snowwors2 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 You know? I was going to post something about this earlier. David Murphy is always conservative on storms. Almost LOL conservative. I cannot believe how terrible David Murphy is… Watching a noon recording and he just said "some" of the "long-range" models are calling for "some" snow… It's a sin what he gets paid for that kind of dribble!!! He's more like that terrible Mrs. fix it on channel 6… He's Mr. fix-it always handing out obvious stupid advice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 JB posted he was "shaken" by the Euro but not changing his thoughts....believes this needs to come north based on coming though center of country and the warm water off the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I cannot believe how terrible David Murphy is… Watching a noon recording and he just said "some" of the "long-range" models are calling for "some" snow… It's a sin what he gets paid for that kind of dribble!!! He's more like that terrible Mrs. fix it on channel 6… He's Mr. fix-it always handing out obvious stupid advice! I remember David Murphy mentioning a couple days before a really big storm there was a chance of flurries yeah he is the all time worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Has Steve D voiced any thoughts yet...haven't read anything yet from NJNYPA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 New update from EPA WEATHER http://epawaweather.com/2016/01/19/special-storm-update/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 WMFZ met department is underated Ed Hannah does a great job with smaller budget. Gives solid if simplified reasoning in his forecsts. Lol my mom rates here weather broadcasters based off of their physical appearance. No 11 pm news goes by where she can stay quiet during the forecast about cecily's "awful wardrobe." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Steve D's Storm Impact Map https://nynjpaweather.com/public/2016/01/20/storm-impacts-forecast-for-january-23-24-2016/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 JB sees this as passing inside Hatteras and about 14 miles east of VA Beach Totals DC -18-30 PHL -15-25 NYC - 12-18 Bos - 10-14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 EPAWA first call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UKStormFan Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Any TV live streams or internet forecasts for this event please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 24, 2016 Share Posted January 24, 2016 JB telling folks why they never wavered on the WB forecast with his old school forecasting techniques and lack of reliance on models. Also warning folks to not write off the event toward Friday this week. Keeps talking that warm water is your foe early in winter but your friend later in winter. Went on to talk about he expects a relaxation of the pattern to warmer but that the cold will once again be coming in February (European week 2 may start warm and turn colder than snow) Another "big ticket" event is likely to happen in his opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 JB seems to think he is on a roll calling out the Euro as not strong enough with what he terms the likely phasing on the East Coast later this week....calls out the GFS with it's normal bias having nothing....says not a blizzard but a 6-12 inch storm for some in the Northeast. I saw it mentioned in today's late day AFD from Mount Holly but it looks like they see an equal chance of it staying off shore and maybe not even being snow....could be another interesting week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Larry Cosgrove (great ex-Philly met) talking about an impressive winter set up through the 3rd week of March- with at least one more major snowstorm and 3 more arctic blast into the northeast.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigtenfan Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Larry Cosgrove (great ex-Philly met) talking about an impressive winter set up through the 3rd week of March- with at least one more major snowstorm and 3 more arctic blast into the northeast.... I will never forget Larry Cosrove being the first to see the 1996 blizzard a week ahead of time when he was on channel 17. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 I will never forget Larry Cosrove being the first to see the 1996 blizzard a week ahead of time when he was on channel 17. Ahhh yes you struck a cord now I remember him you are so right he did!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet-Phase Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 I have to give JB kudos for putting out his forecast on snow amounts on this past blizzard last Sunday and pretty much nailed it from DC to Boston without the usual model waffling that most mets I see do (and did for this one). He stuck with his ideas and explained why he thought the models were incorrect and would trend north. Larry Cosgrave is another met that I really respect too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Wow, calling for two 12"+ storms sure is gutsy. Glenn is halfway there! :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 I have to give JB kudos for putting out his forecast on snow amounts on this past blizzard last Sunday and pretty much nailed it from DC to Boston without the usual model waffling that most mets I see do (and did for this one). He stuck with his ideas and explained why he thought the models were incorrect and would trend north. Larry Cosgrave is another met that I really respect too. JB calls for snowpocalypse with every storm so eventually he was bound to hit one. And yes, LC is amazing! Calls it as he sees it and 'usually' he sees it correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 I have to give JB kudos for putting out his forecast on snow amounts on this past blizzard last Sunday and pretty much nailed it from DC to Boston without the usual model waffling that most mets I see do (and did for this one). He stuck with his ideas and explained why he thought the models were incorrect and would trend north. Larry Cosgrave is another met that I really respect too. JB calls for snowpocalypse with every storm so eventually he was bound to hit one. And yes, LC is amazing! Calls