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April 28-30th Severe Threat and Flood event potential

mackerel_sky

By mackerel_sky,
in Southeastern States

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downeastnc

downeastnc

Posted
Posted

That cell that worked up north through Pitt Co ran into it that big cell  and almost looks like it occluded the strongest rotation and sent it torwards Tarboro weakening and a newer rotation is taking over due to the merging of the storms and is headed more eastward towards Bethal....

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sparklecity

sparklecity

Posted
Posted

I'm thinking this whole system is underperforming for mby. Been under a flood watch since Monday , and only had a few sprinkles! Don't want tornadoes, but a nice thunderstorm wouldn't be too bad? All local media was touting flooding and 4-6 inches of rain, and we have about a day to get all that rain, and nothing within about 300 miles of here on the radar! Need rain for the garden!

 

Yeah we have had like 10 drops of rain so far.  A couple days ago NAM was spitting out only 1" while GFS was giving us the ridiculous 5-6".  I think the NAM is going to be much closer to the actual totals unless we get some sort of training set up on top of us.  I'm prob going to regret not putting out fertilizer....of course if I did we would be get 10" and wash it all away.

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downeastnc

downeastnc

Posted
Posted

Thats most likey a big low hanging wall cloud that is droping funnels and occasionally a tornado to the ground, the little feature near Falkland is interestign almost like a satellite funnel/tor aroudn the larger parent rotation...also keep a eye on the southern end of the storm approaching Goldsboro.

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NEGa

NEGa

Posted
Posted

Upstate SC has really missed out on any action so far. With it already being so cloudy and the light rain this morning, I don't see a severe threat panning out for us today here.

ditto for n ga.  a complete bust so far - even none wx weenies were talking about how bad it was supposed to be and yet not a drop so far

 

glad that some people had some wild wx to watch (hopefully not too wild in their back yards though)

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Disc

Disc

Posted
Posted
downeastnc, on 29 Apr 2014 - 6:16 PM, said:

LOL thats not hard to do.......small small town most of that area is really rural but still lots of lower income type homes etc all through there.

Yeah I'm definitely not very familiar with the area at all, but just clarifying a couple of posts before that said it might hit them.

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VeronicaCorningstone

VeronicaCorningstone

Posted
Posted

We dodged a bullet here just between Black Creek and Lucama.  I am not sure about damage elsewhere around Wilson, we have heard crazy reports of touchdowns in Black Creek but nothing confirmed as yet.  We had 2 straight hours of naaasty storms though.  There WAS a well defined wall cloud on the first storm (@ 4 p.m.) that I wish I could have gotten a picture of - had a perfect view at my exit on 795 - lots of low scud and possible rotation but honestly, I was just trying to get the hell out of there and get to Wilson to pick up my husband at work and I knew things were gonna get bad fast.  Mostly quarter-sized with some Ping-Pong/golf ball sized hail - and then the torrential rain for 2 straight hours.  Lots of road flooding within the town itself and I'm sure outlying areas also; we heard reports of road closures but thankfully none on our way home on 301 and 117.  

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Solak

Solak

Posted
Posted

I just checked my local point AND zone forecasts, and found it interesting that the wording has changed to drop any mention of severe, wind or hail potential for tomorrow/tomorrow night, although there's pretty strong wording in the afternoon discussion. Emphasis seems to only be on heavy rain. Makes it confusing.

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Brick Tamland

Brick Tamland

Posted
Posted

I just checked my local point AND zone forecasts, and found it interesting that the wording has changed to drop any mention of severe, wind or hail potential for tomorrow/tomorrow night, although there's pretty strong wording in the afternoon discussion. Emphasis seems to only be on heavy rain. Makes it confusing.

I am starting to wonder if they missed this one and should have kept the threat to 95 and east.

Would be funny if this system was hyped more than the one last Friday and the storms from last Friday were worse here.

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thunderwolf

thunderwolf

Posted
Posted

Has the frontal boundary moved north and west? I didn't expect much for us tonight. Maybe tomorrow if the frontal boundary comes this way.

The outlflow boundary from the first line of thunderstorms definitely broke into the CAD wedge here in the Triangle which is why we started to clear out. However, our winds stayed from the north at the surface and we did not have the convergence to create the good convection, so we got a few cumulus clouds. Farther south, the winds have become more southerly and they are starting to see some more storms refiring now. Definitely a very interesting day.

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Brick Tamland

Brick Tamland

Posted
Posted

They didn't really miss it, a few times in the discussions they did mention the wedge holding on longer than forecast, but I think you'll get your fair share of severe weather tomorrow and then some, especially if we get the clearing like we had today on the coast.

Not sure about tomorrow. We might have the clearing but the juice might not be around anymore.

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calculus1

calculus1

Posted
Posted

Stuck in the wedge here in the NW NC piedmont.  I'm beginning to doubt the originally forecasted copious rainfall amounts for my area.  The mountains and foothills received 1-2 inches of rainfall overnight just 20+ miles west of me.  Unless this wedge erodes pretty quickly, I think Hickory is going to be the relative minimum area for precipitation totals for this entire event.  The mountains should get a lot of rainfall and further to the east should also cash in.  There's going to be rain in my backyard, but I don't see the original 3+ inch totals materializing anymore.  I really hope that I'm wrong, but that's my current take on the situation.

 

My take from this morning is still looking pretty good.  We never got out of the wedge here today.  High temp IMBY was 56 F and I have received a grand total of 0.12 inch of rainfall since midnight.  Radar is absolutely dead right now too for the western half of NC.

 

The 850mb moisture transport shows that the highway is open from the gulf:

 

Ob6kuQL.png

 

 

But, the precipitable water is definitely stronger to the east:

 

pPBuRXm.png

 

 

I'm beginning to wonder if I'll even measure a storm total one inch of rainfall from this event.  The weekend prognostications called for quite the deluge over WNC, but that is proving to be very wrong so far.  It could all change tonight and tomorrow, I suppose, but this wedge has been very unpredictable so far.  Many weather forecasters and sites have busted pretty low on totals so far.  Again, the event is not over yet, and things could change, but I'm not too optimistic on awesome rainfall totals any more.

 

However, the cool conditions today have been quite awesome.  I'm wearing a hoodie tonight.  On April 29.  At 7:30 PM.  And, it's comfortable.  That's a win in my book.  Soon enough the dregs of summer will arrive and create non-stop humidity.  I'm enjoying the brisk weather, every minute of it!  :shiver:

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