A-L-E-K Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 that segment is heading right for Geos. there's good instability over NE IL and we'll have the boundary around all afternoon. So this isn't a sure fire miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 bonus lol @ the 12z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 bonus lol @ the 12z NAM Haha. Yeah a little off! Segment just west and a little south of Waukesha looks the most intense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 wisconsinwx really cashing in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 fwiw, southern end of the line is hanging tough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Yeah it is. Nice uptick with the last few scans. Starting to cloud over here in Lisle. fwiw, southern end of the line is hanging tough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 wisconsinwx really cashing in Yeah, the juice has been loose for awhile now. Surprised they only issued a special weather statement for the line, given the kink that is apparent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 30% wind corridor now from Chicago area, over through Nrn IN, Lower MI, Nrn OH, and into parts of PA. We'll see what happens today. as said above, capping has been a problem... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 That WI/IL squall line definitely has derecho potential (bulk shear of 40-50kts, anchored with a strong MCV/cold pool, tight instability gradient and steep mid-level lapse rates). APX calls it a derecho wannabe, lol. Of course, potential and realization are two different things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Yeah, the juice has been loose for awhile now. Surprised they only issued a special weather statement for the line, given the kink that is apparent. It's probably still elevated, given that sufficiently SB instability is still lacking at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 WI/IL has sustained long enough (gotten over the diurnal min hump) that we'll probably see it re-intensify further east as it heads ese out of southwest MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 That WI/IL squall line definitely has derecho potential (bulk shear of 40-50kts, anchored with a strong MCV/cold pool, tight instability gradient and steep mid-level lapse rates). Of course, potential and realization are two different things. If it can bust out of some of the CIN in north central IL, I'd keep an eye on it. Getting pretty unstable to its east already (2500-3000 SBCAPE, 2000 MLCAPE). Temp of 84 w/ a 74 degree dew point in NWOH already... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Got pretty windy here in Racine. Strong enough to rip off some tree leaves and blow loose objects around. Now pouring rain - not much thunder though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MadTown Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Footage of the Verona WI tornado, pretty crazy stuff video Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 That storm over Lake MI heading toward MKG looks wicked... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 That storm over Lake MI heading toward MKG looks wicked... Looks great to me too, too bad it will probably miss me 25 miles south, the HRRR shows a lot of 40-50kt wind gusts along it as it continues on going mostly east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Mean looking sky out there. Line is really holding it's own as it barrels through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Need to get this cloud debris out ASAP. Still in the low 80s though so hopefully we can get something out of this line later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Doctor Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 The precip shield is weakening behind the southern portion of the line; maybe we can get some sun and resurrect some sort of storm threat today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Outflow starting to surge out ahead of the Illinois line. I wouldn't expect a whole lot of reintensification at this point at least for areas downstream of that portion of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Footage of the Verona WI tornado, pretty crazy stuff video Says the video is private. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 The precip shield is weakening behind the southern portion of the line; maybe we can get some sun and resurrect some sort of storm threat today Visible satellite suggests that is likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Fair conditions already reported in NW IL, so we may get a chance to recharge the system before this afternoon and evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Getting very unstable out ahead of this line. 3500-4000 SBCAPE and 2500-3000 MLCAPE draped over N. central IN and NW OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 I like my chances with that line, instability is lifting northeast out ahead of it with a huge pool better instability right along the border poised to continue to lift northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Yeah NE IN/ Southern MI and NW Ohio better gear up for this one. Classic setup for a derecho around here once this thing gets off Lake Michigan and explodes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 no thunder during the actual squal line but we just had a few bight flashes/bangs in the wake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 More cells have developed out ahead of the line now in parts of Northern IN and Southern Michigan, one went warned after crossing into S. MI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 More cells have developed out ahead of the line now in parts of Northern IN and Southern Michigan, one went warned after crossing into S. MI Yeah, as soon as I posted the line started to weaken but these individual cells ahead of it are looking very strong, I would rather have supercells anyways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Yeah, as soon as I posted the line started to weaken but these individual cells ahead of it are looking very strong, I would rather have supercells anyways they'll be quickly absorbed into a WAA wing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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