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REDMK6GLI

March 7-8th Potential Coastal Storm Discussion

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The original OTS to our south idea from 10 days ago looks like it's working out.

 

240

 

 

96

 

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Take note of the clusters  west of WPC placement  -ATM

 

 

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/lowtracks/lowtrack_ensembles.gif

 

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/NAM/06/US/namUS_sfc_prec_084.gif

 

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/06/US/gfsUS_sfc_prec_084.gif

 

...STRENGTHENING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHING THE GULF COAST
STATES/SOUTHEAST WED THROUGH FRI...
...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO...LIFTING UP
OFF THE SOUTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC...

PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF/00Z ECMWF
CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE

THE 00Z NAM HAS TRENDED SLOWER AND STRONGER WITH THE HEIGHT FALLS
ASSOCD WITH THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING DOWN ACROSS THE
CNTRL/SRN PLAINS AND TWD THE GULF COAST STATES/SOUTHEAST WED
THROUGH FRI...BUT IT IS OVERALL THE WEAKEST SOLN REGARDING TROUGH
DEPTH COMPARED TO THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS. THE 00Z NAM ALSO
APPEARS A LITTLE WEAK WITH ITS SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NERN GULF
OF MEXICO AND OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY
FRI. THE 00Z UKMET FOR THE TIME BEING APPEARS TOO STRONG WITH ITS
HEIGHT FALLS/AMPLIFICATION AND HAS A STRONGER SFC LOW DEVELOPING
AND RIDING NEWD UP JUST OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE BY EARLY
FRI. THE 00Z ECMWF HOWEVER HAS TRENDED SLOWER AND STRONGER TWD THE
00Z UKMET. THE 00Z GEM GLOBAL HAS TRENDED STRONGER AS WELL...BUT
ITS SFC LOW PLACEMENT EARLY FRI IS NORTH OF THE GLOBAL MODEL
CONSENSUS JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE NC OUTER BANKS. THE GLOBAL MODEL
CONSENSUS IS A POSITION A LITTLE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST OF KILM. THIS
RAISES A QUESTION ABOUT THE 00Z GFS WHICH DOES HAVE A ROBUST AND
AMPLIFYING UPR TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST BY FRI...BUT WITH A SFC
LOW THAT IS RATHER WEAK AND FARTHER EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
ON FRI. THE 00Z GEFS MEAN DOES SUPPORT THIS...BUT THE GLOBAL
MODELS AND EVEN THE NAM BY EARLY FRI CLUSTER MORE STRONGER TO THE
LEFT OF THE GFS AND WITH A STRONGER SFC LOW DEVELOPING. THE
NON-NCEP MODELS HAVE TRENDED THIS WAY TOO. THE BEST MODEL
CLUSTERING WOULD SUPPORT THE UKMET AND ECMWF...BUT THEY MAY BE
JUST A TAD TOO SLOW AND TOO STRONG ALOFT. WILL BLEND THE PREV 12Z
ECMWF WITH THE 00Z ECMWF TO ACCOMMODATE THE LATEST TRENDS.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LIMITED.

 

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdhmd

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So all we track is snow storms now? I guess we should just shut this board down in a few weeks?

it was in all honesty, just a question. not being critical, no need to be nasty. 

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So all we track is snow storms now? I guess we should just shut this board down in a few weeks?

With all due respect brother, and this is not meant as a dig at you, you have a tendency in your posts to come off as condescending. You do contribute to this board quite a bit, and I don't think you mean to come off as such, yet many times you do brother.

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With all due respect brother, and this is not meant as a dig at you, you have a tendency in your posts to come off as condescending. You do contribute to this board quite a bit, and I don't think you mean to come off as such, yet many times you do brother.

He has a point.. this is a weather forum..not a snowstorm forum.

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He has a point.. this is a weather forum..not a snowstorm forum.

I never said his points are invalid, as I said he contributes quite a bit, yet there's a way to make that point without coming off so condescending. I'm not just referring to this post, I've seen many of his posts come off this way. I just think it's a shame because he has valid points many times but the way he comes off overshadows his validity at times.

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I never said his points are invalid, as I said he contributes quite a bit, yet there's a way to make that point without coming off so condescending. I'm not just referring to this post, I've seen many of his posts come off this way. I just think it's a shame because he has valid points many times but the way he comes off overshadows his validity at times.

Its not the 1st time that point has been made and yet again & AGAIN & yet again  Yanksfan comes off as highly defensive when there is no need for it. This is not bottom of the 9th , you, Yanksfan, arent Rivera against Arizona in the W.S. Its a weather forum & you need to be respectful of the professionals & the weather amateurists in here. Quite frankly  I dont come here for stress but ,rather, a healthy learning environment & discussion. So Please CUT IT OUT & thank you.

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I never said his points are invalid, as I said he contributes quite a bit, yet there's a way to make that point without coming off so condescending. I'm not just referring to this post, I've seen many of his posts come off this way. I just think it's a shame because he has valid points many times but the way he comes off overshadows his validity at times.

agree with all these points, yes this is a weather forum.. but truth be told, most people here are rooting for snow storms, hence the reason why the board is dead in the summer.  and lets be honest, he seems to be the only one tracking this threat....

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I agree about the weather forum and now is the time of year where rain is primarily the form of precip but weather is weather.

I can't believe the averages are now getting close to 50 and temps are still so cold. Even the warmest day this week, probably Saturday could be right around or a couple degrees above normal before things get colder again. I think odds are probably 20% higher than normal for one last snow event given the pattern but with ever passing day it becomes more and more difficult.

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agree with all these points, yes this is a weather forum.. but truth be told, most people here are rooting for snow storms, hence the reason why the board is dead in the summer.  and lets be honest, he seems to be the only one tracking this threat....

If you think it's time to dismiss this at day 4 then you haven't been paying much attention this year.

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If you think it's time to dismiss this at day 4 then you haven't been paying much attention this year.

yanks ur totally right about dismissing a day 4 threat...truth be told im a tax accoutnant, so my life is consumed with tax returns right now... so all i ahve heard was temps near 50 by end of the week...   so i stand corrected if i was wrong

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I personally have given up on the late week threat, the pattern looks favorable for the 12-17th though...

The GFS has been consistently trying to show something on the 9th although best chance is probably north of NYC and for SNE but it's been there about 8 runs in a row

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