pig of a ridge retrogressing west toward day 10. so does the gfes starting around 180 hrs http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_12z/ensloopmref.html various guidance has been signaling this for the last few days. The period 8/1 - 8/6 looks warm and very humid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 23, 2014 Share Posted July 23, 2014 the latest euro has a pig of a ridge retrogressing west toward day 10. so does the gfes starting around 180 hrs http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_12z/ensloopmref.html if this were winter, you would ridicule someone for discussing a day 10 map. I'll believe it when I see it, that trough in the GL has been reloading week after week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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