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March 11-12th Winter Storm


Chicago Storm

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Euro coming in stronger and better QPF in cold sector as well. Track is now along river ( vs just south ) but ends up at nearly the same point in WV as 12z except it is showing a 988mb low vs 992mb on 12z..

 

Almost .75 in LAF on this run with the .50+ line running from Kankakee east and along the MI border.

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Euro coming in stronger and better QPF in cold sector as well. Track is now along river ( vs just south ) but ends up at nearly the same point in WV as 12z except it is showing a 988mb low vs 992mb on 12z..

 

Almost .75 in LAF on this run with the .50+ line running from Kankakee east and along the MI border.

 

Agreed 7-9" for LAF on the Euro based on Kuchera snowfall method, I suspect that this will be the last major winter storm that will affect the LAF area.  Hope it holds for you guys.  I suspect it will.

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If the northern stream allows the entire mass to eject out.................

Not believing that, climo would suggest it should be warming up to the se, the only way that this ejects out if the northern stream is dominant, and drops further south, I believe the baroclinic zone is set up properly on the Euro.

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Not believing that, climo would suggest it should be warming up to the se, the only way that this ejects out if the northern stream is dominant, and drops further south, I believe the baroclinic zone is set up properly on the Euro.

 

 

It almost follows the snow cover line interestingly enough.. Will probably see more wobbles between now and then but yeah something closer to the euro idea is looking better.

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Two consistent EURO runs. I guess that's something.

Another little uptick in QPF. Now has the 0.5" QPF line up to hamilton with 0.3-0.4" across the GTA. Only red flag I am seeing is a less impressive defo zone on the ensembles and OP. May be the case where the meso's handle it better inside ~48hrs.

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Another little uptick in QPF. Now has the 0.5" QPF line up to hamilton with 0.3-0.4" across the GTA. Only red flag I am seeing is a less impressive defo zone on the ensembles and OP. May be the case where the meso's handle it better inside ~48hrs.

 

I'm not feeling this. Trough axis is too far east, even on the EURO, to really get us good. 

 

The few decent GEFS solutions at 0z were gone at 6z.

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0z Euro pretty much the pinnacle run for here. No where to go but down now, haha.

 

Other than a few blips, Euro and its ensembles have been insistent on this storm being a bigger deal for the region. Have to like that idea. Finer details and who gets hit is still very much TBD. 

 

IND saying no big deal...going with the old warm ground defense. Oy vey. 

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0z Euro ensembles at 96 hours seem to indicate some "left of the mean" members. Will in the SNE forum mentioned how the PNA ridge keeps getting a bit flatter with each run...and if that continues, this could run run through NY state. If of course. Certainly would watch that possibility for the southern ON crew.

 

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0z Euro ensembles at 96 hours seem to indicate some "left of the mean" members. Will in the SNE forum mentioned how the PNA ridge keeps getting a bit flatter with each run...and if that continues, this could run run through NY state. If of course. Certainly would watch that possibility for the southern ON crew.

 

attachicon.gif3:9 0z EC ENSM 96.gif

 

I've partially checked out with this one. Climatologically doesn't fit the bill for us.

 

Looks like the NAM is somewhat more amplified out in the Plains by 54. Just enough to keep me from completely shutting off the computer. 

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I've partially checked out with this one. Climatologically doesn't fit the bill for us.

 

Looks like the NAM is somewhat more amplified out in the Plains by 54. Just enough to keep me from completely shutting off the computer. 

 

I don't know...I don't see why you'd check out at all for GTA with this one, at this stage. But if the NAM is the only thing keeping your interest alive, pull the plug. ;)

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