tdp146 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 You're on the right track. As far as the ridge axis is concerned, it's more about the amplitude than the position..although the axis being slightly father west would help. We need it to be more amplified and aid in a more N to S flow in the mid levels on the eastern periphery of the ridge. That'll allow the incoming shortwave to dig farther south than east.Ok. So again, to my untrained eye, I would say the ridge axis as shown by the WPC is ever so slightly more amped. But that little bit of extra amplification really leads to more digging of the trough axis. I would say the trough axis is digging noticeably more in the WPC map compared to what you were showing (is your map from the gfs?). The amount of amplification doesn't really look all that impressive but it has pretty large downstream impacts on the digging of the trough. Are we then maybe not really going to need THAT much more of an amped up ridge axis to get a pretty big shift down stream? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Ok. So again, to my untrained eye, I would say the ridge axis as shown by the WPC is ever so slightly more amped. But that little bit of extra amplification really leads to more digging of the trough axis. I would say the trough axis is digging noticeably more in the WPC map compared to what you were showing (is your map from the gfs?). The amount of amplification doesn't really look all that impressive but it has pretty large downstream impacts on the digging of the trough. Are we then maybe not really going to need THAT much more of an amped up ridge axis to get a pretty big shift down stream? what we are going to really need is the trough to start going negative in time and this will cause the precip to be thrown back into the coast as the flow starts coming in from the southeast - neutral trough all the way is not going to be enough in this situation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC Weather Lover Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Here's my analysis of the storm as seen on my webpage: Sorry for those fed up with winter (or now spring), but it looks like the rougher side of March may strike yet again. What I mean about this is that there is a storm brewing for Tuesday (3/25) into Wednesday (3/26). There are two tracks for this storm. One is that it will ride up the coast and be a major nor’easter with significant accumulation. The other is that it will move further east and just brush us with light accumulation. There is a third scenario that this storm will go completely out to sea, but I’m pretty confident we will get SOMETHING from this, whether it be heavy snow or flurries. I’m also pretty confident that this will be a major storm. The question becomes for who? Now, there are two types of storms that occur during this time of the year, Miller A storms and Miller B storms. Miller B storms are what we’ve seen most of this year, with the area of low pressure starting from the north central part of the US and dropping down and up into the eastern seaboard. During these storms, the trends are usually either north or south. However, there are also Miller A storms. These storms originate from the gulf and come up the eastern seaboard, and hug the coast. This is what this storm is. We have not actually seen any of these this winter. Now certain models have their picks. The two most commonly used and reliable models are the GFS and the European. The GFS or global forecasting model seems to do better with Miller B storms. However, for this type of storm (Miller A), the GFS does worse with and therefore is not as reliable for this event. The European model seems to do better with events like this, the Miller A storms. It is a more reliable model. The GFS has it going out to sea, brushing our eastern sections with light snow. The Euro has it going slightly closer to the coast, with slightly more snow. This is as of now. The models this morning were a lot different. This WILL change. This is just what the models show right now. If you hear that models are trending east, think less snow. If you hear models are trending west, think more snow. Another thing with this and other storms is that we have to wait until the main moisture source comes into the US mainland. This will happen sometime tomorrow night. Then, the models will be much more reliable and will know the nature of the storm much better. As of now, snow, rain, wind, coastal flooding, and beach erosion are all possibilities with this event. The question becomes, will these impacts be significant or minor? This is what we’ll be finding out over the next couple of days. Snow accumulation will not be mentioned until at least Sunday afternoon. This threat has to be watched very closely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Are we then maybe not really going to need THAT much more of an amped up ridge axis to get a pretty big shift down stream? 146 go to the head of the class watch for the surface track updates from the WPC Upton disco http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off WOULD LIKE TO SEE A STRONGER SIGNAL OF SHORTWAVE PHASING AND/OR AN EARLIER CLOSING OF THE 500MB LOW BEFORE BEING MORE CONVINCED THAT THIS STORM WILL ACTUALLY END UP CLOSE ENOUGH FOR THE LIKELIHOOD OF SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. THE STORM WOULD OTHERWISE BE MORE PROGRESSIVE...NOTING ALSO A LACK OF DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING. GIVEN RECENT TRENDS AND ENSEMBLE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A SLIGHT NW TRACK NUDGE OF THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS FOR THE NEXT CYCLE OR TWO. MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THE STORM TRACK HAS NOT CHANGED ALL THAT MUCH FROM THE 00Z SUITE...AND WE ARE NOW ONLY 12 HOURS CLOSER TO AN EVENT THAT MAY START 4 DAYS FROM NOW. WILL THEREFORE HOLD OFF ON PUTTING A MENTION OF POTENTIAL WARNING-LEVEL IMPACTS IN THE HWO AND WILL CAP POPS AT 50 PERCENT FOR THE EVENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 0Z NAM at 84 hours looks kind of weird to say the least - but I guess it is supposed to at 84 hours http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2014032200/nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_27.