it as he sees it and 'usually' he sees it correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 JB more bullish than ever on late week storm - says models are too far east - they will come west. Said nothing like last week's blizzard but a storm with top ends running from 6" at DC to 12" at Boston Ralph - can't say I agree with you.....he no doubt can find a way to see a storm storm but rarely "forecasts" it - when he does he is usually good - his big bias is too high on the north side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 LC posted to my FB this morning to really watch Jan 28-29? I'm not feeling this 'threat'. Flow progressive via kicker riding Canadian border, strung out weak areas of low pressure S and E of OBX, temps marginal at best. Even the one model that showed the threat yesterday (Euro) hardly had precip to West of slp which would mean a track right on the coast to get precip into the big cities IF the system even formed and came North. I'm personally not feeling this one except maybe a coastal grazer in our far Southern zones. Anyone see what LC might be on to or see things differently than myself? I don't even see model support for a hit in our area, though I could be wrong and maybe misreading the pattern? Always looking to learn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 LC posted to my FB this morning to really watch Jan 28-29? I'm not feeling this 'threat'. Flow progressive via kicker riding Canadian border, strung out weak areas of low pressure S and E of OBX, temps marginal at best. Even the one model that showed the threat yesterday (Euro) hardly had precip to West of slp which would mean a track right on the coast to get precip into the big cities IF the system even formed and came North. I'm personally not feeling this one except maybe a coastal grazer in our far Southern zones. Anyone see what LC might be on to or see things differently than myself? I don't even see model support for a hit in our area, though I could be wrong and maybe misreading the pattern? Always looking to learn. Take a look at the Euro ensembles... some hits there. There is room if the northern piece can get dig a little more that the southern energy can get out ahead and phase. May be tough for us NW of the city but some of the ensembles form a stronger storm NW of the mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Agree Anthony....not saying it's a slam dunk but does need to be watched Take a look at the Euro ensembles... some hits there. There is room if the northern piece can get dig a little more that the southern energy can get out ahead and phase. May be tough for us NW of the city but some of the ensembles form a stronger storm NW of the mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Agree Anthony....not saying it's a slam dunk but does need to be watched Nearly all guidance points to this OTS and we are only 78-84 hours out. Next.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Nearly all guidance points to this OTS and we are only 78-84 hours out. Next.... 12z GFS is wide right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Per JB he saw the GFS swing even further out but thinks it is not far from correcting and based on NAM (which he says shows its coming) "As it is , the storm I think is coming is more 3-6 around Dc but for Boston, would beat the blizzard. ( Boston had 8) and its not the beast that 1967 was. But 67 is a useful example. On the other hand, if it does do as I think, it should not surprise you since there was a previous SIMILAR..NOT EXACTLY THE SAME, but similar case to look at." On GFS he said "It certainly did not correct east, but here is what it did do It has a stronger feature from the north. This is critical because the southern branch error is usually to weaken it and flatten it, and the development that far off shore is a product of that. So there are no changes.except to say the 12z run did not step west and in fact, stepped east" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet-Phase Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 JB calls for snowpocalypse with every storm so eventually he was bound to hit one. And yes, LC is amazing! Calls it as he sees it and 'usually' he sees it correctly. I can't agree. I've watched JB explain his reasoning on potential storms threats for years and he's been more right than wrong especially when it comes to the more significant ones. I'd rather follow someone who sticks to reason and analogs and uses models to help fine tune rather than the model waffling mets that I see on TV and read on different forums and change amounts with every run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Agreed Jet Phase..... I can't agree. I've watched JB explain his reasoning on potential storms threats for years and he's been more right than wrong especially when it comes to the more significant ones. I'd rather follow someone who sticks to reason and analogs and uses models to help fine tune rather than the model waffling mets that I see on TV and read on different forums and change amounts with every run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 I can't agree. I've watched JB explain his reasoning on potential storms threats for years and he's been more right than wrong especially when it comes to the more significant ones. I'd rather follow someone who sticks to reason and analogs and uses models to help fine tune rather than the model waffling mets that I see on TV and read on different forums and change amounts with every run. x 2 JB loves snow and weather. I appreciate his passion and insight. As much as he looks for how things may correct in our favor, he also has no problem saying how things change or bust. He has a better long range nose than most in the business. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 you will all come around. years ago I felt the same way about JB. I even purchased AccuPro to read his blogs and watch his videos (Big Dog,Long Ranger etc), but after years of listening to him I came to the same conclusion of nearly eveyone who has followed him at one point or another.....he is always pushing the big dog, even when it is obviously not there in the slightest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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