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June 16-25 Severe threat


snowlover2

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That WI/IL squall line definitely has derecho potential (bulk shear of 40-50kts, anchored with a strong MCV/cold pool, tight instability gradient and steep mid-level lapse rates).

 

APX calls it a derecho wannabe, lol.

 

Of course, potential and realization are two different things. 

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Yeah, the juice has been loose for awhile now.  Surprised they only issued a special weather statement for the line, given the kink that is apparent.

 

It's probably still elevated, given that sufficiently SB instability is still lacking at this time.

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That WI/IL squall line definitely has derecho potential (bulk shear of 40-50kts, anchored with a strong MCV/cold pool, tight instability gradient and steep mid-level lapse rates).

 

 

Of course, potential and realization are two different things.

If it can bust out of some of the CIN in north central IL, I'd keep an eye on it. Getting pretty unstable to its east already (2500-3000 SBCAPE, 2000 MLCAPE). Temp of 84 w/ a 74 degree dew point in NWOH already...

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More cells have developed out ahead of the line now in parts of Northern IN and Southern Michigan, one went warned after crossing into S. MI

 

Yeah, as soon as I posted the line started to weaken but these individual cells ahead of it are looking very strong, I would rather have supercells anyways :)

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