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 what we are going to really need is the trough to start going negative in time and this will cause the precip to be thrown back into the coast as the flow starts coming in from the southeast - neutral trough all the way is not going to be enough in this situation Yes but saying we need the trough to go negative is like saying we need the slp closer to the coast. All true but it won't just happen on its own. The amplitude of the western Ridge will aide in the trough going negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Yes but saying we need the trough to go negative is like saying we need the slp closer to the coast. All true but it won't just happen on its own. The amplitude of the western Ridge will aide in the trough going negative. this is the reason the models are struggling with this without any accurate sampling available - very complex situation timing , speed , exact positioning of all these variables etc etc - can't trust any solution YET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 this is the reason the models are struggling with this without any accurate sampling available - very complex situation timing , speed , exact positioning of all these variables etc etc - can't trust any solution YET Exactly so we focus on the big picture. And I can't say I'm enthused by what I'm seeing so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 22, 2014 Author Share Posted March 22, 2014 Ok. So again, to my untrained eye, I would say the ridge axis as shown by the WPC is ever so slightly more amped. But that little bit of extra amplification really leads to more digging of the trough axis. I would say the trough axis is digging noticeably more in the WPC map compared to what you were showing (is your map from the gfs?). The amount of amplification doesn't really look all that impressive but it has pretty large downstream impacts on the digging of the trough. Are we then maybe not really going to need THAT much more of an amped up ridge axis to get a pretty big shift down stream? Yeah, this is what I was driving at. Although we still need changes, I don't think they are particularly wild changes and as you mentioned a slight tick west or more amplified could have major implications with the result as the entire thing evolves eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Ok : hypothetical question to Red taggers, if ud be kind enough, what is the upper limit of potential in this scenario? Is it possible if storm inside BM ( but not 2 much) and phasing occurs quickly enough , negative early is it possible to See April Fool's 97 Redux in KNYC for example? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Ok : hypothetical question to Red taggers, if ud be kind enough, what is the upper limit of potential in this scenario? Is it possible if storm inside BM ( but not 2 much) and phasing occurs quickly enough , negative early is it possible to See April Fool's 97 Redux in KNYC for example? You don't want an April 97 redux in NYC This storm doesn't look like it goes stationary even if it were to track further west. But 1 foot plus certainly wouldn't be out of the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Yeah, this is what I was driving at. Although we still need changes, I don't think they are particularly wild changes and as you mentioned a slight tick west or more amplified could have major implications with the result as the entire thing evolves eastward. Since its almost game time with tonights 00z, what are your gut feelings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 You don't want an April 97 redux in NYC This storm doesn't look like it goes stationary even if it were to track further west. But 1 foot plus certainly wouldn't be out of the question. I meant April 97 ( that BoS had ) but I thank u. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I meant April 97 ( that BoS had ) but I thank u. I figured but thought I'd remind you that NYC gets screwed oddly at times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Since its almost game time with tonights 00z, what are your gut feelings? NAM at 84 looks like it would spin up a coastal but off the coast after 84 hours. Nice phasing: Wonder what the GFS will do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Yeah, this is what I was driving at. Although we still need changes, I don't think they are particularly wild changes and as you mentioned a slight tick west or more amplified could have major implications with the result as the entire thing evolves eastward.. Understood. Peeling back the onion to understand what slight changes to look for upstream. And Doorman- maybe I earned like my weenie yellow belt tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I figured but thought I'd remind you that NYC gets screwed oddly at times Im an 'Old man' I remember all the different ways we have gotten screwed LOL. that day I drovw over the GWB into Heavy snow at 2 inches an hour and back into rain in the city & then mixed raain & snow in Queens. Storm lasted off and on for 12 hours and we wound up with a highly screwy & wet 3 inches in queens while 30 miles away there was 12-15 inches and in Boston their biggest snow storm a tthe tim. 27.2 I believe. It was a birthday I shall never forget fpr all the wrong reasons! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 The CRAS doesn't look bad at mid levels but the surface is meh....here's a look at 500mb and the phase: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurr_Tracker13 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 00z GFS is now running. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I'd actually like to see verification score comparisons between the CRAS and the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I'd actually like to see verification score comparisons between the CRAS and the NAM. Equally as awful?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 At 12 hours, you can see the slight nuances in the amplitude of the northern Alaskan ridging coupled with the downstream effects on the north Atlantic Pacific Northern Pacific Pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Wow the WPC has a sub 968 just east of the benchmark. Very interesting they agree on a more westward track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Wow the WPC has a sub 968 just east of the benchmark. Very interesting they agree on a more westward track. And more bullish than most models on projected 5 day QPF as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 No GFS pbp?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 No GFS pbp?? Crickets......no super storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 No GFS pbp?? Meh. Nothing of substance to report on so far... should hold serve I would think. Edit: if anything, things look a bit flatter through hour 66. "Meh" remains the word of choice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Looks better phased @ 90, trough axis is also more negative than 18z, i think this will be a tick west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurr_Tracker13 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Looks maybe a tad west can't really tell its close right now at hour 93. More to come soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 MUCH better run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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