andyhb Posted June 26, 2014 Share Posted June 26, 2014 This was posted over in the E Pac tropical thread, but the MJO is going through a very similar pattern to what it was back in April leading up to the outbreak at the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 26, 2014 Share Posted June 26, 2014 ECMWF dewpoints look a bit lower than the GFS. Either way, low level moisture shouldn't be an issue. Monday afternoon/evening gets into 84 hour NAM range tomorrow. That might be good for a laugh or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 26, 2014 Author Share Posted June 26, 2014 ECMWF dewpoints look a bit lower than the GFS. Either way, low level moisture shouldn't be an issue. Monday afternoon/evening gets into 84 hour NAM range tomorrow. That might be good for a laugh or two. Can almost bank on it being too low with dew points. GFS is usually much better in these summer events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 26, 2014 Share Posted June 26, 2014 It was a joke for crying out loud. Hence my use of lol, I realized the RIP was a joke, but his literal look at the soundings I think added to his use of hyperbole, and he didn't back away from his relative certainty of the situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 26, 2014 Share Posted June 26, 2014 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 26, 2014 Share Posted June 26, 2014 Hence my use of lol, I realized the RIP was a joke, but his literal look at the soundings I think added to his use of hyperbole, and he didn't back away from his relative certainty of the situation. Look, I am going to be absolutely blunt about this, we aren't going to have another severe thread of you downplaying without reasoning. So either find some reasoning or stop polluting the thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 26, 2014 Share Posted June 26, 2014 Can almost bank on it being too low with dew points. GFS is usually much better in these summer events. Yeah, NAM is pretty terrible with respect to low level moisture, also it will probably have the low level wind field too veered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 26, 2014 Share Posted June 26, 2014 Look, I am going to be absolutely blunt about this, we aren't going to have another severe thread of you downplaying without reasoning. So either find some reasoning or stop polluting the thread. I wasn't downplaying, I was jokingly pointing out Alek's tongue in cheek overplay, and it gets turned into a big argument when I didn't intend it to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 26, 2014 Share Posted June 26, 2014 I wasn't downplaying, I was jokingly pointing out Alek's tongue in cheek overplay, and it gets turned into a big argument when I didn't intend it to. It reads differently but if that is the case then okay. Note. I don't care if you are going to downplay if you come with reasoning, no one is here to stop others from posting if they aren't just wishcasting/downplaying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted June 26, 2014 Share Posted June 26, 2014 Not much to add, but this is definitely one of the better setups I've seen around here in some time. (Can't recall seeing pennants through virtually the entire troposphere.) I'll be working Monday so things will probably the hitting the fan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 26, 2014 Share Posted June 26, 2014 This Sunday-Monday system really means business. These systems coming through with CAPE/shear profiles that we usually see capped due to EML advection haven't been capped, and it's been something else. Sunday looks really bad for IA/MN. Monday will probably be modulated by what happens overnight Sunday night but could be even worse if the boundaries lay out right and IL/WI/IN have time to destabilize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 26, 2014 Share Posted June 26, 2014 This Sunday-Monday system really means business. These systems coming through with CAPE/shear profiles that we usually see capped due to EML advection haven't been capped, and it's been something else. Sunday looks really bad for IA/MN. Monday will probably be modulated by what happens overnight Sunday night but could be even worse if the boundaries lay out right and IL/WI/IN have time to destabilize. Which the 18z GFS illustrates nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted June 26, 2014 Share Posted June 26, 2014 Which the 18z GFS illustrates nicely. 12z vs 18z CAPE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 26, 2014 Share Posted June 26, 2014 18Z is ridiculously fast with the vort max, the previous 3 runs have it the same place at 18z Monday where as the 18z GFS has it about 6-9 hours faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 26, 2014 Share Posted June 26, 2014 There is definitely a convective feedback issue at 500mb/700mb on Monday, you can clearly see it in the VV fields. 500mb: 700mb: Either the GFS is predicting a nuke to explode in IA Monday, or more likely the model is suffering convective feedback in a very obvious form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted June 27, 2014 Share Posted June 27, 2014 Looks like 00z GFS still has convective feedback. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 27, 2014 Share Posted June 27, 2014 Maybe make the 28th the start date now that the new day 2 has the western parts of the subforum in a slight risk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 27, 2014 Share Posted June 27, 2014 Looks like 00z GFS still has convective feedback. 00z GFS was actually tossed by WPC in favour of the NAM (and Euro) based on run to run continuity problems, which is saying something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted June 27, 2014 Share Posted June 27, 2014 6z GFS still has that feedback issue, I see. What's causing that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 27, 2014 Share Posted June 27, 2014 NAM looking very linear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 27, 2014 Share Posted June 27, 2014 No day 4 risk area due to uncertainty with how Sunday evolves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted June 27, 2014 Share Posted June 27, 2014 GFS still doing that weird ring thing on VV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 27, 2014 Author Share Posted June 27, 2014 It doesn't look as bad though and south of 88 really gets juicy with plenty of shear and even slightly backed winds at the sfc east of DVN Monday afternoon. The most potent of the last several runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 27, 2014 Share Posted June 27, 2014 I think even after transition to more linear mode (assuming it occurs), the embedded tornado threat is going to be considerable with these kind of instability/shear parameters in place, and some of them could be strong. Northern extent of all of this is uncertain and I have less confidence than yesterday in that regard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 27, 2014 Author Share Posted June 27, 2014 Just south of DVN at 21z Monday on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 27, 2014 Share Posted June 27, 2014 18z GFS is coming in with some very impressive soundings on Monday in E IA and N/Central IL. It allows more growth/maturing of the second vort max in the trough as the lead one lifts towards Hudson's Bay, leading to stronger LLJ amplification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 27, 2014 Share Posted June 27, 2014 18z GFS waited until 18z Monday to have feedback issues, but with it waiting that long we ended up with better parameters this run than previous runs. Basically once the GFS shakes off the feedback issues I think we will revert back to a better potential for Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 27, 2014 Author Share Posted June 27, 2014 Really nice crossovers in and around the DVN area by mid-late afternoon on Monday on this run. Don't know about storm mode but GFS continues to say a nasty bow of some sort it looks like moving ESE along the north end of the instability gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Doctor Posted June 27, 2014 Share Posted June 27, 2014 The CIPS website has 6/18/2010 (which featured two severe MCSs in like an eight hour period for Northern Illinois) as the top analog for Monday. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20100618 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted June 27, 2014 Share Posted June 27, 2014 The CIPS website has 6/18/2010 (which featured two severe MCSs in like an eight hour period for Northern Illinois) as the top analog for Monday. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20100618 And the day before was a pretty big tornado day further N/W of the area too. I like how IL/IA & parts of WI look Monday and I'm definitely interested in where I'll be (LSE) Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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