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famartin

Vendor forecast thread

661 posts in this topic

The greatest threat for a landfalling hurricane along the U.S. coastline will be between Eastport, ME & Brownsville, TX

He's going with the in-close development with east coast threats with very little coming out of the deep tropics with

cooler than normal water and dry air forecasted.    I think he said 9 total storms, 2-3 majors and 70-90 ACE.

I see LC with similar numbers, but more focus in the gulf than east coast.

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I know you all have been wondering about this. :)

 

This is regarding your forecasts from the "local on the 8's" via The Weather Channel and Comcast as your cable provider (not sure if other providers are doing this as well). Just for kicks, I sent in a question why the location for my "local on the 8's" is not even in the same county. It all comes down to Comcast consolidating equipment areas. At least I got a response from The Weather Channel today, which stated:

"Comcast Cable is consolidating areas within a number of television markets across the country. When a cable company consolidates equipment, they will combine two (2) or more units into one and serve a larger geographical area. We, at The Weather Channel, when notified about the consolidation, will revise the area served data to suit all viewers. The cable company typically picks the forecast point name; in this case it is Audubon, New Jersey.

We are in a partnership with Comcast and are working together to provide the most critical weather data and local forecasts, as well as severe weather alerts for your area. We would encourage you to contact your local Comcast office and provide them with your feedback on this change as we continue to work with them to bring you your local weather forecasts for Mount Holly, Moorestown and Burlington County, New Jersey".

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From Larry Cosgrove at Weatheramerica - another potential nor'easter for Halloween with maybe some high ground snows...

 
"Despite the tendency to have mild weather over much of the U.S. in the short range forecast, the presence of a modest blocking signal over Alaska will have downstream impacts by next weekend. Shortwave energy in central Canada will dig into Appalachia, possibly forming a closed (and cold) 500MB low by November 1. While the operational GFS and GGEM schemes have tended to view this feature as a progressive cold intrusion (bordering on cA character), the ECMWF panels have advertised the formation of a significant surface storm near Cape Hatteras.  
 
Note the Rex signature over Quebec and Labrador after Saturday. If this minor block is for real (and I think that is indeed the case), we may see another Nor'easter with two or three days of wind and rain from Virginia northward to Nova Scotia in the November 1 - 4 time frame. And yes, higher elevations on the western edge of the precipitation shield (do you hear me Interstate 79 and 81 corridors....) could see the first accumulating snow of the season."

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JB has the upper low going from Toledo to Elkins to Richmond VA with snow from the mountain of NC up to Maine with snow possibly getting as far south and near the coast as North Jersey

And he still doesn't let this track go today even in the face of zero model support.

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And he still doesn't let this track go today even in the face of zero model support.

He did a great job with nailing this storm way in advance and I do like his admitting his bias (which we all know of holding on too long).

Like him or not he is good with overall patterns....IMHO

October 31 06:51 PM

 

It is likely you will not live through a period like this again. No, not the individual storms, but the amount of variables being thrown at you at once, exposing the helplessness of longer range models. Man, being a smart creature will adjust and next time we see a major climatic shift, the model should be ready.

That being said, once they caught on to this system now, they have done good. Some of the old biases did not occur, and my bias of hanging on too long did, so its machine over man when it comes to the end game here. Since no one was looking a week ago, the fact that this was picked out then likely does not matter to most.

Going forward, I think since Feb 2013 there has been a major model bias to warm overall in the longer range. Many lah de dah, its going to be warm long range forecasts have been blown out of the water. Its that simple. Occasionally Sept 2013, and Oct 2014 have shown up, but by and large. 10-15 days the major models that the markets have been glued too have been too warm in the month ahead and the season ahead.

But if this winter turns out to be even nastier than we have, it wasnt that there were not hints

 

Look at this snowcover.. close to the all time record for the last day of October

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From Larry Cosgrove at WeatherAmerica and his weekly newsletter

"As I reviewed weather forecast charts over the past few days, my memory was jogged back to a time when incessant cold intrusions, massive winter storms, and extensive blocking signatures were the rule and not the exception. I am talking about the late 1970s, a magical time in my life when forecasting the weather was far more difficult than what is the case today. However, the predictions were more exciting not just because of difficulty (computer modeling was in its infancy, with only the Barotropic, LFM, and AVN series to choose from), but also because if you liked the challenges and the eventual extreme outcome, you got to view history in the making.

All of this nostalgia has a point, you see. It has been a long while since I saw nearly all of the numerical models set up a triple or quadruple blocking signature with an active southern branch jet stream. Even more bizarre is the notion is that this configuration could last for two weeks or more! You see, if you review even the extreme cold seasons of the 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s, the radical cAk plunges were quite progressive. Colder monthly averages were achieved by multiple delivery of colder values, not by a routine day-after-day cold spells. This "long lived chill" is the scenario we may be facing for much of the rest of November, IF the equations verify!

There seems to be some agreement also on the idea of yet another storm taking shape in southern Texas around November 20. The most probable track for this system is probably a "Miller A" type along the Gulf Coast and then running up along the Eastern Seaboard. If we do maintain a mild West vs. cold Central and East alignment, the snowpack will drop as far south as the Ozark Plateau, Tennessee Valley, and possibly just to the right of the Appalachian Mountains (NC to ME). Remember that the more snow we get farther south only favors a longer stay of cold air and more of a "duration winter". I am still sticking with the idea that after a volatile late November and December (leaning cold but still capable of some warmer "burps" east of the High Plains), that we settle into a rather painful stormy and bitterly cold period from January through much of March. So far the analog comparisons have been correct with respect to the coldest values this month being mainly between the Rocky Mountains and Appalachia.

Speaking of analogs, I am toying with the idea of adding 1976-77 and 1957-1958 to the roster of comparative winters. The ferocious 1976 set-up had help from a typhoon injection (just like Nuri), while the fall of 1957 saw a very warm SST anomaly along the entire eastern shoreline of the Pacific Ocean. The former period had a lasting and strong national warm-up starting in mid-February, while the latter was notorous for its balmy December followed by a brutal JFM time frame. The 500MB and temperature deviation charts for the DJFM realm are included above, using the additional analogs.

"Mild West, Cold, Stormy Central And East" may be ringing in your brain this winter. Along with high energy and grocery bills, too."

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2015 is like the all star winter with all the big names in the lineup for a great winter.

Just when you think it is a lock - guess what they all go down the sh#$ter. Long range Euro and GFS look warm or at least normal.

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Just when you think it is a lock - guess what they all go down the sh#$ter. Long range Euro and GFS look warm or at least normal.

It's November. Come mid December when we still haven't been that cold or gotten a ton of snow yet. ( this winter has a decent chance to start slow because of the Nino ) all the weenies will be jumping off the Philly bridges and miss all the fun in jan and feb.

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Might be biased.... Maybe it's the bowtie....

Regardless, I personally think he's best around.

Call me crazy.

 

You're not. He is the best around Philly..

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