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REDMK6GLI, March 2, 2014 in New York City Metro
EURO too warm... next
This 7th to 8th potential is very low ATM. We should be focusing on the 9th potential and the second half of next week per the GFS.
The original OTS to our south idea from 10 days ago looks like it's working out.
Day 8-9 system still looks fantastic on the Euro.
Take note of the clusters west of WPC placement -ATM
...STRENGTHENING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHING THE GULF COASTSTATES/SOUTHEAST WED THROUGH FRI......SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO...LIFTING UPOFF THE SOUTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC...PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF/00Z ECMWFCONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGETHE 00Z NAM HAS TRENDED SLOWER AND STRONGER WITH THE HEIGHT FALLSASSOCD WITH THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING DOWN ACROSS THECNTRL/SRN PLAINS AND TWD THE GULF COAST STATES/SOUTHEAST WEDTHROUGH FRI...BUT IT IS OVERALL THE WEAKEST SOLN REGARDING TROUGHDEPTH COMPARED TO THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS. THE 00Z NAM ALSOAPPEARS A LITTLE WEAK WITH ITS SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NERN GULFOF MEXICO AND OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES BYFRI. THE 00Z UKMET FOR THE TIME BEING APPEARS TOO STRONG WITH ITSHEIGHT FALLS/AMPLIFICATION AND HAS A STRONGER SFC LOW DEVELOPINGAND RIDING NEWD UP JUST OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE BY EARLYFRI. THE 00Z ECMWF HOWEVER HAS TRENDED SLOWER AND STRONGER TWD THE00Z UKMET. THE 00Z GEM GLOBAL HAS TRENDED STRONGER AS WELL...BUTITS SFC LOW PLACEMENT EARLY FRI IS NORTH OF THE GLOBAL MODELCONSENSUS JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE NC OUTER BANKS. THE GLOBAL MODELCONSENSUS IS A POSITION A LITTLE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST OF KILM. THISRAISES A QUESTION ABOUT THE 00Z GFS WHICH DOES HAVE A ROBUST ANDAMPLIFYING UPR TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST BY FRI...BUT WITH A SFCLOW THAT IS RATHER WEAK AND FARTHER EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COASTON FRI. THE 00Z GEFS MEAN DOES SUPPORT THIS...BUT THE GLOBALMODELS AND EVEN THE NAM BY EARLY FRI CLUSTER MORE STRONGER TO THELEFT OF THE GFS AND WITH A STRONGER SFC LOW DEVELOPING. THENON-NCEP MODELS HAVE TRENDED THIS WAY TOO. THE BEST MODELCLUSTERING WOULD SUPPORT THE UKMET AND ECMWF...BUT THEY MAY BEJUST A TAD TOO SLOW AND TOO STRONG ALOFT. WILL BLEND THE PREV 12ZECMWF WITH THE 00Z ECMWF TO ACCOMMODATE THE LATEST TRENDS.CONFIDENCE REMAINS LIMITED.
Looks like the 12z NAM is coming way north.
Closes off down south. Just need a bit more of a negative tilt to the trough.
maybe we'll get lucky and snag some light rain
thats about what it looks like it will be if it makes it up the coast
We need to wash away the salt now.
We don't see any northern stream interaction. It's likely a either miss or some light rain for us.
Your dry humor really makes me laugh sometimes
Some bit hits today on the updated CIPS analogs for 60 hours including 2/11/94, 1/27/94 (ZR special), 2/11/83 and 2/16/03.
Only 4 of the top 15 analogs have less than 0.50" of QPF.
if this is storm happens to come up the coast, it will be rain correct? So why bother tracking?
I don't think it's a foregone conclusion that their won't be any northern stream interaction. All we need is one little piece to break off.
So all we track is snow storms now? I guess we should just shut this board down in a few weeks?
it was in all honesty, just a question. not being critical, no need to be nasty.
Nothing is off the table at this juncture, including clear skies and a snowstorm.
With all due respect brother, and this is not meant as a dig at you, you have a tendency in your posts to come off as condescending. You do contribute to this board quite a bit, and I don't think you mean to come off as such, yet many times you do brother.
He has a point.. this is a weather forum..not a snowstorm forum.
He has a point.. this is a weather forum..not a snowstorm forum.
Agree, even if it is a rain event, we could have snow melt issues along with flooding and ice jams if there was enough rain and warm temps. It's not just about snowfall.
I never said his points are invalid, as I said he contributes quite a bit, yet there's a way to make that point without coming off so condescending. I'm not just referring to this post, I've seen many of his posts come off this way. I just think it's a shame because he has valid points many times but the way he comes off overshadows his validity at times.
Its not the 1st time that point has been made and yet again & AGAIN & yet again Yanksfan comes off as highly defensive when there is no need for it. This is not bottom of the 9th , you, Yanksfan, arent Rivera against Arizona in the W.S. Its a weather forum & you need to be respectful of the professionals & the weather amateurists in here. Quite frankly I dont come here for stress but ,rather, a healthy learning environment & discussion. So Please CUT IT OUT & thank you.
agree with all these points, yes this is a weather forum.. but truth be told, most people here are rooting for snow storms, hence the reason why the board is dead in the summer. and lets be honest, he seems to be the only one tracking this threat....
I agree about the weather forum and now is the time of year where rain is primarily the form of precip but weather is weather.
I can't believe the averages are now getting close to 50 and temps are still so cold. Even the warmest day this week, probably Saturday could be right around or a couple degrees above normal before things get colder again. I think odds are probably 20% higher than normal for one last snow event given the pattern but with ever passing day it becomes more and more difficult.
I don't mean to come off as nasty or condescending. I understand that most people are here for snow events, but that occupies a very small percentage of the events during the course of the year. I stay here all year round.
If you think it's time to dismiss this at day 4 then you haven't been paying much attention this year.
yanks ur totally right about dismissing a day 4 threat...truth be told im a tax accoutnant, so my life is consumed with tax returns right now... so all i ahve heard was temps near 50 by end of the week... so i stand corrected if i was wrong
I personally have given up on the late week threat, the pattern looks favorable for the 12-17th though...
The GFS has been consistently trying to show something on the 9th although best chance is probably north of NYC and for SNE but it's been there about 8 runs in a row
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